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Nikolay Borisov
2 hours ago
testing area 212-214 /on 4h
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ICE US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCc1)
ICE
| Symbol | Exchange | Currency | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Derived | USD | Real-time | |
| KCc1 | ICE | USD | Delayed | |
| KCc2 | ICE | USD | Delayed | |
| KCc3 | ICE | USD | Delayed | |
| KCc4 | ICE | USD | Delayed | |
| KCc5 | ICE | USD | Delayed | |
| KCc6 | ICE | USD | Delayed | |
| KCc7 | ICE | USD | Delayed |
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211.30
+4.60
+2.23%
Type:
Commodity
Group:
Agriculture
- Prev. Close: 206.70
- Open: 207.00
- Day's Range: 206.35 - 213.25
US Coffee C
211.30
+4.60
+2.23%
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Comment Guidelines
Viriato Magalhaes
16 hours ago
Colombia was expected, figure was not clear but it was expected since Dec 2023 WM and T report. It has to be assumed that when previous USDA projection for 23/24 production was made, it was made on the production numbers, projected in 2023 reports and then some adjustments (if any) in World Markets and Trade report of Dec 2023. Thus, while projections for 24/25 are still projections only, reduction on previous 23/24 (22/23) numbers, in fact, form almost final :) view at 23/24.
So far projections 24/25 are flat on gross reduction on 23/24.
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ShortDude
1 hour ago
So many years and I still do not understand how it is possible that the size of the crop is known only after the harvest. And earlier forecasts are not worth much!
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Kenan Hajdari
1 hour ago
Speculation is the key
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ShortDude
56 minutes ago
One thing is for sure, Maya will go crazy on X today! 🤣
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Kenan Hajdari
48 minutes ago
She along with some keyboard bull warriors are champions
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Viriato Magalhaes
2 minutes ago
Short Dude. Consider, the one has 50ha farm, trees of different age, possibly different clones, different exposure, high density, different stage of ripening, size, weight, etc ... How he will calculate ? Experience/Intuition based only, unless you want you evaluation to be +/- 25% :). You need some certain percentage to be collected to be able to give a reasonable numbers...
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Viriato Magalhaes
17 hours ago
Honduras: 22/23 - reduction of 300kb; 23/24 : USDA - 6.5mb, POST - 5.5mb !!! (POST projection in 2023 for 23/24 was 7.92mb, now it is 5.5mb ... 2.42mb lower !!! ); projection 24/25 - 5.5mb.
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Viriato Magalhaes
16 hours ago
Honduras report is very confusing as it reflects POST's high level of uncertainty: 7.92mb vs 5.5mb for 23/24 = 2.42mb or 31% for a small production... As it is POST who is on the ground, the probability is high, that 5.5mb figure for 23/24 will be assumed in 2025 report. If this will be the case, total reduction vs previous projection for 23/24 will be 2.42mb ! Otherwise, it is 6.5mb vs previously projected 7.92mb = - 1.42mb. Assuming both reductions, 22/23 and 23/24 --1.72mb. And 24/25 projection of 5.5mb vs current 23/24 of 6.5mb is a projection of 1mb ... lower.
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Viriato Magalhaes
16 hours ago
Honduras is a good example. For the diff between 7.92mb and 5.5mb serious concerns have to be in play or, on the other hand, impossibility to come with more or less reasonable algorithm. Confusion in other words...
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Viriato Magalhaes
17 hours ago
Peru: 22/23 revised from 4.2mb to 3.4mb, 23/24 - 4.2mb, 24/25 projected - 4.22mb, 22/23 reduction 800kb, 24/25 vs 23/24 - flat.
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Viriato Magalhaes
17 hours ago
Consumption growth - about 4%.
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Viriato Magalhaes
17 hours ago
Nicaragua: FAS/Managua anticipates coffee production in marketing year 2024/25 to rebound to 2.6 million 60-
kilogram bags, as a return to average precipitation levels should support historical average yields.
However, Nicaraguan coffee growers face global structural headwinds in marketing year 2024/25 on top
of tight labor supplies needed to bring in the hand-picked coffee harvest. Dry conditions, reduced
production, and delayed harvesting – all associated with the 2023 El Niño weather system – reduced
overall coffee production in marketing year 2023/24 by ten percent.
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Viriato Magalhaes
17 hours ago
R is flat last 3 MY. A, assuming reduction 10% reduction for 23/24. looks like: 22/23 - 2.5mb, 23/24 USDA - 2.5mb, POST - 2.25mb, 24/25 projection - 2.45mb. Thus, if to consider POST for 23/24 to become final number (usually is), -250kb. Or flat as it would be enough also :)...
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Viriato Magalhaes
17 hours ago
Colombia: production for 23/24 was revised up to 12.2mb from 11.5mb (WM and T, dec 2023) previously projected, 24/25 is projected to reach 12.4mb, 200kb more vs 23/24. Increased rates of borer infestation admitted as Oscar was saying for months... Thus, 700kb should added to global balance :) 23/24 and roughly, 24/25 vs 23/24 production is seen ... flat.
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Viriato Magalhaes
18 hours ago
From Barchart news (just part of news): In a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) projected on May 3 that 2023/24 global coffee production would climb +5.8% y/y to 178 million bags due to an exceptional off-biennial crop year. ICO also projects global 2023/24 coffee consumption will rise +2.2% y/y to 177 million bags, resulting in a 1 million bag coffee surplus.
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Viriato Magalhaes
17 hours ago
USDA in its last WM and T report of Dec 2023 saw production for 23/24 as 171.4mb, consumption as 169.5mb. Both, ICO and USDA see 23/24 production higher 1mb than consumption and somehow ICO saw bigger production... :) So, the question is: if production growth was due to exceptional OFF cycle, does it mean that Brazil produced more than USDA thinks it did, or other origins somehow coordinated their cycles with Brazil ? :)
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Viriato Magalhaes
May 19, 2024 2:46PM ET
Alysson: "What draws general attention is the very bad sieve, this already shows that it will have a significant impact on the yield of the crop, it is a coffee with a smaller sieve, this is already clear in the south of Minas Gerais as a whole". Alysson attributes the lower sieve factor to the weather conditions recorded between the months of October and December. "The coffee didn't grow as much as it needed to, there was a lack of water and high temperatures, so the coffee couldn't grow normally."
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Oscar Correa
21 hours ago
Density is a substance's mass per unit of volumen. 0,7 to 0,75 grams per ml is the ideal range for density of coffee. So the weigh of a liter of coffee would be 700 to 750 grams. To fill a liter can with small beans you wold need more of them. Is It clear now or do you need more explanation?
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Bruno O Souza
20 hours ago
Oscar Correa thank you Oscar, old man typing without glasses
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Viriato Magalhaes
20 hours ago
Short Dude. Let's look at possible scenario for 25/26, Brazil, basing on current situation: 1) high temps and dry spells affected 25/26 crop as vegetative function was stressed (branches/leaves) and so, by definition :), less fruits may be (should be :)) produced; 2) higher rust rates were detected in SDM already - the rates may get higher on more weather issues, new infestation, etc; 3) 25/26 is OFF crop for A; 4) ES (R) 25/26 may get affected also as it was the case in 15/16 and after - combined effect on 25/26 crop in this case will be bigger; 5) all origins (lots!), affected in 23/24 on high temps/dry spells basis, will produce smaller crops in 25/26 as the result (science, A is 2 years crop :)) and it will fall on OFF crop in Brazil. :) :) :) :) :) P.S. Hurricanes ---> CA, higher fungus/pests in other origins, big mealybug problem in Vietnam :). All fantasy for now :) but if to consider in a very conservative way the market will get: A) roughly 5mb less on Brazil OFF cycle; B) 3mb consumption growth at 1.75%; C) 5mb all other origins combined. In total - 13mb. And 5mb for OFF cycle is really conservative, as it usually is within 10 - 20% range and ES possible drop and higher fungus/pest effect are not counted. :) So, it may be 15mb :), etc. That will make 2026 the year of Big Hope ! :) ( However, 2026 may surprise with a double La Nina (continuing) and drought in MG as couple of virtual :) studies, based on 100 years of drought history in MG, have shown possibility of a real drought in Brazil in 2026 :).).
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Viriato Magalhaes
20 hours ago
Alysson from Procafe confirmed that Arabica best temps range is still 21-23C :). He knows well which cultivars are grown in SDM so, can be trusted :).
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Rodrigo Faria
15 hours ago
Bruno, the maturation of coffees from the Cerrado is more advanced compared to the South of Minas. What can you tell us about the region’s income?
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Viriato Magalhaes
May 18, 2024 10:27AM ET
Short Dude. Sensation or not - who knows :) ? But this is NEW 2.1mb R reduction that you have to subtract now from stocks or to adjust global production for 23/24. Thus, it provides a new balance for 23/24. If, by USDA , previous balance was 169.5mb consumption vs 171.4mb production, after this new R 2.1mb revision it is 169.5mb consumption vs 169.3mb production :) (assuming this specific R revision only !). The percentage of reduction is 25% (big) and it shows that USDA is not immune of big overvaluations indeed from one side, and quite serious weather influence on the other :). If I remember correctly, last time Indonesia produced R below 7mb in 2011 or so...
By my rough calcs, after reports that have been out already, 23/24 production has to be adjusted by -3mb, assuming A+R up/down revisions made. Thus, new 23/24 COSM vs PROD would be 169.5mb vs 168.4mb.
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Viriato Magalhaes
May 18, 2024 10:27AM ET
Maja posted from Veracruz and shown some pics. No devastated farms... But not higher yield :) :) :) would be considered assuming weather issues recorded and ongoing. USDA hadn't see any problem now, while projecting 24/25, and stated just that: no higher yield. How USDA would project the loss, if it is impossible to calculate it at this stage ? 3% 5% ? 10% ? Put 10% - you'll create more panic, put 3% - means nothing for Mexico... Thus, the best approach is to declare flat and wait and see. Without irony at all, as USDA doesn't want market to blow. But USDA will not hesitate to adjust it for whatever percent on later basis as the market will adjust itself already well before that. :) But the one should not fool himself: 1) every flat projection for 24/25 is not good as it points to Brazil even more :); 2) back years revisions are taken into the account by big market players as the exports; 3) next crop is OFF crop.
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Viriato Magalhaes
May 18, 2024 10:27AM ET
Comments I've seen re MG : expectation was about 15% up, can end up down 2%, 3%,... up to 5%. MAY BE ! only, but if it would - would be fully intact with science and weather. 3% of MG would be 1mb or so... Same about ES, besides there was a historical precedent for ES, well documented. All may not happen at all. But if it will, 5% for ES and 3% for MG will make roughly another 2mb.
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MGom
May 18, 2024 10:27AM ET
Viriato Magalhaes With the volume exported by Brazil 23/24, I imagine that we will have a major review for Brazil 23/24 production.
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MGom
May 17, 2024 8:32PM ET
Tks Viriato ... The USDA reports have landed in my Spam folder, I can now read them again.
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Viriato Magalhaes
May 17, 2024 8:32PM ET
:) :) :) I was way too much - I know :) ! I'll stop spamming on this :). No agitation or prophecy - just wanted to get some feedback from the ground, etc. The rest of the month is full of reports - we'll see it all, including ECF stocks.
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MGom
May 17, 2024 8:32PM ET
CONAB in the next few days
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