Assurant (NYSE:AIZ), Inc. AIZ is slated to report fourth-quarter 2021 earnings on Feb 8, after the closing bell. AIZ delivered an earnings surprise in each of the reported quarters of 2021.
Factors to Note
Revenues are likely to benefit from improved net earned premiums, and fees and other income. Lower net investment income is likely to have weighed on the upside. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.6 billion, which suggests growth of 2.3% from the year-ago quarter.
The consensus mark for net earned premiums and other considerations stands at $2.2 billion, which indicates an improvement of 4.4% from the prior-year reported figure. Meanwhile, the same for fees and other income is pegged at $286 million, suggesting growth of 15.3% from the year-ago quarter.
However, a continued lower interest rate environment is likely to have weighed on the net investment income in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter net investment income stands at $78 million, which indicates a decline of 47% year over year.
With respect to segments, Global Lifestyle segment is expected to have benefited from the well-performing Global Automotive and Connected Living. New and expanded programs as well as a contribution from recent acquisitions are likely to have aided the upside. Claims activity in Connected Living and auto normalizing at higher levels, adverse forex, and lower investment income, among others, are expected to have weighed on earnings.
The Global Housing segment is likely to have benefited on the back of increased premium rates, average-insured values and solid growth in Multifamily housing in the to-be-reported quarter.
An increase in policyholder benefits, underwriting, general and administrative expenses and interest expense is expected to have increased. Escalating costs stemming from investments undertaken to boost technology and operational capabilities are likely to have weighed on margin growth.
Continued share buybacks might have provided a boost to the bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings stands at $2.30 per share, which suggests an improvement of 26.3% from the prior-year reported figure.
What Our Quantitative Model Unveils
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Assurant this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Assurant has an Earnings ESP of -2.17%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.25 is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.30. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Assurant has a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Some stocks worth considering from the insurance space with the perfect mix of elements to surpass estimates in their upcoming quarterly releases are as follows:
Arch Capital Group (NASDAQ:ACGL) ACGL has an Earnings ESP of +1.48% and a Zacks Rank #2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Arch Capital’s 2022 earnings has moved 1.1% north in the past 30 days. ACGL’s expected long-term earnings growth rate is pegged at 10%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Arch Capital’s 2022 earnings implies a year-over-year increase of 31.5%. ACGL’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average beat being 32.7%.
American International Group (NYSE:AIG) AIG has an Earnings ESP of +4.88% and a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for American International’s 2022 earnings has moved 0.2% north in the past 30 days. AIG’s expected long-term earnings growth rate is pegged at 10%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for American International’s 2022 earnings implies a year-over-year increase of 15.6%. AIG’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed in one, the average beat being 8.5%.
American Equity Investment Life (NYSE:AEL) Holding AEL has an Earnings ESP of +2.86% and a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for American Equity’s 2022 earnings implies a year-over-year increase of 48.6%.
AEL’s earnings surpassed estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two, the average beat being 31.4%.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Zacks' Top Picks to Cash in on Artificial Intelligence
In 2021, this world-changing technology is projected to generate $327.5 billion in revenue. Now Shark Tank star and billionaire investor Mark Cuban says AI will create "the world's first trillionaires." Zacks' urgent special report reveals 3 AI picks investors need to know about today.
See 3 Artificial Intelligence Stocks With Extreme Upside Potential>>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
American International Group, Inc. (AIG): Free Stock Analysis Report
Assurant, Inc. (AIZ): Free Stock Analysis Report
American Equity Investment Life Holding Company (AEL): Free Stock Analysis Report
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL): Free Stock Analysis Report
To read this article on Zacks.com click here.
Zacks Investment Research