Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Even though it’s hard for me to imagine some kind of “shock event” from the pre-open jobs report this Friday, I look forward to seeing how the market – – particularly the...

The previous article discussed the potential ramifications related to policy actions that China and Japan might take. These large U.S. Treasury bondholders could temporarily upset the Treasury market,...

The US corporate bond market is sending a reassuring signal to stock investors that financing fundamentals remain supportive. Spreads of investment grade (Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond...

The Fed's minutes for their latest meeting held in July showed the committee's interest in raising interest rates further due to upside risks to inflation that are already well above their target...

“China, Japan, inflation, deficits, and QT, oh my!” – The chant of bond traders watching yields creep higher.Despite the highest yields in 15 years, some bearish bond traders think...

The last time you could lock in a real (inflation-adjusted) yield with inflation-adjusted Treasuries (TIPS), the world was still cleaning up the mess from the financial crisis. A lot has changed since...

For much of the year, the bond market has been embracing expectations that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases have peaked or were about to peak. The underlying logic centered on the...

The 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade at a level well above CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value estimate, but the gap suggests that further increases in the benchmark rate are facing...

Global bonds rocked by Bank of Japan changes, Fitch downgrade, and Fed's outlook. Long-term bond market sees rare turbulence. Investors split: Buffett and Musk optimistic, Ackman bearish. A triple...

Interest rates continue climbing this year, but that hasn’t stopped bonds from rallying in 2023 when measured in total-return terms. The main exception is long-dated US Treasuries. Otherwise,...

Interest rates remain in the spotlight, with investors watching every economic data release and wondering when the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates.Well, one way to gauge this environment is to...

The future’s still uncertain, of course, and so all forecasts should be viewed cautiously. For perspective, let’s start with the one thing we know is true: We’re closer to the peak...

Our view of the attractiveness of bonds can be honed into an elevator pitch. It essentially boils down to a straightforward question – Is this time different?Have the forty-year pre-pandemic...

Did you know that 2022 was the WORST year for US Treasuries in American history?The benchmark 10-year Treasury fell nearly 18%, and the United States 30-Year Treasury collapsed by over 39%. Many other...