Earnings call transcript: Protector Forsikring Q2 2025 sees strong EPS, stock surges

Protector Forsikring delivered a robust performance in the second quarter of 2025, reporting earnings per share (EPS) of 8.7, significantly surpassing market expectations. The company's share price reacted positively, climbing 7.11% in pre-market trading following the release. According to InvestingPro reporting impressive returns over the last decade and three analysts recently revising their earnings expectations upward for the upcoming period.

Executive Commentary

• "It is all of those 650 people who have created 84.9% combined ratio," stated the CEO, emphasizing the team's contribution to the company's success.
• "We are different. We are in different phases in different countries," the CEO added, highlighting the company's tailored approach to market entry and expansion.

Risks and Challenges

• Softening insurance market, especially in property and motor segments.
• Limited market activity in Norway could affect growth prospects.
• Claims inflation remains a concern, necessitating continuous price adjustments.
• Potential challenges in entering new markets, such as France.
• Macroeconomic pressures could impact overall market conditions.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the potential growth in France and the stability of Denmark's combined ratio. The company anticipates limited growth in France for H2 2025, with a significant market entry planned for early 2026. In Denmark, the combined ratio is expected to stabilize following the exit from the workers' compensation book.

Full transcript - Protector Forsikring ASA (PROT) Q2 2025:

CEO/Management Representative, Protector: Hello and welcome to the Second Quarter twenty twenty five Presentation of Results for Protector for Sikkling. We have started the day, as always, with the employees, in Protector, who are, the ones who have delivered the results. And we have obviously discussed our targets, profitable growth and data as currency, the status of where we are and how we understand those targets and results. But we have also talked about our culture. And the important thing that we are focusing on is to understand our culture and the statements, our values and our targets in the context of that we have grown as a company.

So we are different. We are in different phases in different countries and in different areas of the business. But also that the world around us is changing. So we need to redefine and reunderstand what it means to be credible in the different roles around and invest time in really continuing developing that culture in the company. Because as I said, it is all of those six fifty people who have created 84.9% combined ratio in the second quarter and a growth of 16% in local currencies.

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And together with the investment result, that has become 8.7 per share. Other highlights in the quarter is the rating that we have released previously. So that is old news. But there are some effects of it. We have previously said that we get access to enough risks and enough volume without an A rating, but the upgrade gives us access to some more business and in particular in some of the newer segments that we are looking into in The U.

K. And potentially also in France. In addition to that, the some of the clients who have not come our way and not had a very strict requirement on rating, they don't really have an excuse anymore. So but mostly, this is about that we get what we think we deserve over time. And that in the larger markets, there are some clients who have assets that are financed by banks who require A rated insurance companies.

So then such as the real estate market in The U. K. And then we get access to larger parts of that real estate market. In addition to that, in The U. Satisfaction Index, which is the quality defined together with brokers made into questions.

And so the results from this Broker Satisfaction Index is a snapshot of the perceived quality that we deliver to the brokers. We have received that only a couple of days ago. We don't have all the details yet, but it is a very strong result with the brokers ranking Protector ahead of the competition for the eighth year in a row, but also with an increasing distance, in particular to the major players who have most of the volume that we see as attractive. The important thing about the survey is to understand, so get the details and then use that in the dialogue with the brokers in order to find out where we should prioritize to improve what we do. And then the dividend distribution area, I'll come back to when I go into the capital position later on in the presentation.

I as always, I forget to do what I'm told to do. So Armen always tells me to say that you or remind you that you have to ask questions during the presentation. There is a lag on what we do. So it's very good if we have those questions and can take them right away at the end of the presentation. So please do that if you have any questions.

On the volume side, the second quarter is a lot about April 1 in The U. K. And April 1 in public sector U. K. We've already said what that result was when we presented the quarter one figures.

And something has obviously happened after that. And it is slightly stronger than what the result was on April 1. For The U. K. In particular, we did say in quarter one that the volume was slightly lower than what the underlying reality was due to change of inception dates from quarter one to quarter two and quarter three.

So some of that has come in, in quarter two, obviously. And that increases the volume and is more of a technicality. It's not it didn't belong to quarter two previously. So that's not growth in that sense. That's a small part of it.

We said that it was GBP 3,800,000.0 that had moved and twothree of that has moved to quarter two. So then you can figure it out yourself. Other than that, in The U. K. Business, we have gained some momentum in the mid market, the smaller clients.

We have had the focus on larger clients from the beginning in Commercial Sector U. K. And then we have set up an initiative on the smaller clients. We've gained some momentum there. And we still have a strong renewal situation in The U.

K. In spite of a continuous softening market, which we have talked about before. And there is no change in that. It continues to soften, particular on the property side, but also on motor and liability. In the Nordic countries, there is some volatility with fairly small volumes for the quarter, but in the growth.

But it is very strong in Denmark due to some momentum on new sales, in particular, on the Motor side, done with the same methodology as we have done in Sweden for many years and that we use in the company. So analytical fact based approach. So it's good to see that the market is more rational on the motor side in Denmark, but obviously, a very small quarter and small numbers. And then in Sweden, we have good renewals and some new sales gaining some momentum there as well with, in particular, the motor market continuing to look fairly rational, whereas the property market, we've even lost some of our existing clients. So we have some churn on the property side due to what at least we deem to be irrational pricing.

In Norway, there has been very little volume out in the market, but we have strong renewals, so very low churn in the quarter. So on the volume side, it is a continuous price increase game portfolio to counter claims inflation. And we have low churn giving and that gives us a high renewal rate as you can see. The most important always is about the profitability and the claims development. And that is a strong result for quarter two and the first half year.

And if you adjust for large losses and runoff and compare the two, the underlying realities are stronger than what they were in 'twenty four. So there is an improvement there of particular elements in the result, you can see that on The U. K. Result here, the gross figures are very different from the net figures, and that has to do with very few number of large claims from previous years that have been adjusted up on the liability side. So there is a runoff loss where the majority is with reinsurers and not for our own account.

And then on the net side, you see an improvement on The U. K. Side. And that is in spite of that the large losses come from U. K.

And Norway in the quarter. When so Sweden and Denmark have no or very little large losses. And when it comes to the runoff situation, that is in all countries except for Denmark. And on the product side, it comes mainly from the property. And on motor, we have some reserve losses.

And motor is, in general, still the product where we have some need for price increases above inflation or corrections. And that is, in particular, in Norway and The U. K, where there are two different situations. In Norway, there is a frequency development and a higher claims inflation than the rest of the countries, which you have seen from our some of our competitors as well. So you need to do more price increases in the Norwegian market.

And in The U. K, it is about a lag from previously in longer contracts that we wrote a while back. So it takes some time to get into where we want to be there. If we look at the historical picture on large loss and runoff, it is important, I think, for me to say that even though the period we show here, which is IFRS numbers, so it's not a coincidental period, it's what we have restated or delivered on IFRS standard, is at 6% large losses. It's not that's not a normalized situation necessarily.

So I would say that in this period, we have had lower than a normalized large loss share. If this continues for a very long time, then you can come back and ask me that question again. I would say it is higher than what you see here. And on the runoff side, I think it shows that best estimate is what we are looking at. And you can see that even though there is volatility between the quarter, and that is absolutely true when we look at country by country overview.

And the only thing I haven't commented on as per normal on the profitability side is the cost. And you can see the cost here, and it is increasing from relative to NOK24 million. But there are some elements that you could argue are one off. So we have talked about a long term bonus scheme, which is connected to the share price, and the share price has increased a lot. And for both quarter two and the first half year, if you adjust for that, you get close to the figure in '24.

So it's a very similar cost ratio excluding of commission. You also see some noise on the commission side where, in particular, Norway has a much lower commission, which is commission to agents where we have agent agreements. And that's a technicality from quarter two, which we mentioned then. But the running rate is more correct with the figure from '25, so the figure we have now. And in U.

Decreasing. That's a bit it's about the product mix there and segment mix. There are different commission levels in different products and segments depending on how much the broker can take, but also how much work they do. So that's what see there. And commenting on the French business, it's obviously interesting to see that it's possible to show some black figures in a quarter in France.

But as you understand, this is just coincidental and says nothing about what's going on other than that we have had not had a lot of large losses or any large losses in the French business. But this will be volatile. We don't know anything about that business other than that we have done our underwriting at what we think will be profitable levels. But the claims development, the cost situation is absolutely not critical mass. And let's follow the French profitability now, but not conclude on anything until we have some volume out in 2026, I would say.

So that's the totality for the countries. And I have mentioned the Broker Satisfaction Index earlier and in the introduction. The numbers are here. So you can see the increase of four points from last year's survey. And we always say that the more interaction we have with the brokers, the in a new country, the bigger the probability of they will find some mistakes and we will make mistakes.

But it seems like the U. K. Team has been concerned enough and looked at and really prioritized what matters with the brokers in The U. K. And I think that when we are looking at new segments and subsegments in The U.

K. Market, it is very important to continue to have this type of feedback with the brokers so that we can understand where we can improve. And position, of course, will help us. The smaller clients that I mentioned earlier, they the brokers have a larger placing power for those than for the larger clients, where the client is in the decision process to a larger extent. So if the brokers are satisfied and more efficient when they work with Protector than the other ones, it is a bigger chance that we will both see volume and also win volume.

On the investment side, we have a quarter that, in a way, looks a bit boring with a good return, both absolute and relative. But there has been a lot of volatility in the beginning of the quarter. So this lies a little bit. But I think the important elements here is on the running yield. It is down.

That is due to interest rate changes because we have some spread increase, and that is due to some increase in the high risk side, where most of that increase is from the volatility in the market where there were that we saw. So that's approximately twothree of it. Some bond funds, some single high yield papers where we saw that opportunity in the turbulence. And then the rest of it is secured real estate, which is classified in that. So the assets under management grow by 9% since end of quarter one.

And the equity side has delivered, yes, good absolute relative return. And there is has been some changes in that portfolio. But end of quarter, end of quarter, not a lot of cash flow lot of quarter. Quarter. And And particular to point on here, and we've we have a been through of the key figures.

So on the capital position, what happens during this quarter is that the capital increases is with profit for the quarter. And then there is a dividend there that is subtracted. But on the requirement side, it is about insurance growth and then growth of the investment portfolio and some increase in risk on the bond side. And then there are some currency effects that were on the positive side or reducing the requirement in quarter one, where the Norwegian kroner was increasing and then the opposite in quarter two. And the composition of both capital and risks is fairly similar relatively from earlier.

So then it is back to why these results are what they are. Of have

Analyst: a a a lot couple lot of of questions. Questions. And Can you we grow more in France in the second half year of 'twenty five than you did in Q2? Or is all about first of Jan 'twenty six?

CEO/Management Representative, Protector: Well, our data, which we have collected a lot of, shows that it basically is all about January 1. But what we're learning is that there are some opportunities in the French market between January 1. And so there are some that change their inception date or something happening in the market. And then there are some clients that obviously we don't have the data for from before. So there will be some growth in the French market, most likely more so on the commercial side than on public, which is a little bit different from what we thought before.

It doesn't necessarily represent how the market works, but it's that's the short term. But we've also lost some opportunities that we have looked at in the French market in quarter or four, quarter three. So amongst them, a large one where we see that there is it's not irrational competition, but there is competition. And we did not we had the opportunity to win, but we stopped because we came too far down on the margin. So there you may see some growth in the third and fourth quarter.

But the absolute large one is first of January. That's what we should focus on. And we know that there is a large pipeline and many opportunities for January 1. What comes out of it is a different question because I think we have any accurate view on the competitive situation in France at the moment.

Analyst: Denmark, will you expect more stable combined ratios when workers' compensation is out of the books?

CEO/Management Representative, Protector: Yes. It is also this quarter some reserve losses from the workers' comp book. And so you will see more stable combined ratios.

Analyst: And then underlying claims ratio in Sweden, it's flat year over year. Do you think that could improve going forward?

CEO/Management Representative, Protector: I think that it is strong profitability in the Swedish book, and we have good processes for both renewals and new sales. I would with growth, I would expect it to slightly increase because our long term target on combined ratio is higher than what we are at, at the moment. So I would expect that to increase somewhat in a situation where we grow more, and then it could improve if we don't grow so much.

Analyst: Thank you. There's no further questions.

CEO/Management Representative, Protector: Thank you for listening in and for the questions. And with that, at least for the ones who are watching now, I wish you a great summer. Thank you.

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