Daily Market Outlook: December 11, 2014

EURUSD

The Euro is steady in the near-term, with Three Black Soldiers reversal pattern being formed and daily close above 20SMA, suggesting further recovery. Fresh strength from 1.2360, where higher base was left, approaches lower boundary of 1.2505/30 pivotal resistance zone. Corrective pullback from spike high at 1.2493, finds initial support at 1.2435, daily 20SMA and should be ideally contained at 1.24 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2244/1.2493 rally / ceiling of yesterday’s consolidation range, before eventual attempt through 1.2505/30 pivots. Positive near-term studies and ascending daily indicators, support further upside action. Break of 1.2530 to face daily 55SMA at 1.2554, ahead of breakpoint at 1.26 zone , 19 Nov peak. Only extension below 1.2360 higher base, also under 50% retracement of 1.2244/1.2493, would undermine near-term bulls.

Res: 1.2460; 1.2493; 1.2505; 1.2530
Sup: 1.2430; 1.2400; 1.2360; 1.2340




EURJPY

The pair continues to move lower, in extended pullback from at 149.76, 08 Dec peak. Fresh weakness, which shows the third consecutive daily close in red and reversal pattern formation, also closed below daily 20SMA, which increases pressure for retest of pivotal support at 145.57, 24 Nov low. Dips found temporary footstep at 146.40, former higher base, with consolidative phase expected to precede final extension towards 145.57 breakpoint. Corrective attempts off 146.40, should be contained at 148 zone, near mid-point of 149.76/146.41 descend, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line. Sustained break here, however, would delay near-term bears and signal higher low formation.

Res: 147.30; 147.70; 148.00; 148.35
Sup: 147.00; 146.40; 146.00; 145.57




GBPUSD

Cable continues to trend higher, as fresh rally, which emerged from 1.5650 consolidation floor, closed above daily 20SMA and peaked ticks away from 1.5761 barrier, 01 Dec lower top and Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.5823/1.5539 descend, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line. This is seen as the last barrier on the way to breakpoint at 1.5823, high of 27 Nov, clearance of which to mark near-term bottom, for stronger correction. North-heading daily indicators, with positive near-term studies, are supporting the notion. Corrective dips, which were so far contained at psychological 1.57 support, should not exceed 1.5650 higher base, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line, in case of extended pullback.

Res: 1.5755; 1.5761; 1.5800; 1.5823
Sup: 1.5700; 1.5670; 1.5650; 1.5624




USDJPY

The pair remains under pressure, with fresh extension of pullback from 121.83 peak, approaching pivotal 117.22 support, 27 Nov higher low. Yesterday’s repeated close in red, which formed Three Black Crows reversal pattern and close below daily 20SMA, signal that the pair is at breakpoint for stronger correction, with sustained break below 117.22. required to confirm. Hesitation at 117.22 support, could be expected, as daily indicators are turning from south-heading route, and near-term’s coming out of oversold zone. Extended corrective rallies should be capped under 120 zone, yesterday’s high / near Fibonacci 61.8% of 121.83/117.43 descend.

Res: 118.47; 118.67; 119.00; 119.44
Sup: 117.83; 117.43; 117.22; 117.00



AUDUSD

Yesterday’s positive close signals near-term corrective action, as the pair extend higher from 0.8222, 09 Dec low. Recovery attempts reach important barrier at 0.8380, 50% of 0.8540/0.8222 descend, reinforced by daily 10SMA / Tenkan-sen line. Close above here is required to confirm recovery and open 0.8420, former lows and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, and 0.8440, Fibonacci 38.2% of larger 0.8794/0.8222 descend. Hourly studies are positive, however, further extension higher is required to move ascending 4-hour indicators into positive territory and confirm recovery, as daily RSI supports on attempts to move out of oversold zone. Alternatively, upside rejection and weakness below 0.8283 higher low / Fibonacci 61.8% of0.8222/0.8373 rally, would sideline near-term bulls.

Res: 0.8346; 0.8373; 0.8400; 0.8420
Sup: 0.8318; 0.8300; 0.8283; 0.8262




AUD/NZD

The pair slumped yesterday, after losing initial support at 1.0754, floor of near-term consolidative 1.0754/1.0864 range, to hit 1.0618 low and mark full retracement of 1.0619/1.1301 rally. Yesterday’s long red candle is strong bearish signal, with completion of the bull-phase from 1.0619, now looking for next significant supports at 1.0534, 11Mar low and key level at 1.0488, 24 Jan year-to-date low, return to which to complete 2014 move from 1.0488 to 1.1301. Consolidative action on oversold near-term studies is seen ahead of final push towards key med-term support at 1.0488. Extended rallies should find strong resistance at previous consolidation floor at 1.0750 zone.

Res: 1.0692; 1.0712; 1.0750; 1.0770
Sup: 1.0618; 1.0600; 1.0534; 1.0488




XAUUSD

Spot gold remains positive overall, with further upside attempts seen in near-term focus. Consolidative action below fresh highs at 1238, where descending daily 100SMA capped rallies for now, is under way. Probe below initial support at 1224, may test strong supports at 1220/18, previous high / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1186/1238 rally, where dips should be ideally contained. However, weakening hourly studies may trigger deeper pullback, as 4-hour indicators are heading south, from oversold zone. Next good supports lay at 1214 and psychological 1200 level, also Fibonacci 38.2% of larger 1142/1238 ascend, reinforced by daily 10/55SMA’s bull-cross, which is required to hold, to keep larger bulls intact. Fresh attempts through 1238, to open 1255, 21 Oct lower top and 1268, 200SMA, in extension.

Res: 1234; 1238; 1244; 1255
Sup: 1220; 1214; 1206; 1200