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Forex - Weekly outlook: November 28 - December 2

Published 11/27/2011, 04:39 AM
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Investing.com – Last week saw the euro decline against the U.S. dollar for the fourth successive week, amid concerns that the debt crisis in the region is beginning to threaten core economies such as Germany and France.

The euro tumbled to a seven-week low against the dollar on Friday as Italian 10-year bond yields climbed to near unsustainable levels, rising above 7% even as the European Central Bank bought bonds in the secondary market.

The rise in Italian borrowing costs came after a disappointing auction of Italian government debt and fanned fears that the debt crisis in the region is deepening.

The auction came two days after Germany, the euro zone’s largest economy, missed its EUR6 billion sales target at an auction of 10-year bonds, in its least successful debt sale since the launch of the single currency.

The poorly received auction was due in some part to low bond yields but sparked concerns that the debt crisis may have started affecting the euro zone's largest economy.

Meanwhile, ratings agency Fitch warned that France could lose its triple-A credit rating if European Union leaders fail to take action to prevent the crisis from worsening.

Investors remained jittery after comments by German Chancellor Angel Merkel underlined concerns that European leaders would be unable to find a resolution to the debt crisis.

Speaking at a joint news conference with France's Nicolas Sarkozy and Italy's Mario Monti following a meeting on Thursday, Merkel reiterated her belief that joint euro zone bonds would remove incentives for individual states to improve their fiscal discipline and rejected calls for an expanded role for the ECB in fighting the debt crisis.

The broadly stronger dollar rose to a two-week high against the yen on Friday and advanced to an almost eight month high against the Swiss franc amid speculation that the Swiss National Bank may raise the targeted exchange rate against the euro from its current 1.20 level.

The pound fell to a seven-week low against the dollar on Friday and looked likely to remain under pressure after a senior Bank of England policymaker said there was strong case for more quantitative easing once the current round of asset purchases was complete.

In the week ahead, investors will be eyeing an auction of Belgian government debt on Monday after ratings agency Standard & Poor's downgraded its rating on Belgium by one notch on Friday.

Meanwhile, euro zone finance ministers are to meet Wednesday to discuss details on leveraging the region's bailout fund, although a major announcement is unlikely.

Also next week, the U.S. is to release its closely watched report on non-farm payrolls.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 28

New Zealand is to publish a report on business confidence, a leading indicator of economic health.

In the euro zone, Germany is to produce preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation, as well as a report on consumer climate, a leading indicator of consumer spending.

The U.K. is to publish industry data on retail sales, an important indicator of economic health.

Also Monday, the U.S. is to release official data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, November 29

Japan is to publish official data on retail sales, the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity as well as data on household spending and the unemployment rate.

Switzerland is to publish its UBS consumption indicator, an important indicator of economic health.

The U.K. is to publish industry data on house price inflation, while the Bank of England is to release data on net lending to individuals, M4 money supply and mortgage approvals. Meanwhile, the Treasury is to publish its annual forecast statement, which previews the government's budget for the coming year.

The U.S. is to release industry data on house price inflation as well as a report on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending.

Elsewhere, Canada is to produce data on the current account while New Zealand is to publish government data on building consents, a leading gauge of future construction activity.

Wednesday, November 30

Japan is to release official data on manufacturing activity, as well as preliminary data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health. The country is also to publish data on average earnings and housing starts.

Elsewhere, Australia is to produce government data on private sector credit and private capital expenditure, leading indicators of economic health.

The U.K. is to publish data on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending, while Switzerland is to publish the KOF economic barometer, which is designed to predict the direction of the economy over the following six months.

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish official data on retail sales and employment change while France is to publish government data on consumer spending. Meanwhile, ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the possible future direction of monetary policy.

The single currency bloc is also to produce preliminary data on consumer price inflation and the unemployment rate. In addition, finance ministers from European Union member states are to meet in Brussels to discuss the ongoing financial crisis in the region.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to release a closely watched report on non-farm payrolls compiled by payroll processing firm ADP, which leads government data by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago area as well as government reports on pending home sales, non-farm productivity, labor costs and crude oil stockpiles.

Also Wednesday, Canada is to publish monthly data on gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health, as well as data on inflation.

Thursday, December 1


Australia is to publish official data on building approvals, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as data on retail sales and commodity prices.

Switzerland is to publish government data on GDP, as well as a report on manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

In the euro zone, ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the possible future direction of monetary policy.

 The U.K. is to publish data on manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Also Thursday, the U.S. is to release its weekly report on initial jobless claims, while the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Friday, December 2

Japan is to produce official data on capital spending, a leading indicator of economic health.

Elsewhere, Switzerland is to release government data on retail sales, while the U.K. is to publish data on construction sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Later in the day, Canada is to publish official data on employment change and the unemployment rate.

The U.S. is to round up the week with a closely watched government report on non-farm employment change, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as data on average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate.


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