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Natural gas futures - Weekly outlook: April 22 - 26

Published 04/21/2013, 10:37 AM
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Investing.com - Natural gas futures ended Friday’s session close to the highest level since July 2011, as sentiment on the commodity remained upbeat amid easing concerns over U.S. inventory levels.

Prices drew additional support after weather forecasters continued to point to cold weather in the Northeast and below-normal weather in parts of the Midwest in the coming week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in May dipped 0.3% on Friday to settle the week at USD4.397 per million British thermal units.

On the week, the May contract added 3.1%, the ninth consecutive weekly advance. The May natural gas contract is due to expire at the end of trading on Friday, April 26.

Meanwhile, the more actively traded contract for June delivery ended Friday’s session up 0.7% to hit USD4.437 per million British thermal units, the strongest level since July 22, 2011.

On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that natural gas storage rose by 31 billion cubic feet last week, compared to expectations for an increase of 34 billion cubic feet.

It was the season's first injection, which came about three weeks later than usual.

Inventories increased by 21 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a build of 39 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 1.704 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 32% lower than last year at this time and 4.2% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Early injection estimates for this week’s storage data range from 24 billion cubic feet to 48 billion cubic feet.

Inventories rose by 43 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a rise of 50 billion cubic feet.

Typically this time of year, stockpiles begin to climb as milder spring temperatures curb demand for natural gas.

Nymex gas prices have risen sharply in recent weeks, gaining almost 40% since mid-February, boosted by calls for colder temperatures in major consuming regions across the U.S. that helped tighten the market.

Still, some analysts have warned that further gains may be limited with spring's low-demand shoulder season looming.

The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Nearly 50% of all U.S. households use gas for heating.

Gas use usually hits a seasonal low with spring's mild temperatures, before warmer weather increases demand for gas-fired electricity generation to power air conditioning.

Elsewhere in the energy complex, light sweet crude oil futures for June delivery settled at USD88.23 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, losing 3.1% on the week.

Meanwhile, heating oil for May delivery dropped 2.6% over the week to settle at USD2.791 per gallon by close of trade Friday.

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