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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

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Symbol
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Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
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216.33
-0.32(-0.15%)
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US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Bad,200 target soon...
Funds aren’t done dumping their longs…
New day? Keep selling is their mentality
Ryan DeLoach, thanks Ry
but wouldn't there be a lack of coffee in Brazil? Small 23/24 harvest and no carryover stocks? What happened to such a large volume exported from Jul23 to Apr24?
about 2 weeks ago, price hit 3 per bag in many markets.... so expect lots of supply
300
hi ❤️
213 is here, I thinking to go outside.
Cecafe for today, certs: A - 3.51mb, R - 717kb vs shipped A = 3.105mb, R = 847kb in March. Demand is doing just fine ! :) :) :)
Thank you for your responses. Today we also have a lot of new bags on ICE. The situation in the markets is not calm either. Let's see if the 200 will hold up this time. If the problems are real it should.
Daj link na ICE? Jak sprawdzasz
Again, you can feel the rugpull before it happens. Robusta running out of steam, Arabica struggling to keep a bid, funds fairly long. Rally is over. It was a good run (sort of).
Where do you see the price in Sept-Dec 2024 ?
No idea (and neither does anybody else). I am confident in where i think the mkt is “trying” to go a few wks at a time. Unless weather data gets worse, arabica is droping below 200 and robusta 3800.
So it has to go up or down, what about hanging around a level? But you are right, no one knows and sadly weather isn’t always a determinant factor in this commodity…
The flowers in Vietnam are the same as in Brazil, just if it rains
You're right.
Crazy how people are happy to hear bad news about coffee … sad
Pls. explain where "A lot of Coffee" is stored??
Hey maya...plz explain:you said there wasn't enough coffee...then we get 6M carryover ?
U R mistaken me for someone else - would you like to explain yourself and your claim?
I am wild bull ;)
Hilarius,up and dawn all day
You are the most frantic on these forums.
no?
yes?
Published on Apr 29th by CCCMG (Centro do Comercio de Cafe do Estado de Minas Gerais), shortly: El Nino effect, that caused high temps during the development of coffee fruit, is expected to affect 2024 harvest, causing the drop in state production (ES) about 30%. Despite this, the expectation is that there will be increase in the number of bags, reaching 11mb for conilon and 4mb for arabica. (cccmg.com.br, news section). We had a drop of around 30%. And we also had the rosette mealybug, which affected conilon's productivity”, says Incaper's state coffee growing coordinator, Fabiano Tristão.
Also note, that weather issues in Brazil were not something unique vs other origins like Asia, Africa, Islands, etc. Thus, some market participants may extrapolate kinda :) 30% (5 - 10 - 15 - 20%) onto other origins where similar or worse (!) weather conditions have been recorded and also keep in mind, that not all of those other origins are that advanced and efficient as BRAZIL is ! (In terms of tech, cultivars, management, etc.) With all of the anomalies recorded and for quite some time, to me personally it seems more reasonable to suppose that those factors would rather reduced the yield than otherwise :). Now, if you would imagine to what reduction such an extrapolation may lead ... :).
Export from Vietnam now should be watched - exports and ICE are only true numbers in the game :).
JG referred to higher mealybugs infestation in Gia Lai, etc. High temps and moist provide higher basis for it. All SE Asia was hot and moist...
Ok but why robusta is green and this one is RED?
One has more buyers than sellers and the other has more sellers than buyers.
Sounds like economics 101!
Guys, what is going on, any analysis? :(
What is wrong with thos coffe…
Yep, trash… Can’t keep a bid
Coffee “should” be going higher but yet isn’t… that’s usually a bad sign
Why did uou give me dislikes? Lol…
Guys any news please?
Why red? :(
Maja posted in her twitter about possibility of lower yield for current Brazilian harvest, related to irregular maturation, provoked by the weather issues, etc, citing her contacts. :) :) :) in both MG and ES (!). May be this is what JG meant while mentioning that some expect lighter yield ???
Thank you very much for your comments !!!
Ah, Maya... everytime she sasys we will have coffee trouble...we get millions of bags in carryover...
Maya is the bard of the apocalypse. It is important to remember this and take the correction.
Why so much up? Any news?
This is hopeless. You have Viriato's priceless analysis in front of your eyes, and yet you ask such questions. Make some effort.
Lol
Team Arabica here! ❤️
Again, top is in. Funds are all in and Arabica (trash) will drag down the coffee complex
This is real commodity, not crypto. When there is real supply problem, then sky is the limit. Look at cocoa, funds were all in from 4k, price went to 11k.
Specs are record long and commercials - short, no doubts. But if to look at cocoa monthly chart, it will be seen that Specs made record long high (well correlated with a previous) a bit below 4000, after what specs started reducing longs, commercials - shorts, and price went up to 12000. Not saying it must happen to coffee - nobody knows, but when catalyst is real it all may go a bit different...
Thanks for the confirmation, Ry.
OK, nice info Virato BUT what are your price predictions for this week and May?
Damian, calm down and respect your elders.
Respect me
Damian, I can't (unfortunately :)) predict the price. I'm personally bullish biased but it doesn't mean much. As I'm bullish I'm trying not to miss bullish developments (in my view !) on both, fundamental and technical fronts. But as KC always has life of its own (MGom :)), I always rely on stop loss :). In my view, for the bulls to be perfect now, the pull back should stop within 200 - 215 cluster.
Interesting facts: as of April 2024 only 2010 had warmer sea surface temp in the Atlantic main development region vs 2024 and only a few years are in the same context as 2024 and those years are: 2023, 2010, 2005, 1969 and 1958. Those years were marked by strong hurricane activity and besides ... years 1958, 1969, 2005, 2010 correlate with drought in NEB. MG/coffee areas are not exactly the same as all NEB but still :) ...
Very rough production numbers for the origins that have recorded high temps (in general, not exactly coffee areas !!! ): SE Asia and Oceania - 50mb, Africa - 20mb, Caribe/CA/Mexico - 19mb, in total - about 89mb. 4mb of 89mb is about 4.5%. Nobody knows, but assuming the total quantity of origins and recorded temps, it doesn't seem to be impossible... Also, not all the origins are that tech savvy and advanced as Brazil is... And some w-guys say the heat will/may continue into May... Nobody knows again, but all those weather anomalies have been recorded, it's not a random guess to please the one's dream of market move...
For instance, heat wave continues in Asia, over 40C in many countries (in general). Karnataka and Kerala suffered some dry spells and high temps (roughly 2/3 of Indian coffee), at the same time coffee shops quantity is rising and so consumption... This is from Indian media. Nothing dramatic, no devastated crops in sight, but expecting some reduction (or narration at least :)) wouldn't be strange... Though other news from the beginning of April citing drying rivers and so some coffee farms affected, etc... All in all, the point is that while it's impossible to define the extent at the moment, news about good crop development are completely absent...
That was the headline: Drought looms over Chikkamagaluru as rivers run dry in Karnataka's coffee hub. First published on April 5th. :) :) :)
...
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