Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Investment volatility remained elevated this year. One can point to any number of culprits. My preferred cause has been interest rate volatility. I’ve been cautious as the Federal Reserve (Fed)...

By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic GarveyWhile the market is clearly eyeing a change in the rate cycle, 10-year UST yields are still fighting a battle along the 4.5% area, with the deficit-induced...

The 10-year US government bond yield was hovering around 3.75% when we first wrote about it in mid-February. Elliott Wave analysis led us to conclude that there was quite a good chance of it reaching...

Today’s “fair value” estimate of the US 10-year Treasury yield continues to suggest that the current market rate is unusually lofty and that the spread will soon narrow....

By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin SchroederHow convinced are we that the Fed has peaked? You can never be 100% sure on this, but the odds firmly favor the view that they’re done. That places...

Current yields for the major asset classes edged higher recently, based on a set of proxy ETFs through the close of trading on Monday, Nov. 13.The average yield for global risk assets ticked up to...

US Treasury yields soared after Moody's (NYSE:MCO) switched to a negative outlook for the United States, hammering home the news that the BRICS alliance has officially surpassed the G7 economies. Make...

As I’ve mentioned in previous posts and webinars, the bond market is probably the least understood of the four capital markets. Most people’s eyes glaze over whenever it is mentioned....

By Padhraic GarveyAs we hold above 4.5% for the US 10-year, the immediate issue is 10-year and 30-year auctions. Beyond that into next week, prepare for a big drop in US headline inflation. Then...

Is the bond bear market finally over? That is the question everyone is asking now that bond prices rallied sharply following the November FOMC policy meeting. As noted earlier: “On Wednesday,...

Here’s the issue with all of the social media and the volumes of research on the bond markets: it’s not just whether interest rates (yields) are rising or falling, the shape of the...

By Padhraic Garvey and Benjamin SchroederThe Rally In Long-End Rates Extended With the Curve Flattening AcceleratingOverall, we have now seen a drop of close to 30bp in 10-Year and longer yields over...

The big question everyone is asking today (and yesterday) is "Is the bottom in the bond market?"So far, following the FOMC decision, the market seems to think so. And following the jobs report...

The leaders of the European Union met last week to discuss how to rearrange the deck chairs on their political Titanic. While the decisions to continue to monetarily support Ukraine and now Israel...