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ICE US Coffee C Futures - Sep 25 (KCc7)

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212.05 +9.20    +4.54%
13:29:00 - Delayed Data. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type:  Commodity
Group:  Agriculture
  • Prev. Close: 212.05
  • Open: 202.70
  • Day's Range: 202.70 - 212.25
US Coffee C 212.05 +9.20 +4.54%

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Mercury KG
Mercury KG 2 hours ago
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Last year, I mentioned that potentially after the extreme temperature swings we saw during 2023, 2024, might bring more of the same. Never mind my silly speculation... I regret my fellow growers are having a difficult time.
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 2 hours ago
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Check out the post on X from Marcelo Teixera. Soil moisture in the South Minas Gerais is the lowest in 7 years. It has been this way since the beginning of the year and continues.
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 8 hours ago
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Viriato, it looks like the market agrees with your calculations :)
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 6 hours ago
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Rodrigo mentioned hail among the affecting factors. There are already precedents in some countries of quite bigger and more intensive hail storms, there are pics/videos, etc - not related to coffee growing (!). As the cooling should be next stage :), who knows how it may affect the hail ? And if the patterns will get out of their ranges a bit, who knows what areas (vs areas under normal patterns) may get affected ? Those are all IFs :) :) :) but nobody was expecting those temps/heat waves a year ago... The guy that posted temp 39.4C in Sombrerete (Mexico), commented that it is one of the highest numbers ever recorded at that altitude 2354m asl. No coffee there :), but it gives a view, that some other, not that covered by media high areas, could be affected too, and some of them could have coffee trees (1000m - 2000m etc). Just to underline that it is not business as usual in 23/24 and 24/25 may stay the same course... :)
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 6 hours ago
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Coffee Arabica. Big players don't give a half a bean :) about what we talk here :), but internet and social media ruined their exclusivity in terms of some critical information. This is certain. :) What Rodrigo, Bruno, Oscar have been saying here is confirmed by local media in Colombia and Brazil (and USDA for Colombia :)).
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 5 hours ago
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Extreme hail fell a few days ago in one of the cities in my country. We do not grow coffee, but the phenomenon is indeed exceptional. There are pictures of people walking up to their knees in the ice. The cleanup continues to this day, the damage is severe, not only plants but also buildings were affected.
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Coffee Arabica
Coffee Arabica 4 hours ago
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ShortDude ShortDude Where is your country?
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MGom MGom
MGom 3 hours ago
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Viriato, but Colombia has growing production in 2023 and a higher forecast in 2024, what would be the problem they are facing ?
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Nikolay Borisov
Nikolay Borisov 12 hours ago
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testing area 212-214 /on 4h
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 20, 2024 4:09PM ET
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Colombia was expected, figure was not clear but it was expected since Dec 2023 WM and T report. It has to be assumed that when previous USDA projection for 23/24 production was made, it was made on the production numbers, projected in 2023 reports and then some adjustments (if any) in World Markets and Trade report of Dec 2023. Thus, while projections for 24/25 are still projections only, reduction on previous 23/24 (22/23) numbers, in fact, form almost final :) view at 23/24. So far projections 24/25 are flat on gross reduction on 23/24.
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Kenan Hajdari
Kenan Hajdari 10 hours ago
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She along with some keyboard bull warriors are champions
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 10 hours ago
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Short Dude. Consider, the one has 50ha farm, trees of different age, possibly different clones, different exposure, high density, different stage of ripening, size, weight, etc ... How he will calculate ? Experience/Intuition based only, unless you want you evaluation to be +/- 25% :). You need some certain percentage to be collected to be able to give a reasonable numbers...
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 9 hours ago
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Conab is out Thursday :).
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 8 hours ago
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Apples. It's a lot easier with apples. You see them on the trees or not. They are nice and big, colorful or not. You don't have to wait for the harvest to know what the crop will be. ;)
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Rodrigo Faria
Rodrigo Faria 8 hours ago
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Not even apples, unfortunately we are out in the open and anything can happen: hail, heat, windstorms, drought, pests. Of course, with apples the period is shorter, unlike coffee where we practically have a harvest every 2 years (in harvest 0 pruning).
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 20, 2024 3:45PM ET
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Honduras: 22/23 - reduction of 300kb; 23/24 : USDA - 6.5mb, POST - 5.5mb !!! (POST projection in 2023 for 23/24 was 7.92mb, now it is 5.5mb ... 2.42mb lower !!! ); projection 24/25 - 5.5mb.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 20, 2024 3:45PM ET
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Honduras report is very confusing as it reflects POST's high level of uncertainty: 7.92mb vs 5.5mb for 23/24 = 2.42mb or 31% for a small production... As it is POST who is on the ground, the probability is high, that 5.5mb figure for 23/24 will be assumed in 2025 report. If this will be the case, total reduction vs previous projection for 23/24 will be 2.42mb ! Otherwise, it is 6.5mb vs previously projected 7.92mb = - 1.42mb. Assuming both reductions, 22/23 and 23/24 --1.72mb. And 24/25 projection of 5.5mb vs current 23/24 of 6.5mb is a projection of 1mb ... lower.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 20, 2024 3:45PM ET
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Honduras is a good example. For the diff between 7.92mb and 5.5mb serious concerns have to be in play or, on the other hand, impossibility to come with more or less reasonable algorithm. Confusion in other words...
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 20, 2024 3:32PM ET
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Peru: 22/23 revised from 4.2mb to 3.4mb, 23/24 - 4.2mb, 24/25 projected - 4.22mb, 22/23 reduction 800kb, 24/25 vs 23/24 - flat.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 20, 2024 3:32PM ET
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Consumption growth - about 4%.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 20, 2024 3:20PM ET
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Nicaragua: FAS/Managua anticipates coffee production in marketing year 2024/25 to rebound to 2.6 million 60- kilogram bags, as a return to average precipitation levels should support historical average yields. However, Nicaraguan coffee growers face global structural headwinds in marketing year 2024/25 on top of tight labor supplies needed to bring in the hand-picked coffee harvest. Dry conditions, reduced production, and delayed harvesting – all associated with the 2023 El Niño weather system – reduced overall coffee production in marketing year 2023/24 by ten percent.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 20, 2024 3:20PM ET
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R is flat last 3 MY. A, assuming reduction 10% reduction for 23/24. looks like: 22/23 - 2.5mb, 23/24 USDA - 2.5mb, POST - 2.25mb, 24/25 projection - 2.45mb. Thus, if to consider POST for 23/24 to become final number (usually is), -250kb. Or flat as it would be enough also :)...
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 20, 2024 3:19PM ET
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Colombia: production for 23/24 was revised up to 12.2mb from 11.5mb (WM and T, dec 2023) previously projected, 24/25 is projected to reach 12.4mb, 200kb more vs 23/24. Increased rates of borer infestation admitted as Oscar was saying for months... Thus, 700kb should added to global balance :) 23/24 and roughly, 24/25 vs 23/24 production is seen ... flat.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 20, 2024 2:45PM ET
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From Barchart news (just part of news): In a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) projected on May 3 that 2023/24 global coffee production would climb +5.8% y/y to 178 million bags due to an exceptional off-biennial crop year. ICO also projects global 2023/24 coffee consumption will rise +2.2% y/y to 177 million bags, resulting in a 1 million bag coffee surplus.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 20, 2024 2:45PM ET
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USDA in its last WM and T report of Dec 2023 saw production for 23/24 as 171.4mb, consumption as 169.5mb. Both, ICO and USDA see 23/24 production higher 1mb than consumption and somehow ICO saw bigger production... :) So, the question is: if production growth was due to exceptional OFF cycle, does it mean that Brazil produced more than USDA thinks it did, or other origins somehow coordinated their cycles with Brazil ? :)
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