On Friday, the EIA reported a mild withdrawal of only -31Bcf, much lighter than expectations and much lighter than the 5-year average draw of -108 Bcf that decreased supplies to 3.195 Bcf and increased surpluses from +19 Bcf to +96 Bcf.
Undoubtedly this situation was evident enough to control natural gas bulls, but still, the buying seems to continue after the weekly inventory announcement.
I find that the shifting appearance of frigid air over the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast this Thursday will result in strong demand for natural gas. After the mild break over much of the U.S. this weekend, another cold shot will track across the Midwest and East early next week with rain, snow, and lows of -20s to 30s for another round of strong demand. Warmer conditions will return mid and late next week with nights with highs of the 40s to 70s over much of the U.S. besides the colder Midwest.
This overall weather scenario has started to leave reflection over the movements of futures. Despite the lesser weekly withdrawal, buying a spree on Friday that kept the futures above $3.8 indicates the formation of a strong base for the upcoming blasting move soon.
In an hourly chart, the appearance of a bullish candle at 02:00 A.M. compels me to take a long position with a stop-loss order at $3.637 for an immediate target at $4.117. The futures could take a decisive move after 07:00 A.M. this will finally decide the further directional move for this weekly closing level. But the overall sentiments look to be tilting in favor of bulls. I request all the readers not to miss my upcoming videos on natural gas and other commodities at my YouTube channel SS Analysis.
Disclaimer: The author of this analysis does not have any position in Natural Gas futures. Readers are advised to take any position at their own risk; as Natural Gas is one of the most liquid commodities of the world.