US Small Cap 2000 (RUT)

Amir. Haidar

I want to make money online

FED should really start cutting the rates on May without asking anyone… It is time… The later they cut, the worst it will get… Big Stock markets are already high, nothing is going to happen if they start now…

I don't have time to elaborate further, due to work, but WaveTech is finally looking positive for Russell 2000. Daily chart warned for past couple weeks that there'd be a downtick yesterday, 4/25, and more weakness into V-E Day, 5/8, but today was supposed to begin a reversal, which is stronger than I would have expected regardless of 8:30 inflation report, and this relief rally looks to top briefly around May Day, consolidate through 5/8, and from there we'll have to see if the forecast has changed, but the weekly RUT WaveTech momentum indicates rally continues through end of spring, probably July, before another long consolidation retreat like we appear to be finishing between this week and 2nd week of May. WaveTech Fibonacci projection suggests (doesn't say how probable yet) an upside target on the weekly chart that seems ridiculously high. Instead, I'll share the more believable number, which is 10-week moving avg. to near 2100 around Independence Day. To get a 10-WMA up there, the intraday high must be much much higher. WaveTech can change its projections based on new facts (data), but we got bad data, and the algos can pick up on the calculus under the hood and sees buying despite fear, which tends to lead to FOMO rally. Good luck. I exited most of my IWM puts this morning, and exit the rest early next week, while holding large IWM call position into EOM if not July. And I moved my 401k funds from 55% stable funds--per my warning here in March of this decline that appeared to be consolidation, but too soon to be sure that's all it is--so that by this weekend, all but 18% is in equity or bond funds. (TLT and other Treasuries have probably bottomed out yesterday, so I sold my TLT puts at 45% gain yesterday, one of my two largest positions this week, but volatility doesn't improve until after 5/3.)

I suspect an Amazon beat next week, and not sure about Apple, so should he a decent week. After that could be downturn based on what Timothy predicted. I’m about half TQQQ and half TNA and will maneuver back and forth depending on which one rises or drops. By June 1, I’ll be back to at least 75% TNA (small cap) for the next year. Any rate cut this year will move this index over 2,250.

So both good GDP and soft GDP are bad. The Fed has stuck the market in a cell with no doors.

So basically the downtrend today across all indexes is from META and the PCE index, and not math. I’d say that wave tech has been off two werks in a row. Not sure I trust it anymore

10000

End of day run up.

1000000

Despite the VIX giving technical analysts a broad market buy signal, beware the downtrend will not subside for at least a week, probably two and can't rule out longer this far out. While WaveTech has been wrong this week for first time in a while regarding the timing and severity this week, it was correct that stocks would end the week lower, and Treasury yields higher. All daily charts of SPX, RUT, TLT and US 30-year Yield (good measure for mortgage rates, risk off markets and yield curve steepness) indicate the same continued direction overall next week, especially by end of next week. They also indicate that reversals are beginning to form, and that we should expect next Wed. or more likely next Friday will hit an extreme in the current direction (stocks and bonds selloff), reverse in a relief rally that is tested week later around May 8 (so another bearish period). Those wanting to reduce risk should wait until after May 8th add long positions.

You can see from this hourly chart that selling pressure has lost momentum, and the INITIAL stages of a bottoming formation is POSSIBLE, based on intraday charts. However, daily chart of RUT (and SPX, NDX, Dow) indicate selling pressure doesn't completely dissipate until a week into May. This bottoming phase allows us to make money in both directions, although small caps continue have a weaker support structure than large caps, which makes sense when rates are in restrictive territory.

As Christopher and I've noted, WaveTech's forecast wasn't right last week for a bounce around this past Tuesday, holding on maybe till today/Thurs., before diving lower by Friday, and especially early next week. But I'll share my interpretation of its updated projections on momentum and moving averages. The 3-hour chart, or half-session chart (9:30-12:30, 12:30-15:30, 15:30-16:00) indicates max weakness was yesterday afternoon. So the selling was so intense, it moved up (earlier) the approximate lowest half-session period (could still be a more granular interval low). It shows overall improvement/uptrend through end of April, but with dips this Friday afternoon, Monday being unclear (leans weak but more likely choppy), and beyond that too early to even discuss. The daily reacts more slowly to market forces than intraday, but it's also a stronger force since longer periods of momentum outweigh shorter intervals, just like an ocean wave formed by a tanker ship that hits a counter direction smaller boat will overwhelm it despite some choppiness when they meet. Daily indicates downtrend continues, we don't see 'relief' stabilization forming until April 29, but with choppiness and a test of the low around May 8, V-E Day anniversary. Beyond that the weekly indicates a multi week rally.

I wonder if Israel is concerned about the stock market. Maybe they’ll hold off retaliation until after it rebounds.

small cap stocks big positive side up move come don't hold selling position buy fast up move come

F this. Goodbye

Wave Tech 0 - 3 this week.

Let’s see. Fed contradicting itself, unrealistic inflation metrics and Israel ready to carpet bomb Iran. Looks like any bounce will be sold. Wave Tech can handle the Middle East

Truly frustrating

What does Wave Tech have to say about what just happened? I assumed Israel attacked which they will at some point

Over the years, I’ve lost at least $800k of opportunity by selling when I got scared. It won’t happen again.

8.5% off its high a little more than two weeks ago, so go ahead and sell. Inflation is by far the biggest small cap bogey man, and it’s a non factor since the historical rate since 1914 is 3.3%. 2% is a pipe dream and the Fed knows it. The only way to get to 2% is a recession, which they won’t let happen. Current infiation is at the historical average.

It's been a few weeks since WaveTech got a day so wrong as yesterday, so close to the date, meaning yesterday looked constructive as late as Friday midday. I did notice late Friday that Monday was looking more volatile but nothing like what actually happened. As of 8:45 AM EST today, today shows weakness to stabilization in the morning and stabilization to some improvement this afternoon, with the real bounce being tomorrow (Wed.) and earlier portion of Thursday, before the next leg lower. This happens sometimes, where unexpected news extends a pattern and defers a reaction, and also can weaken or strengthen that reaction depending on the catalyst. I've seen this in the bond market. Bond yields were forecasted to rollover from bullish to bearish in late March or April, but sticky inflation reports have worsened credit markets, and consequently, all other markets, particularly risk assets like equities and cryptos. Unfortunately, I got suckered into buying IWM calls yesterday sooner than later, and am not confident whether the oversold bounce this week will let me exit without a loss, but I know not sell today.

I’d rather be homeless than sell, so F Wall Street.

Fear gauge at a 6 month high. Time to get back in the water.