Weekly Technical Analysis For March 25th to 29th, 2019
EUR/USD
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged last Wednesday. The Fed surprised markets by announcing there will be no more rate hikes in 2019. They said it would stop its balance-sheet reduction program in September. Additionally, Fed policymakers cut their outlook on U.S. economic growth for 2019 and beyond.
On the other hand, the euro was under pressure Last Friday with the PMI data out of the EU were much weaker than expected. German flash Manufacturing PMI hit 6-year lows of 44.7 in March.
Looking ahead, the US GDP for the four quarter will be published Thursday. It is expected to ease to 2.4% annual rate from 2.6% the previous number.
In addition to the US GDP number, we will watch Building Permits, Housing Starts, CB Consumer Confidence and Core PCE Price Index in the upcoming week. Also, keep your eyes on comments from Fed officials this week for insights into the outlook for monetary policy in the months ahead.
If we look at the eurozone area, the German Consumer Prices index is expected to stay at 1.5%. A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative for the euro.
Focus on the 1.1285 key support level in the EUR/USD pair. As long as the pair stays above 1.1285 on a four hourly basis, the downward movement may be limited and we will see 1.1355 as a daily resistance level. On the other hand, if the price breaks down 1.1285, the next daily support level can be found at 1.1219.
Support: 1.1285 - 1.1219 - 1.1103
Resistance: 1.1355 - 1.1450 - 1.1554
GBP/USD
Last Thursday, the Bank of England left its key interest rate unchanged as expected. Moreover, the annual rate of change in Britain's CPI rose unexpectedly in February but remained below the Bank of England’s inflation target.
On the other hand, the jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 3.9% in the three months to January, its lowest level since January 1975.
In the upcoming week, the UK GDP is expected to stay at 1.3%, year-on-year. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the sterling
The GBP/USD pair showed a downward movement below the daily resistance level of 1.3217 in the Asian Session. In the event that the fall continues, we will follow the 1.3152 key support level. In contrast, if the pair goes beyond 1.3217, the next resistance level will be at 1.3291
Support: 1.3152 - 1.3055 - 1.2994
Resistance: 1.3217 - 1.3291 - 1.3365
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair showed a downward movement last week. The 109.57 daily support level is significant for the currency. As long as the pair stays above 109.57 on a daily basis, the downward movement may be limited and we will see the key resistance level at 110.35 again. On the other hand, if the pair breaks down below 109.57, the next support level can be found at 108.85.
Support: 109.57 - 108.95 - 108.49
Resistance: 110.35 - 111.18 - 111.85
Gold
The Gold Price reached the 1316 daily resistance level. In order for the rise to gain more momentum, it needs to break out and stay above 1316 on a daily basis. At this point, the next resistance level can be seen in 1327. Otherwise, we will see 1305 as a key support level again.
Support: 1305 - 1291 - 1278
Resistance: 1316 - 1327 - 1338
Crude Oil
The Crude Oil Price showed a downward movement in the Asian Session. In the event that the fall continues, we will follow the 57.88 daily support level. In contrast, If the price shows an upward movement, we will see 59.01 as a resistance level.
Support: 57.88 - 56.67 - 55.43
Resistance: 59.01 - 60.38 - 61.57