Week in Review Part III: Foreign Affairs

Libya: The ruling National Transitional Council vowed to prosecute the killers of Muammar Gaddafi, citing “some violations” in the handling of prisoners as well amid an international outcry over torture claims. Gaddafi, a son, and a close aide were buried on Tuesday at an undisclosed location in the desert.

The big immediate issue for the NTC is to attempt to disarm the militias, over 25 of them. Arms must be consolidated under one national security force, or, for starters, foreign companies will not return unless they can ensure the safety of their workers. But there is too much ‘score-settling’ to take place, witness the torture claims on all sides. Human Rights Watch reported that 53 Gaddafi loyalist troops were massacred in the center of Sirte, the final Gaddafi stronghold.

As for NATO, the NTC wanted it to stay through yearend but NATO’s mission is officially over as of Monday.

Syria: Friday was one of the worst days of the uprising as troops killed at least 40 civilians and the Arab League sent an “urgent message” to the Assad regime, calling on it to stop the violence against innocents. Troops were also seen planting mines along a border with Lebanon on Thursday in a bid to stem weapons smuggling to the budding Syrian opposition militia.

The Arab American Institute, which carries out periodic polling in the Middle East, has President Bashar Assad with approval ratings near zero in some Arab countries. As recently as 2008, Assad polled as one of the most respected leaders in the region. 1% (you’re reading that right) in Lebanon said Assad can still govern Syria, though 39% said Hizbullah was playing a positive role there, and, lest Washington feel smug, 0% of Lebanese felt the U.S. had a positive influence on Syria.

Lastly, the U.S. withdrew its ambassador, Robert Ford, because of credible threats to his safety that the White House explicitly blamed the Syrian regime for, while Amnesty International reports that patients in at least four state hospitals are being tortured in an attempt to suppress dissent.

Iran: Russia warned the U.N. on Tuesday against an imminent report by the International Atomic Energy Agency that is expected to heighten tension between Iran and the rest of the world, Russia claiming that the report will strain efforts to start serious negotiations. The IAEA is expected to spell out why it believes Iran is intent on building the bomb, unless the IAEA backs off due to pressure from both Russia and China.

Separately, there were further signs of tension between supporters of President Mahoud Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The hardline clerics want to sweep parliamentary elections slated for next March, which can then be used as a platform for the presidential vote in 2013
Saudi Arabia: King Abdullah appointed Interior Minister Prince Nayef as his new heir following the death of Crown Prince Sultan, who had been next in line.

Nayef is also the Deputy Prime Minister and is a known conservative and authoritarian. But then there is the growing tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Bronwen Maddox / London Times

“Never mind trade with China, or even the crisis in the eurozone; these may come to be seen as foreign policy luxuries compared with the threat of a stand-off between Saudi Arabia and Iran. It is shaping up to be the most difficult international problem confronting Britain and the U.S. – and could be the first crisis facing President Obama or his successor after next year’s presidential election….

“(Nayef’s) reputation and past instincts do not make him seem the best candidate for handling Saudi Arabia’s simmering social problems in the heat of the Arab Spring. The population has more than tripled over the past 34 years; even the oil wealth has failed to maintain standards of living for all. Despite King Abdullah’s efforts, the economy has only just begun to diversify from oil and gas. Nor has a work culture developed; many jobs are done by temporary foreign workers.

“Unemployment is at 11 percent, but is much higher for young men, and the kingdom has begun to pay benefits for the first time – an explicit use of oil wealth to buy peace. The women’s movement is increasingly vocal and will not be satisfied by the recently granted right to vote in near-meaningless provincial elections.

“Most of all, the Shia minority, largely based in the oil-rich Eastern Province, has watched with rage the Saudi-backed suppression of the uprising by Bahrain’s largely Shia population.”

Meanwhile, the Saudis are watching the standoff between Iran and the U.S. et al regarding Iran’s nuclear program. The Saudis have made it clear that if Iran gets the bomb, they want one too. The kingdom would easily get it from Pakistan, which the Saudis have bankrolled.

Bronwen Maddox concludes:
“The Arab Spring has injected hope and a sense of change across countries whose governments have been frozen for generations.  But the shadow over it has been the outlook for Saudi Arabia, given its record of always responding very little, very late to pressure for change.

“Perhaps, through repression, the Royal Family can continue to hold off such forces for years. But the clash with Iran is a new reason for thinking that stability may not last.”

Israel: Palestinian officials denied that President Mahmoud Abbas is resigning. Abbas hinted during the week at the possible dissolution of the Palestinian Authority, telling an Egyptian TV station that the PA “was not an authority and many people and institutions ask me about the futility of maintaining it.”

On the Gilad Schalit issue, Hizbullah leader Sheikh Nasrallah praised Hamas’ decision to hold the Israeli soldier alive and well in Gaza for so long, this as Israel completed another prisoner release, this time with Egypt. Ilan Grapel, an American law student from Queens who holds dual Israeli citizenship, was arrested in Egypt in June and charged with spying for Israel. He was exchanged for 25 Egyptians held in Israeli prisons, none of whom is deemed a security threat, unlike many of the Hamas prisoners who were released in exchange for Schalit.

Commenting on the lopsided Israeli-Hamas deal, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Israel would “do what we have to do” to ensure that it does not release such a large amount of prisoners in future kidnapping instances, adding, Hamas will understand the change.

Barak said that a “life-loving country cannot continue” to release over 1,000 prisoners for a soldier. “This slippery slope has to stop. A change is needed.”
But Barak denied Israel was weakened by the Schalit exchange. “It strengthened solidarity. We lived up to an unwritten code on protecting soldiers who went out on missions and find themselves kidnapped. We have a supreme obligation to them.”

On the settlement front, Vice Premier Ya’alon, referring to a report that Prime Minister Netanyahu was willing to freeze all construction on government land in West Bank settlements if Mahmoud Abbas resumed direct negotiations, said, “The demand for territory without Jews anywhere else would be called ethnic cleansing. We cannot accept a demand for ethnic cleansing in the land of Israel.”

In Lebanon, 11 Israeli warplanes violated Lebanese airspace in a period of two days, as reported by the National News Agency. I don’t care what the Israelis say, this violates U.N. resolutions.

Iraq: In the first significant attack since President Obama declared the full withdrawal of U.S. forces at the end of the year, at least 18 were killed in a Shiite neighborhood in Baghdad, Thursday, as a result of a twin bombing, the second timed for when rescue workers arrived on the scene.

Afghanistan: One day President Hamid Karzai said that if in the unlikely event the United States found itself in a war with Pakistan, Afghanistan would side with the latter. “Afghanistan is your brother.” Two days later, Karzai backed off, saying he was misinterpreted.

Tunisia: The Islamist Ennahda (Renaissance) party won an estimated 43 percent of the vote in the first free election of the Arab Spring. Everyone says they are moderates, but while they will need coalition partners to rule, the real test will be in the writing of the country’s new constitution within a year. For now we’ll just sit back and observe.

Thailand: The worst flooding in 50 years is a true national calamity, with the impact on all facets of the economy, from agriculture to manufacturing to tourism, being severe. Food and fresh water shortages are growing rapidly worse. Anyone with the ability to do so is leaving Bangkok. Supply chains for some of the world’s biggest corporations, like Toyota, have been crippled. Why, in the aftermath, would you invest in new plants here? New Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is doing a terrible job and one would think another coup is in the cards, though it wasn’t her fault the country’s haphazard over-development helped lead to the destruction of natural outlets for the flood water.

China: The government in Zhejiang province downplayed a series of riots in the town of Zhili as more than 1,000 migrant workers attacked cars and buildings.

The area is the site for 5,000 baby clothing factories and the workers were protesting a new tax on sewing machines, with a prominent factory owner then refusing to pay it, while gathering supporters to confront the tax collector. The government then rescinded the tax.

Videos of the rioting were displayed on Sina Weibo, China’s equivalent to Twitter, the use of such social networking coming under government attack this week as a big crackdown on the networks looms. How the people handle this is going to be a critical issue over the next 6 to 12 months. Sina Weibo is used by 400 million Chinese posting opinions and sharing information. Heretofore the government pretty much looked the other way. No longer. Beijing is now seeking to ensure “orderly dissemination of information.” In response, Sina has hired 1,000 staff to monitor the flow of messages through its servers.

North Korea: Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, in a visit to Japan and South Korea, called North Korea “reckless and provocative,” while also criticizing China for its secret military buildup. Panetta emphasized that Pyongyang is developing nuclear and ballistic missiles that pose a threat to the entire region, harsh language compared to recent White House statements.

The U.S. wrapped up talks with North Korea on the issue of resuming long-stalled talks on their nuclear program, but there were no breakthroughs.

The main immediate concern is that Kim Jong Il’s ongoing process of transferring leadership to his youngest son could lead to new aggressive acts and the U.S. and South Korea made it clear this week that any such moves would be met with serious force.

As for China, Panetta said it is “rapidly modernizing its military, but with a troubling lack of transparency, coupled with increasingly assertive activity in the East and South China Seas.”
Argentina: President Cristina Kirchner won a second term in office by the widest vote margin in Argentine history and now Britain, for one, is waiting to see what she will do in her campaign to win back the Falklands. Relations between the two countries are at a new low over British oil exploration in the area. It was last June that Kirchner accused Prime Minister David Cameron of “arrogance” and “stupidity” for vowing the islands would remain British forever.

Britain: Meanwhile, Cameron faced major troubles back home. During last weekend’s EU summit, French President Sarkozy accused Britain of “interfering” with a currency it never wanted. “You have lost a good opportunity to shut up. We are sick of you criticizing us and telling us what to do.” Cameron had said that changing the treaty, as some want to do, “can only happen if it is agreed to by all the 27 member states. Any change is an opportunity for Britain to advance our national interest.”

But Germany wants to discuss treaty changes in December and Cameron says now is not the right time to start clawing back powers from Brussels as he previously promised his own Tory faithful. So the party is in internal revolt over whether Britain should even be part of the European Union.

Meanwhile, as the Financial Times reported, while the Tories debate whether to leave the EU, the Scottish National party is advancing Scotland’s departure from Britain. The SNP leader, Alex Salmond, “has the confidence and guile to change the political weather.” What was once just talk could turn into reality over the coming decade or so.

Italy: The London Times reports that Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi paid millions of euros to women even before his split from his wife in 2009, like almost $4 million worth; $300,000 of which went to ex-Miss Lithuania Rasa Kulyte from Berlusconi’s private bank account.