Pharma Mar (MC:PHMR) is approaching two key milestones in H217: an approval decision for Aplidin for multiple myeloma in Europe; and Phase III results for lurbinectedin in ovarian cancer.
The Chugai licence deal for lurbinectedin in Japan has strengthened the company’s financial position (pro forma net debt €32m) and seen it put increased emphasis on its preferred strategy to either self-commercialise or co-promote lurbinectedin in the U.S. Separately, a U.S. manufacturing patent granted last year has extended IP protection for lurbinectedin until at least December 2032. These developments have prompted us to adopt co-promotion in the U.S. in our base case valuation scenario and to extend our rNPV model to 2035 vs 2030 previously. Our base case valuation has increased by 29% to €1.29bn (vs €1.01bn), or €5.79/share (vs €4.55/share).
Lurbinectedin ovarian Phase III results in H217
Results from the 443-patient Phase III trial of lurbinectedin in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer are expected in H217. In an earlier Phase IIb trial, progression-free survival (PFS) was much greater for lurbinectedin than for topotecan (5.7 vs 1.7 months), which bodes well for the trial outcome.
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