Divided Bosnians vote with little hope of change

By Daria Sito-Sucic

SARAJEVO (Reuters) - Bosnians voted for national, regional and local representatives on Sunday in elections dominated by still-unresolved issues of identity and statehood after almost 20 years of peace, and with scant prospect of any genuine change.

Many Bosnians had hoped civil unrest in February might generate enough momentum to oust the political elite, widely seen as corrupt and incapable of reforming a complex system of ethnic power-sharing that ended a 1992-95 war but which has signally failed to steer the Balkan nation closer to Europe.

However, devastating floods in May helped drown out such hopes and, with few new faces on the ballot papers for the six layers of government due to be elected, political analysts now predict more of the usual policy paralysis and neglect of the bread-and-butter issues that matter to ordinary Bosnians.

"I didn't vote for anyone; they're all the same. I just came to cast an empty ballot so they can't misuse it," said Sarajevo pensioner Saima Alajbegovic, shortly after polling stations opened at 7 a.m. (0500 GMT).

Anger over corruption and unemployment was at the heart of the unprecedented popular unrest in February, when protests over factory closures turned violent and spread to several cities, including the capital Sarajevo.

But during the election campaign calls for greater focus on jobs, red tape and good governance have mostly gone unheeded.

Instead, stark differences between rival ethnic groups over Bosnia's future were again on prominent display. Bosnia's Orthodox Christian Serb leaders want to secede, the Catholic Croats want a separate entity within Bosnia and the Muslim Bosniaks still cling to the vision of a strong unified state.

"Nobody is really trying to come up with a common agenda that can appeal to that critical mass of citizens who are very dissatisfied with the way the country works," said Kurt Bassuener, senior associate at the Democratization Policy Council, a think-tank.

Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, emboldened by a pro-Russian separatist revolt in eastern Ukraine, has grown louder in his calls for Bosnia's dissolution. Western diplomats say they are unsure of his true intentions.

But Bakir Izetbegovic, bidding for a new term as the Bosniak member of Bosnia's tripartite presidency - Serbs and Croats also each have a representative - is vowing to hold the country together.

"Our priorities ... are the integrity of the country and to prevent the processes of disintegration," he said during campaigning.

COMPLEX ARRANGEMENTS

Under its U.S.-brokered postwar settlement, Bosnia is split into two autonomous regions joined by a weak central government, power split along ethnic lines in a highly decentralized and costly system that frequently paralyses decision-making.

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Government jobs are reserved for the three main ethnic groups. Limited Western efforts to encourage reform have run into the sand.

On Sunday, close to 3.3 million voters will choose between candidates for 518 posts across six layers of government, including the three-person presidency, the national parliament, the two regional parliaments, 10 cantonal assemblies and another in the 'neutral' district of Brcko.

With no clear frontrunners, the vote looks like being split between many players, raising the prospect of long delays in forming governments at the various levels.

That will worsen Bosnia's economic outlook, already hit by the May floods which inflicted damage totaling about 2 billion euros. Some analysts see a possible repeat of the February unrest, only worse.

"I wish there'd be some radical change ... across the country, but I doubt it, because people here still vote according to national patterns, instead of choosing whom they think is best," said economist Miroslav Dardarevic.

The biggest election upset may come in the Serb Republic, where a coalition of opposition parties hopes to end Dodik's eight years in power. Few of his rivals, however, have much more love for Bosnia.

"If the opposition wins in Republika Srpska (Serb Republic), changes would come in at least the form of political vocabulary," said political analyst Djordje Vukovic.

"I see it only as a change of rhetoric because the national themes are still untouchable."