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ICE US Coffee C Futures - May 25 (KCc5)

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216.35 -12.10    -5.30%
13:23:00 - Delayed Data. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type:  Commodity
Group:  Agriculture
  • Prev. Close: 228.45
  • Open: 229.60
  • Day's Range: 216.05 - 232.35
US Coffee C 216.35 -12.10 -5.30%

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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 6 hours ago
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Maja again confirmed to be ideal top alert indicator. ;)
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MGom MGom
MGom 3 hours ago
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Did you change your mind, Dude ? Based on your comment this morning, including for me to sell my farm and come in sold, you should join in.
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 1 hour ago
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Do you think Brazil's big exports are possible not because of a good harvest but because of the use of stocks? Not long ago, everyone was convincing farmers that the harvest of 24-25 would be excellent. It was prudent to sell off any inventory. Judy, among others, advised that. In addition, other producers had poor harvests. Brazil saves the world. If that was the case then Brazil enters 24-25 with very low stocks and has to save the world again. No. I have not changed my mind. I think the weather has taken a toll on yields and stocks are low.
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Oscar Correa
Oscar Correa 6 hours ago
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Remember today is end of week and end of month. Take it easy ;)
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Rain
Rain 6 hours ago
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does anyone have the link to the USDA report?
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NOTHIG PERSONAL JUST BUSINESS
FAROUT 6 hours ago
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https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/coffee.pdf
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NOTHIG PERSONAL JUST BUSINESS
FAROUT 6 hours ago
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Or just write (usda coffee report)
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NOTHIG PERSONAL JUST BUSINESS
FAROUT 6 hours ago
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Next release June 20
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NOTHIG PERSONAL JUST BUSINESS
FAROUT 6 hours ago
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https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/coffee.pdf
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 7 hours ago
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Don’t fight the USDA and CONAB ;)
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 6 hours ago
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Absolutely and never ! (Learnt hard way long time ago :)). I would risk to say that report did not provide hope or optimism - rather it technically saved market from a squeeze that could happen otherwise :). What means, unless USDA will show big R in Brazil, that problem remains unresolved and Brazil is only hope... We may see an interesting shift: if MG will start facing quality issues with A of a scale, it may start substituting R, decrease A offer and A may catch up with R - normalize ratio a bit :). At least, this is what charts kinda suggest :) (to me). :)
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 6 hours ago
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If problems in Vietnam are real or not - we'll know it very soon.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 6 hours ago
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Short Dude. It is also important that real catalyst is gonna be weather (weather related pests, fungus, etc) not USDA possible reductions if to talk about 5 - 6 levels. :) :) :) And stop-loss is the best sleeping pill !!! :)
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 9 hours ago
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To close the topic: The climate conditions affects directly the maturation period of coffee plantations affecting yield and beverage quality. The quality of coffee beverages is highly correlated with the length of fruit maturation, which is strongly influenced by meteorological elements. ****** This from the study maid in 2018 on modern (at the time :)) cultivars by Brazilian researchers. ******* And a bit more: The complete phenological cycle of coffee tree takes 2 years and is composed of vegetative (first phenological year) and reproductive (second phenological year) phases, six in totality (Camargo and Camargo, 2001).
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 9 hours ago
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Science is stubborn thing. The problem is that nobody never knows exact extent and exact areas as nobody does this investigation :). But 23/24 weather issues are matter of fact, coverage was big, etc. It happened and will be seen soon if science is right and cause will produce some effect. For now KC has to defend 200 level (202 - 205 cluster). It is certain that current reduction to global production (roughly 1mb after all reports published) will become increase :) assuming that Brazil, Ethiopia, Uganda are still not known :). But whatever numbers are thrown - those numbers can't negate the damage that was already done, if science is any guide... :)
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 8 hours ago
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Closing Vietnam topic. Average R production in Vietnam by USDA after last corrections being made: 2015 - 2025* would be 29mb/year. No Growth In 10 Years. Give last corrections back to the bulls :) and it will become 28.7mb/y or so - doesn't change anything at all... Stagnant production, on stagnant area, rising consumption and intercropping or switching to other crops. 29mb as MGom said is a number and at the time Vietnam had real stocks, etc. But within same years consumption grew about 25mb and it was Brazil, who filled the void and expected to continue doing so...
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 7 hours ago
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To clarify a bit more as Vietnam is about R: R --- 22/23 = 27.3mb, 23/24 = 28mb, 24/25* = 27.85mb. Vietnam had R production of roughly 28mb in 2017 :). Only twice within last 10 years Vietnam produced 30mb of R: in 19/20 and 21/22, all other years have been roughly 28mb. May be all will get changed in a couple of years :), but for now 24/25 is projected to be below 2017 :)...
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 7 hours ago
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If USDA would keep its previous numbers re 22/23 and 23/24 , R production would be at 10 years minimum :).
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 7 hours ago
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From 14/15 to 24/25 R production in Brazil grew roughly from 12mb to 24mb***.
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To Mas
To Mas 10 hours ago
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buy the dipp :D
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GC Coffee
GC Coffee 10 hours ago
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pulling the rug
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Your Futuure
Your Futuure 10 hours ago
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Down to 190
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 14 hours ago
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Viriato, first reaction shows that 29mln is not enough or market do not believe in USDA anymore ;)
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 10 hours ago
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to read***
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 10 hours ago
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It will be interesting to see if USDA will adjust Brazil numbers for 22/23 also :).
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 10 hours ago
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MGom. 47mb +23mb domestic = 70mb vs 4.7mb beginning stocks + 66.3mb production = 1mb ending stocks :). Unless USDA will raise 22/23 ending stocks or will increase production for 23/24, Brazil will have 1mb ending paper :) stocks for 23/24 :). I'm consistent with my view :) :) :). You're 100% right about how it was/is/will be but we have to differ adjustment based on some data gathering/evaluation and the one that is done just to make up the numbers. USDA didn't hesitate to show ending stocks of 540kb for 21/22 MY. Being USDA I would increase production for 2mb :) :) :) - in relation to 66mb projected earlier it's a tiny 3%. :)
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 10 hours ago
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If current GSM cycle will continue in a traditional way, next stage is gonna be cooling and it should start practically tomorrow :), as recent temp anomalies point to a cyclical peak in heat waves (solar peak 25 is in the making), etc. Unlike NH (US and EU), there is almost zero data about that period (1645-1715), covering Brazil. But some researches have been done (trees, rocks, caves, etc) and their results point that average temp in Brazil was also lower during that time. So, it can be reasonably expected that more or less the same will happen now and it will bring some relief to SH coffee producers. But at the same time it will bring new challenges related with rains, pests, fungus, etc as weather pattern most likely will be changed... In relation to MG and SP it may bring more pronounced frosts and droughts, besides frost area may get a bit wider than currently and temps a bit lower and for a bit longer. Strong La Ninas will have more significant effect.
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MGom MGom
MGom 8 hours ago
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100%, Viriato, the report is there, contesting it may be laudable, but the objections need to be publicized to the same extent as the USDA reports, a difficult task. Just like the Funds theory, if you can't go against them, it's best to join them, better for right trade
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Doiglas Jacobson
Doiglas Jacobson 18 hours ago
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Grains now getting mear planted in midwest. Now turning to trading weather forcasts for price movements. No heat forcast and no absense of rain. Would stay away from long corn or soybeans.
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