By Georgina Prodhan
LONDON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - A proposed $24 billion tie-up between telecoms groups MTN and Bharti Airtel faces more regulatory uncertainty as a self-imposed deadline for the exclusivity of talks between the groups expires on Sept. 30.
Last week, India's market regulator unexpectedly altered the country's takeover rules, meaning that South Africa's MTN might be required to make an offer for an additional 20 percent stake in India's Bharti.
South Africa, eager to retain MTN's national character has also approached Indian authorities to consider a dual-listed structure, which is not allowed under existing Indian laws.
The parties have already twice extended deadlines for the talks aimed at creating an emerging-markets giant with more than 200 million customers across India, Africa and the Middle East.
The deal is now believed to be in the hands of politicians, who are broadly supportive of the proposal, as it is in line with a trilateral economic development initiative between South Africa, India and Brazil.
If it falls through, the parties may well look at other potential partners. Following is a look at some alternatives:
MTN-ZAIN
MTN's Chief Executive Phuthuma Nhleko said last month MTN could buy all or parts of Kuwaiti firm Zain's African operations if the deal with Bharti were called off.
But he called the possibility "very hypothetical" and his remarks were widely interpreted as a signal to Bharti of his frustration at the repeated delays, rather than any serious intention to bid for parts of Zain.
Zain's African operations are estimated to be worth about $10 billion. MTN and Zain have five markets in common, including Nigeria. MTN would gain from Zain's Middle Eastern presence and Zain from MTN's strength in west and central Africa.
But Zain's original plan to sell off its African assets may be abandoned if a proposed sale of a controlling stake to a consortium of telcos and investors goes ahead.
MTN-RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONS
Reliance, India's second-biggest mobile operator, held exclusive talks with MTN in 2008 but called them off due to a feud between Reliance's chairman and his estranged brother that makes stake-swap deals unlikely in the near future.
Despite saying in December it would focus on organic growth, Reliance has snapped up a few small emerging-markets assets and is believed to be considering more.
The company lost to Vodafone in bidding for Hutch Essar in 2007, then the fourth-largest mobile operator in India.
MTN-CHINA MOBILE
China Mobile, the world's biggest mobile carrier by subscribers, is under pressure at home from an expensive buildout of a new, untested third-generation network that it may seek to expand to developing markets such as Africa.
The company's chief executive told the Mobile World Congress fair in February that economic conditions presented an opportunity for buyers of telecom assets but the group remained cautious about further international expansion.
China Mobile has a patchy record on international mergers and acquisitions. It might be more likely to look for partners to bid for licences in developing markets instead.
China has become Africa's top trading partner -- a tenfold increase this decade took the continent's trade with China to $107 billion last year, overtaking trade with the United States.
MTN-VODAFONE Vodafone, the world's biggest mobile group by revenue, has pleased investors recently by repeatedly saying it favours in-market consolidation over ambitious emerging-market buys.
The British company already owns a majority stake in Vodacom , South Africa's biggest mobile operator, and would be unlikely to be allowed to acquire MTN's South African assets.
But it has expressed an interest in Nigeria, a key MTN market. Both companies operate in Ghana but have no other significant overlap on the continent.
MTN-AMERICA MOVIL
Latin American giant America Movil was considered a possible target for MTN after its talks with Reliance broke down last year, and before MTN and Bharti resumed talks.
The Mexican carrier, Latin America's biggest cellphone operator, is active in 18 countries in North, Central and South America and the Caribbean, including Brazil, and could be a politically popular choice of partner for MTN.
The region's previously robust growth has been slowed by recession but still outpaces that of more mature markets. America Movil posted an 11 percent increase in second-quarter revenue and a roughly 2 percent rise in subscribers.
BHARTI-ZAIN Although it is one of the few companies whose name has not been linked with Zain -- perhaps because of its ongoing entanglement with MTN -- Bharti could expand into several African markets with a stake in Zain or its African operations.
Fast-growing Zain operates in 24 countries including Saudi Arabia and Nigeria and, until a recent strategic review, expressed an ambition to become a top 10 global telecom player.
Its so-called One Network strategy, under which it has abolished roaming charges for users across 12 African countries, could make it a good fit for Bharti, which is pursuing a "mobile lite" approach in which it outsources many central functions.
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(Reporting by Georgina Prodhan and Kate Holton in London, Gugulakhe Lourie in Johannesburg, Devidutta Tripathy in New Delhi, Narayanan Somasundaram in Mumbai, Kirby Chien in Beijing and Doug Young in Hong Kong; Writing by Georgina Prodhan, Editing by Sitaraman Shankar)