Extra Space Storage Inc. (NYSE:EXR) reported a solid start to 2024 in its first quarter earnings call, with both occupancy and rates showing sequential improvement from the previous quarter. The company's same-store pool occupancy reached 93.2%, marking a 50 basis point increase year-over-year. Revenue strategy adjustments have led to a 1% lift in same-store revenue performance, while the expense growth saw a 5.5% increase compared to the previous year.
The Legacy Life Storage (NYSE:LSI) same-store pool also demonstrated growth, with a 1.7% revenue increase and occupancy rising to 92%. Extra Space Storage remains optimistic about its ability to optimize performance in the upcoming leasing season, backed by its strong teams and infrastructure.
Key Takeaways
- Same-store pool occupancy up to 93.2%, a year-over-year increase of 50 basis points.
- Same-store revenue performance improved by 1%, driven by the company's refined revenue strategy.
- Expense growth rose by 5.5% year-over-year.
- Legacy Life Storage same-store pool revenue increased by 1.7%, with occupancy improving to 92%.
- $164 million in new bridge loans added, along with 97 third-party managed stores gross and 72 stores net.
- Company expects growth in the latter half of the year, projecting occupancy to reach parity with Extra Space stores.
Company Outlook
- No significant changes in the company's guidance for the year.
- Expectation to close occupancy and rate gaps with Extra Space stores by the end of the year.
- Optimism about adapting to external factors and maintaining performance.
Bearish Highlights
- Deceleration in same-store revenue guidance not driven by the 165 new stores but linked to the housing market's performance.
- The transaction market is quiet with a significant bid-ask spread, and few high-quality deals available.
Bullish Highlights
- Occupancy rates expected to grow in the back half of the year.
- Florida market seen as a strong long-term investment despite current weakness.
- Structured finance book remains competitive with no current impact on business.
Misses
- Existing tenants show strength and low price sensitivity, but new customers are more price-sensitive.
- Consumer behavior indicates weaker spending and price sensitivity for new tenants.
Q&A Highlights
- The company receives daily data and will provide more insights in upcoming conferences.
- About half of the customers are moving due to home purchases, though this number has decreased since Q3 2021.
- Bridge loan demand driven by customers looking to cash out expensive equity partners or those hesitant about the current sales market.
Extra Space Storage's CEO, Joe Margolis, highlighted the resilience of existing tenants, who exhibit strong loyalty and are less sensitive to price changes. Despite inflation and a dip in savings rates, the company has not observed a significant impact on their structured finance book and is prepared to manage their balance sheet effectively. Marketing investments continue to yield high returns, and the company is making strides in customer acquisition metrics for the LSI portfolio.
The company's bridge loan program is experiencing increased demand, particularly from customers seeking to exit costly equity partnerships. These loans are accompanied by management contracts, which are expected to persist post-repayment. Maintenance capital expenditures are forecasted to remain steady at approximately $0.65 per square foot in 2024.
In summary, Extra Space Storage's first quarter of 2024 has set a positive tone for the year, with strategic revenue management and a confident outlook on occupancy and rate improvements. Despite some market challenges, the company is poised to navigate the leasing season with robust infrastructure and a clear focus on long-term growth.
InvestingPro Insights
Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR) has demonstrated resilience in its first quarter of 2024, and the InvestingPro data further enriches the understanding of the company's financial health and market position. According to InvestingPro, EXR has a market capitalization of $30.56 billion, solidifying its significant presence in the Specialized REITs industry. The company's P/E ratio stands at 32.48, reflecting a premium valuation compared to some of its peers, which could be attributed to its robust revenue growth of 33.04% over the last twelve months as of Q4 2023.
InvestingPro Tips indicate that EXR has a notable track record of raising its dividend for 14 consecutive years, which is a testament to its commitment to shareholder returns. This streak aligns with the company's reported optimism and strategic revenue management mentioned in the article. Furthermore, the company has maintained dividend payments for 21 consecutive years, indicating a strong and stable financial position that could reassure investors looking for consistent income.
For readers interested in a deeper analysis, InvestingPro offers additional insights, including the fact that EXR is trading at a high earnings multiple, which may be a point of consideration for value-focused investors. Moreover, two analysts have revised their earnings downwards for the upcoming period, which may warrant attention when assessing future performance. It's also worth noting that the company has been profitable over the last twelve months and analysts predict profitability will continue this year.
For those looking to explore these metrics and tips further, InvestingPro provides a comprehensive suite of tools and additional tips. There are currently 9 additional InvestingPro Tips available for Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR), which can be accessed at: https://www.investing.com/pro/EXR. Readers can use the coupon code PRONEWS24 to receive an additional 10% off a yearly or biyearly Pro and Pro+ subscription, offering an even greater value for those seeking to make informed investment decisions.
Full transcript - Extra Space Storage (EXR) Q1 2024:
Operator: Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the First Quarter 2024 Extra Space Storage Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Jared Conley, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Jared Conley: Thank you, Michelle. Welcome to Extra Space Storage's first quarter 2024 earnings call. In addition to our press release, we have furnished unaudited supplemental financial information on our website. Please remember that management's prepared remarks and answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Actual results could differ materially from those stated or implied by our forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with the company's business. These forward-looking statements are qualified by the cautionary statements contained in the company's latest filings with the SEC, which we encourage our listeners to review. Forward-looking statements represent management's estimates as of today May 1, 2024. The company assumes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements because of changing market conditions or other circumstances after the date of this conference call. I would now like to turn the call over to Joe Margolis, Chief Executive Officer.
Joe Margolis: Thanks, Jared, and thank you everyone for joining today's call. As many of you know, Jeff Norman has transitioned into another role within the organization as the Head of Treasury and Capital Markets. Many of you on this call have worked with Jeff and experienced his professionalism, responsiveness, fast knowledge and good nature. I recognize and appreciate his efforts to make Extra Space, a leader in the industry and look forward to his continued contribution to the company. I would also like to introduce Jared Conley, our new Vice President of Investor Relations. Jared has been with Extra Space since 2002, and has worked in various roles most recently as our Head of Financial Planning and Analysis. We look forward to introducing him in person next month at NAREIT. Turning to this quarter's performance. We have seen sequential improvement in occupancy and rate since our fourth quarter earnings call in late February. Operationally, occupancy at the Extra Space same-store pool grew every month during a period normally recognized for seasonal declines ending the quarter at 93.2%, a 50 basis point increase year-over-year. Our revenue strategy has allowed us to both improve occupancy and average move-in rate in the quarter with the latter growing sequentially by approximately 8% from a seasonal low in January. The combination of improving move-in rate, higher occupancy and steady existing customer rate increases have provided a 1% lift in Extra Space same-store revenue performance, which is in line with our internal projections. Also as expected, Extra Space same-store expense growth increased by 5.5% year-over-year. The legacy Life Storage same-store pool performance continues to improve outpacing the Extra Space same-store properties. Revenue gained 1.7% year-over-year, which was in line with internal projections and against the backdrop of a difficult comp, where prior management pushed hard on rates in 2023 at the expense of occupancy. Occupancy at our Life stores improved to 92%, a 220 basis point improvement over last year, narrowing the gap between pools to 120 basis points at quarter end. At the end of April, this gap which was over 400 basis points in closing, has further narrowed to 90 basis points on our platform. To do so, we have maintained lower rates through the quarter with the strategy of higher occupancy leading to stronger new and existing customer rates through the remainder of the year. We believe improved rate performance will continue to lift these properties and ultimately bring them to parity with legacy Extra Space store, rate, and occupancy levels. Life Storage same-store expenses increased 6.7% year-over-year also due to an exceptionally hard 2023 comparable, but below internal projections. Expenses increased particularly in the areas of payroll and repairs and maintenance as we address areas that were underinvested at this time last year. On the external growth front the transaction market continues to be muted. However, we expanded our capital-light external growth activities adding $164 million in new bridge loans meaningfully ahead of our projections. In addition we added 97 third-party managed stores gross and 72 stores net. We continue to have the fastest-growing third-party management platform in the industry. Overall, the year is unfolding as expected with wins in capital-light growth and G&A and expense savings. We are working hard and I am confident of our teams and infrastructure are well prepared to optimize performance during the important upcoming leasing season. I will now turn the time over to Scott.
Scott Stubbs: Thanks Joe and hello everyone. As Joe mentioned, we had another good quarter driven by steady revenue, G&A savings, and better-than-expected property operating expenses, specifically property taxes. The G&A savings have been from a broad range of categories as we continue to seek efficiencies and capitalize on our greater scale. As mentioned in our prior call, we closed a $600 million bond offering in the quarter at a time when interest rates were more favorable than the current environment. Proceeds were used to repay the bridge loan that we used to acquire Life Storage and the offering helps reduce our exposure to variable interest rate debt. Our balance sheet is in great shape and we have plenty of dry powder to capitalize on an improving transactions market. Due to the in-line nature of same-store performance, we are not making any revisions related to property operations. We will update our property guidance after the second quarter once we see how the leasing season progresses and how much pricing power we gain. We do expect to see continued savings in G&A and have adjusted our annual assumptions accordingly. We have also adjusted our annual average SOFR assumption, increasing interest expense, which is partially offset by increases in interest income from our bridge loan program. We are encouraged by the outsized rental volume year-to-date and the high occupancy at our stores and we should be in a great position to maximize the performance at our properties as we move into the rental season. With that, Michelle, let's open it up for questions.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Your line is open.
Michael Goldsmith: Good morning. Thanks all for taking my question. Can you talk a little bit about what the trend was in April and how that kind of compares from the last couple of months of the end of the first quarter?
Scott Stubbs: Yes Michael. So we ended the month of April at 93.7% occupied, which is still a 50 basis point delta over last year and our rates improved sequentially month-over-month from the month of January. So what's happened in the quarter is we averaged about 14% negative achieved rates in the quarter. And in the month of April that has moved to about negative 9% year-over-year.
Joe Margolis: So that 92.7% is the Extra Space same-store pool we're at 92.8% for the Life Storage same-store pool.
Michael Goldsmith: Got it. And then my – thanks for that guys. And my follow-up question is to reach the midpoint of the guidance, it seems like you started to – you kind of hit your occupancy or have started to make some momentum there. I suspect that's going to translate to starting to push street rates like Joe, to meet the midpoint of your guidance. How much the street rates need to increase from here in order to achieve that midpoint level? Thanks.
Joe Margolis: So street rates is only one component, right? And we don't – we're kind of agnostic as to whether we can maximize our revenue through street rates, through occupancy, through discounts, through marketing spend, through ECRI. So there's no one number we're targeting for any one of those metrics where trying to mix and match them to maximize revenue.
Michael Goldsmith: So maybe if I ask that slightly different way. If ECRIs kind of remain steady and you get kind of the normal seasonality within occupancy then how much street rate gains do you need in order to kind of meet your kind of internal expectations?
Scott Stubbs: Michael, we actually have not broken out street rates. If you remember on the last call we actually didn't break them out. We said when we did our budgets, when we did our estimates and forecast, we did it based on revenue growth. And so street rate is a component of that as is occupancy. And obviously the better the street rates are the better the occupancy the higher we are going to be in that range.
Michael Goldsmith: Got it. Thank you very much. Good luck for the second quarter.
Scott Stubbs: Thanks, Mike.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeff Spector with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Jeff Spector: Good morning. Thank you. I just want to confirm thinking about your comments and where we stand here May 1 versus let's say, the last couple of years where there was a bit less visibility and seasonality was a bit distorted or I guess can you just put the context of how you feel today versus the prior two years? Because it sounds like you're more comfortable confident maybe with that seasonality – normal seasonality trends are kicking in and we should expect that to continue for the remainder of the year.
Joe Margolis: So I think comfort is always greater as you get into and have some feeling as to how the leasing season is going to go. So at this time of year before we're into the leasing season in a period where we have reduced housing activity, where we have signs of consumer weakness we have not -- I'll say this. we have not enough comfort that we're going to change our guidance.
Jeff Spector: I understand that Joe. I guess, I'm just asking though again part of the issue in the last couple of years was pinning down seasonality trends right? And so you -- and I feel like it's important to have a grasp on that seasonality trends are back normal so your operations and systems are running smoothly and you're confident in those systems. Is that not a fair way to think about it?
Joe Margolis: Yes. So I think if you look at say occupancy seasonality. And you look at the annual occupancy curve pre-COVID to what we've experienced last year and what we expect to experience this year. Our system has taken a great deal of the seasonality in occupancy out of our performance. We will keep our stores at higher occupancy levels at all times of the year. And I think you see that in the first quarter this year, right? The bigger question is how much rate power do we have and can we push rates at those occupancy levels?
Jeff Spector: And do you think we'll have a better feel when we see you at NAREIT, or again could it be later in the summer like last year?
Joe Margolis: I think we get data every day, and we'll have more data and a better feel at NAREIT, and we'll have even more in a better field in our next conference call, and we'll certainly keep all of our shareholders and interested parties up to-date with what we know.
Jeff Spector: Thank you.
Joe Margolis: Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Eric Wolfe with Citi. Your line is open.
Eric Wolfe: Hey, thanks for taking the questions. If I look at the 165 stores added to the same-store pool this year, it looks like they're growing around 7% and if you include the 2023 same-store pool looks like the 216 stores combined are going around 5%. So I was just wondering if the deceleration that you're predicting in your same-store revenue guidance is coming mainly from those stores, just as occupancy comps get tougher through the year? Or is there something else that would be driving the deceleration? Or maybe you're just being conservative because it's early? But just trying to understand what's -- what would drive the deceleration so call it 1% same-store revenue to get you down to your midpoint?
Scott Stubbs: Hi, Eric. So the main driver of that is not the 165 stores. I mean, the -- those stores actually increased our performance in the quarter. I think they added about 40 bps to our revenue growth in the quarter. Our revenue growth throughout the summer is impacted somewhat by our performance last year, obviously, where you're coming off higher numbers. Comps do get easier as you move throughout the year. But we are not seeing -- our current expectation similar to what we said at the -- when we gave our annual guidance is we're not expecting a major recovery from the housing market today. We're expecting things to kind of perform as they are today and not seeing a major rebound. And I think that may be one difference from what some other people have projected or thought.
Eric Wolfe: That's helpful. And then I guess conversely on your LSI guidance, you're expecting looks like around 3.25% same-store revenue growth for the rest of the year. Can you just talk about the timing of that acceleration from your 1Q numbers? Obviously your occupancy did increase I think 200 bps at quarter end so that should drive over 200 bps same-store revenue growth but just curious what gets you the rest of the way there to that 3.25%? I mean, when would you expect to see that?
Scott Stubbs: Yeah. So obviously it's a range that we provided. So it'll depend a little bit on where you are in that range. But the way we're viewing this is as occupancy moves up to parity with the Extra Space stores, those rates will move up. So today, our live storage stores have rates that are 5% to 10% below our Extra Space stores as they are growing faster. We saw very good rentals in the first quarter. We've continued to close that occupancy gap. We would expect that occupancy gap to be closed at some point during this rental season and then see the growth in the back half of the year.
Eric Wolfe: All right. Thank you. Thanks for the detail.
Scott Stubbs: Thanks, Eric.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Nick Yulico with Scotiabank. Your line is open.
Nick Yulico: Thanks. Hi. First question is just, can you give us a feel for how, you know, ECRI is trending, year-to-date versus, let's say, the back half of last year on percentage basis?
Joe Margolis: So, I would say very similarly. I mean, we're constantly testing and trying new things but overall the program is very similar to the back half of the last year customers are accepting ECRI at the same rates and it's a effective tool for us to maximize revenue.
Nick Yulico: Okay. And then in terms of -- maybe could you just elaborate a little bit further on -- on that pricing strategy right now where it feels like it's been, a discounted, heavily discounted, promotional move in web rate in some cases. And then you're trying to get that customer back up to a more normalized rate in a pretty quick timeframe. What, are you getting pushback from, customers? I mean, what's sort of the feeling for that? And I guess I'm wondering, at some point, do you -- do you need to -- do you move away from that strategy as you get more comfortable with occupancy? And then that'll help show improvement in moving rates. How should we think about that?
Joe Margolis: So, I mean, the strategy, you described it pretty well, right? On the web, for the web customer, they get a discounted rate but no promotion, right, which is different than our peers who offer many times promotions on the web. So a discounted rate, we do that because the data tells us these are the longer-term and better customers, and that is the pricing package they react best to. We use ECRI to get them to street rate within a reasonable period of time. We have a different structure for the customer who walks in the store and our data tells us and our testing tells us this is a very effective strategy and when the data tells us and the testing tells us we should evolve it to something else, then we will. It's not in place for a fixed period of time or until we see something. We're constantly -- one of the advantages of our scale is we can constantly have a few hundred stores here and there or running different tests. And when we see something that tells us we need to evolve our strategy, we will.
Nick Yulico: Okay. Thanks, Joe.
Joe Margolis: Sure.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Juan Sanabria: Good morning. Just hoping you could talk a little bit about the transaction market. You guys have done some deals in the first quarter and then expected to close over the balance of the year. So maybe you could give us a little flavor for what’s going in and stabilized yields that you're underwriting to?
Joseph Margolis: Sure. So the transaction market is pretty muted. There's still a significant bid-ask spread. There's not a lot of distress in storage, so sellers don't need to sell in general. We see a lot of transactions get put on the market and get pulled particularly larger transactions. It seems there's less capital for big portfolios than there are for one-offs. So the transaction market is pretty quiet. We did close seven deals in the first quarter, but one of those was a joint venture development and one was a CO deal. So those were agreed to some time ago. We only approved, I think the better sense of the market is what's approved in a quarter because the ones that closed might have been baked many, many, many months before. And we only approved three transactions in the first quarter. One was a remotely managed store and the cap rate was in -- initial cap was in the mid-6s. And then two developments where the development yield at a property level was in the high 8s and about 100 basis points higher to us, because of the joint venture structure. So mean good deals will do good deals like that when we see them but there's not a lot of them in the market right now.
Juan Sanabria: Great. And then just a bigger picture question. Maybe a little bit to Jeff's question earlier that you guys sound pearly optimistic but the guidance doesn't necessarily call for any necessary reacceleration in the second half. But I guess, are you seeing signs at the different markets that individual markets are starting to reaccelerate at all?
Joseph Margolis: So an advantage of our scale is how diversified we are and the exposure we have to many, many, many markets. And that's a purposeful portfolio of construction because all of our data tells us that markets act differently. Not all markets move in the same direction, even if you start to categorize markets by primary, secondary, tertiary, coastal or whatever, they don't act with any correlation. And the reasons market act differently is because of new supply situations because of job growth and population and because sometimes if the market does really well for a couple of years as revenue growth over 20% like we experienced in Atlanta then the next year it's not going to be so good. So because we have this wide exposure, we absolutely have markets that are reaccelerating and we have markets that are flat and we have markets that are not doing as well. And I think we'll always be in that position. But this broad diversification provides smooth our volatility if you will. And we are big believers in having exposure to as many good growth markets as we possibly can.
Juan Sanabria: Thanks Joe.
Joe Margolis: Sure.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Samir Khanal with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
Samir Khanal: Thanks gentlemen. Maybe sticking to the last question here on markets. One market that sort of is lagging here is Florida, look at Tampa, you look at Orlando and I know that looking at the integration of LSI, LSI had a big exposure to Florida. So, I mean that occupancy gap is still about I think 180 to 200 basis points. How do you think about your ability to sort of close that gap given some of the dynamics in sort of Florida?
Joe Margolis: Yes. So, great question. So, yes, Florida -- some of the markets in Florida are some of our weaker markets today, that's a good observation. That's partially because they did so well during COVID and that's partially because of supply issues in some of those markets. But we're in this and we did this merger for the long term. And over the long term the Sunbelt markets the Florida markets and the population growth and the businesses that are moving there we believe those are really good long-term markets. So, yes, this quarter some of those markets and maybe this year some of those markets might be on the weaker side. But long-term we're really happy to have exposure down there. A market like Houston and Chicago which we also increased our exposure to the Life transaction those markets are doing really well. They're kind of on the top of the heat now. So, again, it's great to have exposure to lots of different markets because they'll always be moving in different directions.
Samir Khanal: I guess my second question is around ECRIs. That's still holding up clearly. I guess what does it take for the consumer behavior to sort of shift? Is it -- is it job growth at this point? I mean job growth with non-comp [ph] payroll is still pretty strong month-to-month. I mean is that is it really job growth that will sort of crack that? I mean just kind of what your thoughts are?
Joe Margolis: So, when we talk about the ,consumer I think we have to separate the existing tenant consumer and the new tenant consumer. The existing tenant consumer is really strong and really price insensitive. We're not moving out in the face of ECRI Bad debt is very low lengths of stay are incrementally improving. The storage customer once they become a storage customer is really a strong sticky customer. We see more weakness in the new customer, the customer looking for storage. And that's where we see more price sensitivity. There's enough demand out there for us to capture more than our share and keep our stores at optimal occupancy but it's the pricing strength that is an issue now. And I think we're at a period of time where we've had several quarters where inflation outpaced wage growth and the extra money that was pumped into the economy isn't there anymore. Savings rates are down you have some weakness in the consumer and that's what we're experiencing.
Samir Khanal: Okay. Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Todd Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Unidentified Analyst: Hi, this is A.J. on for Todd. I appreciate you guys taking the question. But first just to piggyback off that last question. So vacates were down. And – but one of your peers noted that they saw a slight uptick in vacate activity and noted that there might be a normalization in the length of stay. You just noted that length of stay is incrementally improving. I'm curious though if you expect that to continue? Or do you see potential for vacate activity and the length of stay trends to normalize a bit moving forward?
Joe Margolis: Yes. So I'd probably explain that incorrectly. Length of stay is incrementally better than pre-COVID. It's worse during COVID. We had that period where people just weren't leaving the stores. So overall, I'm looking at a longer period of time we're saying length of stay is incrementally improving. But it is clearly normalizing from COVID levels. Sorry, if I wasn't clear enough on that.
Unidentified Analyst: Yes that clarification is helpful. And then just transitioning just over to the structured finance book as that kind of continues to grow. So it seems like the demand for that product definitely seems strong today. How big are you comfortable with growing that too? And are you starting to see competition from others creating a more competitive environment for the bridge loan and mezz financing?
Joe Margolis: So we do see other people getting into the business. Some of our public peers have announced they want to get into this business. On the ground we don't see competition yet. We're not losing loans. We're not – we don't hear people saying they're taking this to someone else to bid. But there's other lenders. There's competition for this business just like there's competition for the management business or any other business we're in. And our job is to compete well and that's what we're trying to do. How big this can get? We have the ability to sell off the A notes in this structure. And that's a really good tool for us to be able to control how much of the balance sheet, how many of these loans we keep on the balance sheet. So we've picked up our guidance a little bit through this year as to what we expect to keep on the balance sheet but we certainly have flexibility to move that number one way or another.
Unidentified Analyst: Perfect. I appreciate the time. Thanks.
Joe Margolis: Sure. Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Keegan Carl with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Keegan Carl: Yes. Thanks for the time guys. Maybe first just on LSI. I'd love to hear how the performance of the portfolio is trending relative to your expectations at the start of the year? And do you think you fully realize revenue synergies in this yet?
Joe Margolis: So I think LSI performance in the first quarter was as expected on target so we're happy with that. And we still have as of today a 90 basis point occupancy gap. And depending on what metric you look at, what pool of stores you look at anywhere from 8% to 12% rate gap. So we still have wood to chop. I think the good news is the tools we need, the infrastructure we need in place to close those gaps is largely there, right? So the LSI store manager is now performing close to or at the level of an extra space store manager in terms of conversion rates and all the metrics we use, right? And that took some time to get there. We've largely caught up on R&M and capital and the stores look like an Extra Space store now in terms of cleanliness and repair, things like that. The LSI website is actually now faster than the Extra Space website. It was much slower when we bought it. So a lot of the customer acquisition metrics are improving. I'd say, they're not all the way there yet for LSI, but improving. So we've made a lot of progress. We still have some wood to chop, and we still have some opportunity to capture.
Keegan Carl: Got it. That's really helpful. Thanks for the color Joe. And then I guess just shifting gears here a little bit. I know you guys don't necessarily break it out, but it would be helpful to maybe just understand how you expect your year-over-year occupancy delta to trend throughout the rest of this year if anything might have changed from a few months ago?
Scott Stubbs: Yes. So we don't expect a significant occupancy delta for the entire year. We obviously, it's a component of your revenue, but we would expect it to be flat for most of the year, although we have been ahead some in the first quarter.
Keegan Carl: Great. Thanks guys. Really appreciate it.
Scott Stubbs: Sure. Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Spenser Allaway with Green Street. Your line is open.
Spenser Allaway: Thank you. You guys have been successful with your revenue management strategy. But just thinking about how you had to cut moving rents fairly aggressively like peers. I'm just curious if you have a sense of how long on average based on the current cadence and magnitude of ECRIs it would take you to get your new customer rent up to market level rents?
Joe Margolis: Yes. So I think there's a little bit of a misunderstanding baked into that question that we've cut more aggressively than our peers. And I think that comes from the web scraping data that is published and people see. When you look at that data, that's not adjusted for promotions. And our -- we offer promotions, it's under 10% of our web customers get a first month free or a promotion like that, where at our peers, it's the vast majority of their customers. So to compare our web rates to our peers' web rates, you have to adjust for promotions. And I think once you do that, you'll see we have not cut rates significantly more than our competitors. It's just not -- it's just not true. And our goal is, once someone comes in at a discounted rate to get them to street rate within a reasonable period of time. And that may vary based on different factors, but within a reasonable period of time, they need to get the street rate.
Spenser Allaway: Perfect. And then you spoke about the progress you've made in closing the occupancy gap on the legacy LSI assets, but based on your growing knowledge of the LSI market. I'm just curious what you think is a sustainable long-term occupancy level for that portion of the portfolio?
Joe Margolis: Yes. So we had an 80% market overlap with LSI and Extra Space stores. So for 80% of the portfolio, it's the same. And we don't really target an occupancy level. Again, as we said earlier, it's is just one factor that goes into the algorithm that is trying to maximize revenue. And it may be different in different types of markets based on customer behavior.
Spenser Allaway: Okay. Thank you.
Joe Margolis: Thank you, Spenser.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs.
Caitlin Burrows: Hi, everyone. I don't think this has been talked about yet. I just wanted to touch on the marketing spend. So can you talk about how you measure maybe the return on marketing spend and how long you expect this kind of level to sustain for?
Scott Stubbs: Yeah. Yeah, the first thing to look at here is really a marketing spend as a percentage of your revenues. If you look at our marketing spend as a percentage of revenues, we're still about 2%, which is still a very small component. On a year-over-year perspective, we get at the 23% looks like a big number. But there's still a very positive yield. We look at the return on that spend in several different ways. It depends on where you're spending money, whether it's pay-per-click, whether it's search engine optimization or other areas. But we continue to have a very high return on that marketing spend, and it's a very small component of our expenses.
Caitlin Burrows: Okay. And then maybe just thinking, I know you guys maximize revenue through both rate and occupancy. But as you think about maybe absolute rental rates, how much they've grown over the past few years? I guess, what kind of gives you confidence that there does continue to be upside to that rent per square foot number?
Scott Stubbs: So, I think that what gives you confidence? I think the question was asked earlier, your guide versus your tone and where you are. I think we've seen positive things early in this year in terms of month-over-month rate increases. Now, that's a positive. The negative is we're still negative to last year. So, we are moving in the right direction. I think the leasing season will kind of be the real catalyst to say it was a great year or a good year or, hey, maybe it's still a little bit slow. So I think that it's really that June, July time frame when we're going to get a feel for that. But so far, occupancies held up sequentially, rate has improved, but it's still probably too early to really say, yes, it's been a good year so far.
Caitlin Burrows: Got it. Okay. Thanks.
Scott Stubbs: Thanks, Caitlin.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Ronald Kamdem with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Ronald Kamdem: Hey. Just the first one is just on housing. Can you sort of remind us what percent of your customers are coming in because of sort of home sales of the home activity and how you're thinking of demand is changing as rates have moved up?
Joe Margolis: Sure. So right now, about half of our customers, a little more, 51% of our customers tell us that they're moving. I mean they're buying a home, right, 45% of those 51% are moving from apartment to apartment. That was -- the peak of that was 61% in the third quarter of 2021. So my -- we don't have enough data, right? We can only ask so many questions and have the tenant answer the surveys. My gut tells me fewer people are moving because they're buying a house, but more people are moving because they're renting house or because they're moving apartment to apartment or for other home transition reasons. So down somewhat from the peak, but still a meaningful portion of our customers.
Ronald Kamdem: Great. And then my second question was just on the guidance. There was a lot of moving pieces from sort of the first quarter, the initial guidance and the guidance that you gave today. I know you reiterated, but interest costs are higher interest income is also higher and so forth. And then if I think about where you are in 1Q on the same-store NOI, whether it's a legacy EXR or LSI, it seems like the EXR portfolio needs to decelerate to get to the middle of the NOI guidance, while the LSI will accelerate. It just -- I guess when you -- the question is really was the lack of the raise, yeah, there's a peak leasing season aspect of it too, but is it just there's so many pieces that are changing right now that it's hard to like the range of outcome is still so wide that it's hard to have conviction in raising? Thanks.
Scott Stubbs: So we have not seen anything that is significantly different than what we saw 60 days ago. So that's really the catalyst for us, not changing again. In terms of the items that we did change, they were interest rate based, which we changed our SOFR assumption from 4.75% to 5.2%. That's based on the forward curve. And when you obviously lock into that or update your guidance. And then we updated it for volume of bridge loans and a small change in our management fees. All of those netted to a very small delta, which caused your FFO to stay the same. But we really don't have the information yet to be able to give strong conviction that things are better or worse than what we originally estimated for our properties.
Ronald Camden: Thanks so much.
Joe Margolis: Thanks Ron.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Eric Luebchow with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Eric Luebchow: Great. Thanks for the question. I know you talked about the current gap between LSI and EXR for new customers, but any color you could provide on the gap between the in-place customer at those two? How far apart they are? And how long you think it will take to get to the target to hit your revenue synergies?
Scott Stubbs: You're talking the gap on the specifically the Life Storage tenants. The negative roll down or which gap you were talking about?
Eric Luebchow: I was talking about like the in-place rental rate per square foot gap.
Joe Margolis: So when we underwrote this deal we looked at this in a number of different ways. And I think the most meaningful way is we found 109 Life Storage stores that had an extra space competitor of like type, right, multistory climate control or whatever it was similar type within the trade area, and we compared rates of those stores. And right now that gap is about 8% between those stores. We also looked at it at a portfolio level and at a market level and different. But I think that kind of like-for-like store is the best comparison.
Eric Luebchow: Okay, great. That's helpful. I know we touched on this in a few different questions. But as you look generally at the supply picture across many of your markets, do you think based on construction starts things will improve even more into 2025? And are there any markets that you'd highlight that are still you think we'll continue to deal with elevated levels of supply whether that's like a Phoenix, Atlanta, a few markets in Florida you touched on as well that would be helpful? Thanks.
Joe Margolis: Sure. So we look at supply by looking at our same-store pool and how many stores within our same-store pool will have new supply delivered. In the first quarter, 3% of our same-store pool stores had new supply delivered in their trade area. And that's right on our estimate of 11%, 12%, 13% for the year that's down 30% from 2023 deliveries. I think the headwinds to development, equity dollars, debt dollars, debt costs, construction costs, entitlement periods, all the things that are making the ability to put together a pro forma with rent growth in it, I think all of those items are going to continue to provide a headwind to self-storage development. There certainly are markets Northern New Jersey, some of the Florida markets that do have new supply issues and we'll have to work through those.
Eric Luebchow: Thanks for the questions.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Mueller with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Michael Mueller: Yes, I have a follow-up question on LSI and kind of a sequencing. Talked about potentially closing the occupancy gap this summer and then kind of moving closing the rate gap maybe in the second half of the year. And I guess the question is, when you're talking about closing the rate gap, are you talking about resetting pricing and then starting the process of letting them flow through the system? Or say by year-end you could be a parity in-place portfolio to in-place portfolio?
Scott Stubbs: It's -- Mike it's really a combination of both. The first thing you had to move is the street rates or your achieved rate coming in. So, it's at parity with the Extra Space. So, the new customer would then be paying the same amount than the other differential in the achieved rate -- or I mean in your rent per square foot that's at the store, that will come over time as we do existing customer rate increases.
Michael Mueller: Got it, okay. Understand. Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Omotayo Okusanya with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Omotayo Okusanya: Yes. Good afternoon. First question is just around ECRIs. I'm taking a look at your revenues per occupied -- kind of in the 20s. Again so that means a typical time by 10 units someone's streaming like $220 a month, which isn't an insignificant bill. I mean probably outside of your mortgage and your card payments is probably one of the higher bills one would be paying. So, when I look at that I just kind of asked what is that ability to keep pushing ECRIs kind of 10%, 12%, 15% without that becoming such a huge piece of someone's monthly payments that start to push back?
Joe Margolis: Yes. I'm not sure I agree with your thesis, right? It may be $200 for that unit, but what is your alternative? If it's move from a two-bedroom to a three-bedroom apartment, that delta is probably greater than what you're paying for the unit. I also think it's important to realize that our tenants consistently underestimate how long they're going to stay for. So, maybe $200 a month but normally stay in six or seven months. It's not a permanent drag on your monthly budget. And then they end up staying much longer, but that's a different thing. So, I don't think we're -- this is a flexible convenient important and relatively affordable option for people. And I don't think we're at that point yet where we're capped out on rate.
Omotayo Okusanya: Fair enough. That's helpful. And then my second question if you would allow me. Again the past 10 years, technology has been such a big game-changer in the industry. Could you help us think about the next 10 years whether it's AI or kind of what are you seeing [indiscernible] that helps lower customer acquisition costs, that helps lower cost of operation? And how quickly can we kind of see some of that stuff get implemented and kind of hit your overall numbers?
Joe Margolis: Yes. So I mean I think we're seeing it now and we'll continue to see it because your thesis is right, like technology and AI are going to change things drastically. We used and tested AI in several parts of our business. Sometimes it worked well, sometimes it didn't. We'll continue to help us at the call center, on the web, in all sorts of data analytics. And we are striving to find the right combination of people and technology to run our stores. And we think over time that will help us optimize that expense. So you're right, the last 10 years have shown a lot of change and a lot of efficiencies through technology and I expect the next 10 years to be the same.
Omotayo Okusanya: Thank you.
Joe Margolis: Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Ki Bin Kim with Truist. Your line is open.
Ki Bin Kim: Thank you. Good morning. Just want to go back to your bridge loan program. You obviously announced a pretty major increase in the pipeline. Just curious if you can provide more color on where this demand is coming from? And just high level I mean the rates are a bit higher 9%. So what is the kind of profile of the customer that would come to you guys for this type of loans?
Joe Margolis: So I think it's customers that have expensive equity partners that want to get cashed out folks that don't think this is the greatest sales market where there's been – where there's been value created. One, we talk about the benefits of the Life Storage transaction. One benefit we don't really talk about is we were introduced to a whole new group of partners we didn't have relationships with. So we've closed or have under termed sheet $239 million worth of bridge loans with LSI Partners, we had no relationship with before closing. And we've got – I'm off topic now but we have signed 30 management contracts, new management contracts with LSI partners, we have relationships with. So part of the increase in our bridge loan volume is we have all these new relationships now we got through the merger and we're doing a lot of business with them.
Ki Bin Kim: And that was actually part of my second question. Do the vast majority of these come with management contracts and – management contracts can obviously be terminated but is there a sense that the management contracts lifetime can exceed the bridge loan maturities?
Joe Margolis: So 100% of our bridge loans we managed the property. We will not make a loan on a property we don't manage for – for risk control and economic reasons. So yes, they all come with management contracts. And the management contracts can be canceled. That hardly ever happens. It hardly ever happens if someone cancels a public or a cube contract that comes to us. People don't move like that. We expect, if we're a good manager and we produce good results that we're going to have these relationships and manage these properties after the bridge loan is gone, unless we end up buying the property which is also an opt.
Ki Bin Kim: And second question on CapEx. Can you just provide some color? I know you don't really disclose it on the maintenance CapEx, you spend in 2023 and what we should expect in 2024, obviously excluding development or whatever solar projects you might have?
Scott Stubbs: Ki Bin, our maintenance CapEx has typically been about $0.65 a square foot, and we would expect it to be pretty similar in 2024.
Ki Bin Kim: Okay. Thank you guys.
Scott Stubbs: Thank you, Ki Bin.
Operator: Thank you. There are no further questions. I'd like to turn the call back over to Joe Margolis for closing remarks.
Joe Margolis: Great. Thank you. Thanks, everyone, for your time and your interest in Extra Space. I hope you could tell we are -- we're off to a good start. We're really excited about the rest of the year. We can't control all the variables. We don't know -- we can't control the housing market and the customer. But what we can control, we do very well. We have the platform and the people to take advantage and optimize whatever the external situation is. So I hope everyone has a great day, and thank you for your time.
Operator: Thank you for your participation. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.
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