Week in Review Part III: Foreign Affairs

Iran: This coming week is critical in the realm of international affairs as the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is slated to release its most detailed report yet on Iran’s nuclear program. While it may not spell out specifically that Iran is intent on building nuclear weapons, and that its nuclear program is not for peaceful, civilian purposes, evidently all the clues will be there, making it readily apparent just what Iran is up to.

Thus, this gives the United States the pretext to ask the U.N. and the likes of Russia and China to not only strengthen the existing sanctions regimes, but to apply more direct pressure on Tehran to give it up.

Israel is pushing for a strike, though it prefers Washington take the lead, and I’ve been writing the White House will, perhaps sometime in the spring should Iran not change its behavior beforehand. I’ll have a lot more on this once the report is out.

Meanwhile, President Ahmadinejad’s finance minister survived a vote in parliament to remove him over the country’s banking scandal, which would have been a huge blow to the president. The bank fraud is a record $2.6 billion. Parliament is still trying to call Ahmadinejad to answer questions, which would be the first time since the 1979 revolution that a president was summoned for questioning by parliament.

Iraq: To give you a sense of how happy Iran is that the U.S. is leaving Iraq, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamanei praised Iraq’s “unified resistance” in forcing the U.S. military out.

The New York Times reports, however, that the Obama administration is looking to reposition many of the departing Iraqi forces elsewhere in the region, such as in Kuwait to be able to respond to a collapse of security in Iraq or a confrontation with Iran.
Max Boot / Wall Street Journal

“Friday afternoon is a traditional time to bury bad news, so at 12:49 p.m. on Oct. 21 President Obama strode into the White House briefing room to ‘report that, as promised, the rest of our troops in Iraq will come home by the end of the year – after nearly nine years, America’s war in Iraq will be over.’ He acted as though this represented a triumph, but it was really a defeat. The U.S. had hoped to extend the presence of our troops past Dec. 31. Why did we fail?

“The popular explanation is that the Iraqis refused to provide legal immunity for U.S. troops if they are accused of breaking Iraq’s laws. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki himself said: ‘When the Americans asked for immunity, the Iraqi side answered that it was not possible. The discussions over the number of trainers and the place of training stopped. Now that the issue of immunity was decided and that no immunity is to be given, the withdrawal has started.’

“But Mr. Maliki and other Iraqi political figures expressed exactly the same reservations about immunity in 2008 during the negotiation of the last Status of Forces Agreement. Indeed those concerns were more acute at the time because there were so many more U.S. personnel in Iraq – nearly 150,000, compared with fewer than 50,000 today. So why was it possible for the Bush administration to reach a deal with the Iraqis but not for the Obama administration?

“Quite simply it was a matter of will: President Bush really wanted to get a deal done, whereas Mr. Obama did not. Mr. Bush spoke weekly with Mr. Maliki by video teleconference. Mr. Obama had not spoken with Mr. Maliki for months before calling him in late October to announce the end of negotiations. Mr. Obama and his senior aides did not even bother to meet with Iraqi officials at the United Nations General Assembly in September….

“Iraq will increasingly find itself on its own, even though its air forces still lack the capability to defend its own airspace and its ground forces cannot carry out large-scale combined arms operations. Multiple terrorist groups also remain active, and almost as many civilians died in Iraq last year as in Afghanistan.

“So the end of the U.S. military mission in Iraq is a tragedy, not a triumph – and a self-inflicted one at that.”

By the way, Army Times’ Michelle Tan points out that by year end, the U.S. will be redeploying 700,000 pieces of equipment out of Iraq, or 300 to 500 convoys each week.

Afghanistan: Speaking of pullouts, the White House appears to want to speed up the withdrawal from Afghanistan, moving it up to next year rather than 2014 in assuming an early advisory role, which Obama would like to announce during the campaign. The White House and U.S. military will make the claim that Afghan security forces have made great strides.

Otherwise, it was a terrible week as the Taliban launched the largest single suicide attack on Kabul of the war, attacking an armored shuttle bus that killed four U.S. soldiers, eight American contractors, a Canadian soldier and four Afghans. In Kandahar, a separate Taliban attack on a U.N. refugee agency killed three U.N. employees.

Syria: President Bashar Assad was said to have accepted an Arab League proposal calling for an end to attacks against protesters and the withdrawal of forces from cities, as well as to release detainees and allow foreign media into the country. That was on Wednesday. On Thursday, 20 were reportedly killed in Homs as violence resumed, with tanks in the streets on Friday as well. The death toll is now said to be 4,000 in eight months of unrest.

The bottom line is Assad will entertain reform as long as he stays in power.

So now, as the Wall Street Journal editorialized, President Obama gets to lead from behind again since Turkey’s Prime Minister Erdogan is the one applying the most pressure on Syria. Turkey is looking to impose further sanctions on Damascus, as well as provide for a possible buffer zone to protect Syrian civilians as tensions rise between the two former strategic partners. I wrote just a few weeks ago that we should encourage Erdogan to invade Syria…give it to Turkey. I say that just half tongue in cheek.

And remember, ousting Assad would be a huge blow to Hizbullah…and that is good!

Speaking of Lebanon, Syria is accused of orchestrating the kidnapping of Syrian dissidents in Lebanon. I have no problem repeating that Assad should be assassinated.

Israel: UNESCO, the United Nations’ cultural agency, accepted Palestine as a member* on Monday, infuriating Israel which is now withholding $100 million in monthly tax payments it holds and then transfers to the Palestinian Authority. Also in response, no doubt, Israel said it would accelerate the construction of 2,000 housing units in contested areas of East Jerusalem and the West Bank. The Palestinians have been demanding a complete halt to construction before they’ll resume negotiations. A spokesman for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said the Israeli government’s decision would “accelerate the destruction of the peace process.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded:

“We are building in Jerusalem because it is our right and our duty to this generation and future generations, not as punishment but as the basic right of our people to build in its eternal city. Jerusalem will never return to the state it was in on the eve of the (1967) Six-Day War, that I promise you.”

So you combine Israel’s move with that of the U.N. and you have zero cause for optimism, not that you should have ever had cause for such in the first place.

Along these lines, I was reading a piece by Barbara Opall-Rome in Defense News and two recently published reports from respected think tanks in Washington and Tel Aviv come to the same conclusion. “Lack of progress toward Israeli-Palestinian peace will intensify Israel’s international isolation, strain ties with Washington, ignite hostility from new governments taking shape in the region and restrict Israel’s ability to use its military might, even for legitimate purposes of self-defense.”

*The U.S. and Canada cut off funding for UNESCO due to its admittance of Palestine, a move both say is not in the best interests of Middle East peace. Canada contributes $10 million, the U.S. $60 million, critical funding for the organization.

Egypt: Ironically, liberals and Islamists are now united against the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which is seeking to give the generals a veto over legislation dealing with military affairs, as well as curtail the influence of Islamist lawmakers in writing a new constitution down the road, with the generals being granted veto power over drafts.  Plus the generals seek to keep the military budget secret, while wanting to place their financial interests beyond civilian scrutiny even after handing over power.

Egypt’s parliamentary elections begin Nov. 28 and last six weeks, after which a 100-member constituent assembly will be nominated which will write the new constitution. The presidential vote will be much later in 2012.

Lastly, if you stupidly thought now must be a good time to discover Egypt, a Financial Times piece this week echoed everything I’ve read and written of before on the crime problem. There is no police presence anymore, and what were once simple commutes for workers have now become a living hell as armed gangs with automatic weapons rob businessmen on the highways and take their cars. One business had 100 tons of copper taken by a gang that tied up security guards.

More importantly for the future of Egypt, what foreign business would want to operate there?

Libya: The inability of the interim government to control the 25 or so militias is a major concern. Militias are fighting in the streets of Tripoli, including, as reported by the Financial Times, in the corridors of the main hospital. The militias all say they won’t give up their weapons until they know who they are giving them up to. Innocents are terrified. Gangs just drive around the capital with heavy weapons mounted on their trucks, firing in the air (those bullets are indeed killing people on the way down, it was also reported this week, something the National Transition Council is trying to tackle). These people are idiots.

Additionally, smuggling of arms into Egypt is rampant, including shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles. The new government is unable to secure arms depots

Pakistan: In what could be a significant positive, Pakistan’s cabinet agreed to normalize trade relations with India. Both countries said they want to more than double trade between them. Consumers in Pakistan will benefit from more and cheaper Indian goods. Consumers in India? Give me five minutes…not sure how they benefit just yet.

China: A report out of the U.S. intelligence community says cyberattacks by Chinese and Russian intel services have stolen large amounts of American high-tech research and development data, not that anyone didn’t already know this. It’s easier to steal the information through cyberattacks than laborious human intelligence, after all. What makes the report different is in its targeting of Russia and China directly, though it offers no specifics, including what percentage of the attacks are government directed. Actually, in typing this up it’s really about some U.S. high-level types trying to cover their ass.

Meanwhile, dissident artist Ai Weiwei vowed to fight Chinese authorities “to the death” over the government’s claim a company linked to him (owned by his wife) owes $2.4 million in taxes.
So say “Bye-bye” to Weiwei.

Russia: The Kremlin has reached a deal with Georgia on a bilateral agreement that opens the door for Russia’s admittance into the World Trade Organization. Yeesh. It only took 18 years! But instead of the U.S. and Europe being the final stumbling block, it came down to Georgia, with whom Russia fought a brief war in 2008. Actually, the Swiss brokered the deal, a compromise to monitor trade flow between the disputed regions in the Caucasus Mountains.

And in the investigation of the Yak-42 jet crash that claimed the lives of virtually the entire Lokomotiv hockey team back on Sept. 7, authorities have determined the cause to be pilot error, as in the pilots were so ill-trained they evidently continued takeoff even as they inadvertently applied the brakes, according to the investigation. It was discovered the Russian charter operator falsified training records and had lax discipline and safety procedures, while the co-pilot had a medical condition that should have prevented him from ever being in the cockpit.

The report is pathetic. The pilot was literally slamming on the brakes as he tried to gain speed and lift, not knowing he was stepping on the brakes because he was used to the pedal configuration in another plane he had flown.

North Korea: Kim Jong-il isn’t allowing 200 North Koreans working in Libya to return home because he doesn’t want their takes on the Arab Spring reaching his isolated regime. “Man” falls another few notches on the All-Species List.

Japan: It’s alive!!! Reactor No. 2 at Fukushina, that is. Radioactive elements were detected this week as the plant’s owner admitted fuel deep inside three stricken reactors is probably still experiencing bursts of fission. As the New York Times described, these are like flare-ups after a major fire. While this hardly means there could be a large-scale nuclear reaction, it certainly complicates clean-up efforts.

Kyrgyzstan: The only reason why you should care that this country elected a new president this week, Almazbek Atambayev (Herman Cain isn’t expected to know this guy’s name), is because he said he would seek to close a large American military base there when its lease runs out in 2014. The base has been a critical supply hub for the war in Afghanistan since 2001 and is the only one of its kind in the region. Atambayev actually has a good point.

“We know that the United States is often engaged in military conflicts,” he said. “There was Iraq and Afghanistan, and now there are tensions with Iran. I would not want any of these countries to launch a retaliatory strike on the military base one day.” [Michael Schmidt / New York Times]

I have a little interest in Kyrgyzstan as a rare earth mineral play I’m in has a major facility here. The company has large Russian roots and Russia is anxious to bring Kyrgyzstan more formally back into its orbit, which I would welcome! [Because at the end of the day, it’s all about me.]

Somalia: I’ve written in the past about the Somali-Americans in Minneapolis, who go to Somalia for terrorist training and one day will come back home to terrorize us, so U.S. officials have identified the third such individual to become a suicide bomber for al Shabab, an al Qaeda offshoot.  The FBI says 30 such Americans have joined Shabab.

Thailand: The severe flooding poses a growing health threat. Picture how vast parts of the country are nothing more than lakes of sewage, garbage and animal carcasses.

Britain: I was reading an article on the upcoming 2012 London Olympics and how word has gone out that the security needs have doubled, including a call for 6,000 more soldiers on top of the cops and private security forces being amassed. But the Financial Times story doesn’t mention the Occupy Wall Street (Occupy London) types that will provide a threat of their own.