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ICE US Coffee C Futures - Dec 24 (KCc3)

ICE
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KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
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218.20
-12.35(-5.36%)
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US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Maja again confirmed to be ideal top alert indicator. ;)
Did you change your mind, Dude ? Based on your comment this morning, including for me to sell my farm and come in sold, you should join in.
Do you think Brazil's big exports are possible not because of a good harvest but because of the use of stocks? Not long ago, everyone was convincing farmers that the harvest of 24-25 would be excellent. It was prudent to sell off any inventory. Judy, among others, advised that. In addition, other producers had poor harvests. Brazil saves the world. If that was the case then Brazil enters 24-25 with very low stocks and has to save the world again. No. I have not changed my mind. I think the weather has taken a toll on yields and stocks are low.
Remember today is end of week and end of month. Take it easy ;)
does anyone have the link to the USDA report?
Or just write (usda coffee report)
Next release June 20
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/coffee.pdf
Don’t fight the USDA and CONAB ;)
Absolutely and never ! (Learnt hard way long time ago :)). I would risk to say that report did not provide hope or optimism - rather it technically saved market from a squeeze that could happen otherwise :). What means, unless USDA will show big R in Brazil, that problem remains unresolved and Brazil is only hope... We may see an interesting shift: if MG will start facing quality issues with A of a scale, it may start substituting R, decrease A offer and A may catch up with R - normalize ratio a bit :). At least, this is what charts kinda suggest :) (to me). :)
If problems in Vietnam are real or not - we'll know it very soon.
Short Dude. It is also important that real catalyst is gonna be weather (weather related pests, fungus, etc) not USDA possible reductions if to talk about 5 - 6 levels. :) :) :) And stop-loss is the best sleeping pill !!! :)
To close the topic: The climate conditions affects directly the maturation period of coffee plantations affecting yield and beverage quality. The quality of coffee beverages is highly correlated with the length of fruit maturation, which is strongly influenced by meteorological elements. ****** This from the study maid in 2018 on modern (at the time :)) cultivars by Brazilian researchers. ******* And a bit more: The complete phenological cycle of coffee tree takes 2 years and is composed of vegetative (first phenological year) and reproductive (second phenological year) phases, six in totality (Camargo and Camargo, 2001).
To clarify a bit more as Vietnam is about R: R --- 22/23 = 27.3mb, 23/24 = 28mb, 24/25* = 27.85mb. Vietnam had R production of roughly 28mb in 2017 :). Only twice within last 10 years Vietnam produced 30mb of R: in 19/20 and 21/22, all other years have been roughly 28mb. May be all will get changed in a couple of years :), but for now 24/25 is projected to be below 2017 :)...
If USDA would keep its previous numbers re 22/23 and 23/24 , R production would be at 10 years minimum :).
From 14/15 to 24/25 R production in Brazil grew roughly from 12mb to 24mb***.
buy the dipp :D
pulling the rug
Down to 190
Viriato, first reaction shows that 29mln is not enough or market do not believe in USDA anymore ;)
MGom. 47mb +23mb domestic = 70mb vs 4.7mb beginning stocks + 66.3mb production = 1mb ending stocks :). Unless USDA will raise 22/23 ending stocks or will increase production for 23/24, Brazil will have 1mb ending paper :) stocks for 23/24 :). I'm consistent with my view :) :) :). You're 100% right about how it was/is/will be but we have to differ adjustment based on some data gathering/evaluation and the one that is done just to make up the numbers. USDA didn't hesitate to show ending stocks of 540kb for 21/22 MY. Being USDA I would increase production for 2mb :) :) :) - in relation to 66mb projected earlier it's a tiny 3%. :)
If current GSM cycle will continue in a traditional way, next stage is gonna be cooling and it should start practically tomorrow :), as recent temp anomalies point to a cyclical peak in heat waves (solar peak 25 is in the making), etc. Unlike NH (US and EU), there is almost zero data about that period (1645-1715), covering Brazil. But some researches have been done (trees, rocks, caves, etc) and their results point that average temp in Brazil was also lower during that time. So, it can be reasonably expected that more or less the same will happen now and it will bring some relief to SH coffee producers. But at the same time it will bring new challenges related with rains, pests, fungus, etc as weather pattern most likely will be changed... In relation to MG and SP it may bring more pronounced frosts and droughts, besides frost area may get a bit wider than currently and temps a bit lower and for a bit longer. Strong La Ninas will have more significant effect.
100%, Viriato, the report is there, contesting it may be laudable, but the objections need to be publicized to the same extent as the USDA reports, a difficult task. Just like the Funds theory, if you can't go against them, it's best to join them, better for right trade
Grains now getting mear planted in midwest. Now turning to trading weather forcasts for price movements. No heat forcast and no absense of rain. Would stay away from long corn or soybeans.
Sorry weather markets.
Whether markets in grains and coffee can be gigantic.
Accuweather, current forcast for Belo Horizonte, Mino Gerias Brazil, zero rain for next 5 weeks thru July 6. If this forcast holds, possible huge extension of thos rally in coffee futures.
This is the dry season, there may be no rain until the end of September and nothing will happen.
Take profits on longs near 2.45 area???
Minas Gerias looks dry going forward for a few weeks or more in Brazil.
The rains of the past few weeks were great for the plants, and temperatures also dropped. It will be great for the quality of the grains to have more than a month without rain. In MG, rain, harvest and cold do not mix.
There has only been one weekend with rain in recent weeks. This last one. Anything more?
*last week, just over 30 millimeters of rain.
They are trading low rainfall in Minas Gerias coffee growing area and Robusta crop declines in Vietnam. This will go high as it is dry.
Surprise Vietnam by USDA : 23/24 = 29.1 Mill bags and 24/25 = 29.0 Mill bags ? lot of coffee !
Bet your farm and go short then! 😁
what number did you expect for Vietnam? 29? unlikely, I didn't imagine.
Short Dude. The basis USDA used to make an additional reduction for 22/23MY in Nov 2023 report: In addition, Post lowered MY 2022/23 coffee production to 27.2 million bags green bean equivalent (GBE) due to unfavorable weather conditions leading to low cherry survival rates and farmers shifting production to more profitable fruit trees.
What changed ? 1) weather conditions back then became more favorable due to something ? 2) Cherry survival rate got better for a period described after year passed ? 3) Farmers, shifting production to more profitable crops had to mean they did it some time BEFORE 22/23 harvest :) - so, they actually didn't ? USDA is doing a huge job without any doubts and my point is not to question all of their numbers, etc... But as we may see, confusions happen... Usually, there are more confusions when basis gets more complicated :) - when weather is perfect, ferts are cheap, all is uniformed, etc - it is clear that record may be in the cards, figure may be this or that, but the fact itself is easy to calculate :). But now it's that time...
now it's not that time ****
As you said, at the time of writing the report assumes that the weather will be neutral for the rest of the season. Since October, farmers have not abandoned the production of other crops in favor of coffee, while the weather has not been neutral, but very unfavorable. So why the upward adjustment?
That's a fancy report indeed :): High global coffee prices have helped support Vietnam’s coffee industry despite several years of adverse weather. Farmers are using irrigation and intercropping to mitigate the effects of draught and high temperatures. This has helped slow the decline in coffee production in Vietnam. As a result, post raised estimated production for MY2022/23 and MY2023/24. Thus: 1) 24/25 projected to be of 29mb, of which R to be 27.85mb, A to be 1.15mb; 2) 23/24 raised to 29.1mb from 27.5mb (+1.6mb); 3) 22/23 raised to 28.3mb (+1.1mb); 4) consumption grew r4.9% first quarter 2024; 5) projected average consumption growth roughly 4%.
I like the increase in consumption, though.
Why I think that confusion (which in my view is in the report) matters ? Because it will add more trust to other sources. A lot of players will be waiting for Vietnam's final figures now to absorb... When the one motivates reduction by recorded weather issues, it is clear that rarely every farm was affected and to the same extent so, some pessimism may be overstretched and it is fully understandable. But it is basis for reduction/raise what matters the most - how solid and sound it is (seems to be) in relation to verifiable data... Re consumption - as we spoke earlier, it's all open data, confirmations available from different sources, etc...
Short Dude Conspiracy theory would imply that they're trying to avoid panic :). But whatever it was - they didn't show any R break through for 24/25. Tomorrow is gonna be the day :) !
At some point, demand for price will decrease and nothing will have connections except the classic economic lawoffer/demand
Can you please explain more. I am not sure I understood you.
We have to consider 300+ minimum it has been booked already but I think we could see 400 even, there are many factors driving prices, such as weather, stock, and consumptions (china) I wish to see the price going down but I don't think this will happen at least this year.
But if USDA somehow :) will revise Vietnam and Inmet will point to a frost possibility during weekend, Friday may be entertaining ! :)
Delfim Moreira recorded -2.2C, Campos do Jordao ----- +1.1C :).
Of course everybody knows that could be :) frost right after month(s) of high temps means double trouble :) :) :) for the tree .
Maja is levitating and talking about 5, correction is due ;)
I may be wrong of course like anybody, but personally, I feel that level of confusion grows day by day. 23/24 season is indeed unique and :) :) :) uniform at the same time in terms of basis of the problem and the coverage.
Short Dude. If the issue will be proven real, next 2025 OFF Brazilian crop (possibly already compromised a tiny bit:)) will fall on for sure :) compromised a bit crops from some other origins :). And 2026 then will be viewed as turning point ... ( And Maja will get unobstructed love and support ! :)) Here comes JG: 2025/26 prospects are questionable out of the starting gate. :)
As MGom once said, at critical moments perception is what matters the most ! As narration is part of what forms perception, narration kinda doesn't point to any records anymore... (USDA aside still)
I guess people will start mixing coffee with chickpeas in a fine grind roasted coffee like they used to do it before...
Why? Coffee is cheap. How much does it cost to make one drink?
Pennies... A specially if at home and on relative basis, vs other drinks... USDA still keeps remaining reports to be published in May. If there are gonna be no reports tomorrow, Friday will be interesting :): weekly close, monthly close, remaining reports (BRL, Vietnam, Uganda, etc)...
40 cups from 1 Lb. @ $20 Lb. = .25c If going cheap, pennies. Anyhow, who drinks trashy coffee?
238
250. 1H bullish pennant ;)
And 5h cup and handle :):):)
250. Bullish pennant 1H 😁
By Climatempo fresh and cold air :) will attempt to enter some coffee areas in MG in the end of the week. No reports today...
100%. Media need clicks :), but sooner or later heat waves will be done and gone. It may be around the corner... (The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said that Vietnam’s coffee output in the 2023–2024 crop year is estimated to decrease by 20% compared to the previous crop year, to 1.47 million tonnes, the lowest in four years, putting pressure on Robusta supply in the world market. Over the past years, coffee prices were low, prompting many farmers to gradually switch to higher value crops. However, this year’s coffee prices are experiencing a record high, and it’s expected to be an opportunity to motivate farmers to restore coffee growing area. - the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam) Wednesday, May 29, 2024 10:43
Pozo Hondo wise (Paraguay), it worth of attention how fast it goes from highest to lowest as the speed of the shift influences climate patterns (global and local) a lot...
Inmet joins Climatempo for Sul of SDM :).
...
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