Investing.com
Published May 27, 2025 07:58PM ET
Goodman Group, with a substantial market capitalization of $42.76 billion, reported its Q4 2024 earnings, showcasing a robust financial performance and strategic focus on logistics and data center developments. The company forecasts a 9% growth in operating EPS for FY 2025, with an expected operating profit exceeding $2.2 billion. The company's impressive 108.61% revenue growth and strong financial health score of 2.75 (rated GOOD by InvestingPro ) underscore its solid market position despite uncertain economic conditions.
Goodman Group demonstrated strong performance in Q4 2024, with significant developments in logistics and data centers across key global markets. The company continues to capitalize on high-demand urban locations, maintaining high occupancy rates and benefiting from positive rental reversions. The strategic focus on infrastructure and power connections supports its competitive edge in high barrier-to-entry markets.
Goodman Group's guidance for FY 2025 includes a 9% growth in operating EPS, with substantial data center developments anticipated through June 2026. The company targets further development starts in late 2026 and early 2027, with a focus on mechanization and automation in logistics. Yield expectations for data centers and industrial developments remain promising.
CEO Greg Goodman highlighted the strategic importance of capital in the industry, emphasizing plans to build into 2026 and the transformative potential of robotics in logistics. He stated, "Capital remains a key barrier to entry in this industry," and projected a future where "there won't be anyone in our warehouses... it's all robotics with a bunch of engineers."
During the earnings call, analysts inquired about capital partnerships amid global economic uncertainty. Goodman Group's flexible data center development strategies and potential for single or multiple customer configurations were also discussed. The company emphasized its cautious approach to capital partnerships and ongoing exploration of site acquisitions in the US.
Conference Operator: Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Goodman's Group Q3 FY 'twenty five Operational Update. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you need to press 11 on your telephone.
You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press 11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Chief Executive Officer, Greg Goodman, CEO. Please go ahead.
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: Thank you very much, and good morning, everyone, on the call today. Goodman has had a strong quarter. Our logistics customers increased need for our productivity, automation and mechanization continues to support long term demand in our locations around the world. However, uncertain economic and trade conditions are delaying customer decisions. In the data center space, rising demand for cloud and AI services is contributing to growing data center ecosystems in metro areas close to end users where the majority of our sites are located.
The environment, however, is producing valuable opportunities for those with patient, long term capital. We're using this time to take advantage of long term regeneration opportunities, and our teams around the world are reviewing and are in due diligence on a number of these sites that could potentially serve as high value logistics, data centres or due purpose developments in future periods. Our recent purchase of a second land parcel in Luton in The UK is one such opportunity. The substantial size and scale of the brownfield sites will see us invest significantly in building world class infrastructure, including industrial and data center complexes. And as a result of the urban locations we operate in and the limited supply in many of these markets, our occupancy remains high and we're seeing positive rental reversion.
Valuations are also positive with some cap rate tightening recorded during the quarter. Our total portfolio now stands at 86,000,000,000 More than half our $13,700,000,000 development work in progress is in data centers, and we're making steady progress against the 0.5 gigawatt of projects we expect to have underway by June 2026. These developments span eight metro areas across North America, Continental Europe, Japan, Australia and Hong Kong. Our focus is firmly on execution, and we continue to advance detailed infrastructure works on these sites, including demolition, power connections, substation installations, procurement of long lead equipment for these projects, along with above ground construction already underway at LX-one and HK-ten. These all help to reduce time to market and provide customers certainty on delivery and, importantly, timing.
The secured portion of our five gig global power bank has increased to 2.7 gigawatts, and we have been building out the delivery team making significant hires during the quarter, particularly in the operational space. Capital remains a key barrier to entry in this industry. However, the group's liquidity of over $6,000,000,000 provides a strong base to execute our program. Our long term capital needs continue to evolve with our operations. We're in the process of transferring completed data centre projects into data centre partnerships in Continental Europe and Japan and continue to deliver and actively rotate our capital to fund sustainable earnings over time.
Goodman has always worked to unlock the highest and best use of our sites around the world. We continue to optimise the long term value of our assets through strategic planning outcomes, Regenerating sites is providing future development and growth opportunities in addition to logistics and data centers. And the group is making progress towards monetization of residential sites, in Australia. Development activities are forecast to continue to provide attractive margins. We expect supply constraints in our locations to support rental growth over time and maintain high occupancy in logistics and support leasing for data centers in the near term.
Hyperscaler CapEx programs are escalating and accelerating, and Goodman is well positioned to benefit from this. With access to power on existing sites and a proven track record in delivering complex infrastructure developments. Substantial data center development commencements are expected to be reflected in work in progress through to June 2026. And just in closing, the Goodman team is focused on executing our significant opportunity set. We reiterate our forecast FY 'twenty '5 operating EPS growth of 9%, which equates to over $2,200,000,000 operating profit.
I thank you and now take questions.
Conference Operator: Thank Your line is now open.
Chan, Analyst: Hi. Good morning, guys. Hey, Greg. You you opened with a comment about uncertain economic and trade conditions delaying customer decisions. Are you seeing these uncertain economic decisions impacting Capital Partners' decisions as well?
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: Chan, look, won't be a big surprise that everyone's being very careful about what they do around the world until there's a clearer view on what the trade situations look like. So, I think you could extrapolate from what I've said today that yes, I think customers are pausing and they're watching what they're doing and they're being very careful about what they are doing. Customers are doing things though and looking through the haze, if you will, but more quietly. What that has done though is developers have pulled the handbrake up pretty well everywhere in the world, which is giving us the opportunity, which I talked about in my presentation in regard to getting some big regenerative sites that we haven't been able to sort of get at a reasonable price for a long time. So, we're using that as an opportunity on that side of the equation.
But I think on the capital side, we are closing partnerships and capital at the moment, but you just need to allow more time as people absorb what is going on around the world and sort of get adjusted to the new reality. How long that may be, we'll wait and see. But, yeah, things are taking longer, and we've adjusted our program towards that.
Chan, Analyst: Right. So so whatever you were doing in in in The US, I recall as part of the GNAP restructure, you had planned to do a few things there. I I know the largest partnership was one of them, but you had stuff on balance sheet that you were gonna vend into the the second fund. I assume that hasn't closed yet, on the back of your comments today, there might be some delays there.
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: No, look, we're just progressing along in a sensible fashion. We think actually in The US at the moment, and we are looking at a number of site acquisitions there at the moment exhibits very, very good value and effectively we're taking advantage of that on the buy side, but we're still progressing with the programs and the plans that we had six months ago when we did that transaction in The US.
Chan, Analyst: Great. And I'm just looking at the WIP commencements, etcetera. That's actually gone up quite significantly versus what you disclosed at the half year results. Can you perhaps give a little bit of color on what went in and what went out? I assume that the big uplift is due to Vernon, am I correct?
And is that pretty much the reason why the yield on cost went up so significantly?
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: Yeah. Look, you could say it's data center orientated. It's full build outs of data centers, which we think will be a big feature over the next twelve months, and you'll see that I think the full year result. You'll also see that going into the half year in December for this year. But look, certainly from where I'm sitting at the moment, I've just been in The US, that we're going to be doing a high proportion, I think, of turnkeys.
And why I say that is because we've got a lot of demand that wants to be in a year and a half out, so you need to keep building through your program, which is what we're doing. We're staging those programs globally. We'll be kicking off, for example, Ataman here shortly, which is a five story pretty major piece of infrastructure, and effectively we're making sure we get closer to the game line so we can offer our customers outcomes where they might be a year and a half from being able to get their facilities into a powered up form. So, you'll see work in progress move as these projects start coming into WIP, and I think you've seen a little movement at the moment, but that obviously will be a lot greater as we go over the next twelve to eighteen months.
Chan, Analyst: So is LAX-one and Hong Kong-ten in there as a powered shell or fully fitted at the moment?
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: 10 is a shell. Vernon is fully fitted.
Chan, Analyst: Great. Thanks, Greg. That's all I got this morning. Cheers.
Conference Operator: Thank you. Just a moment for our next question. Next, we have Tom Bedore from UBS. Your line is now open.
Tom Bedore, Analyst, UBS: Good morning, Greg. I was just interested in your comment. I think you just mentioned in passing there that you do expect some DC leases in the near term. Just be interested in how that's progressing with the various hyperscalers. And then also, how are you thinking about forming capital partnerships potentially to do the developments?
Is leasing really a precondition to forming those capital partnerships?
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: Yeah, probably the opposite, actually. The capital partners we're talking to like the development process, to be clear, and I think pre commitments are not a cursor to it. So, what we're doing on the customer side, we're having discussions with customers all around the world. Some of those will be floors, some of those will be two floors, some of those will be buildings, some of those might be turnkeys where they want to own at the end, some of those might be shelves that are unsold effectively, some of those might be site sales, and all of the above. So, we look at ourselves globally not as a colo or an operator.
We look at ourselves and effectively are very, very focused on building excellent infrastructure, and that is for everyone that's in the industry, whether a colo, whether a hyperscaler, whether one floor, half a floor, and effectively we'll make sure we can build that high quality infrastructure, deliver it on time, and we're building into the best markets in the world. So, the top data center markets outside The US, which Virginia obviously is strong, you're talking about London, you're talking about Frankfurt, you're talking about Paris, you're talking about Tokyo, you're talking about Sydney, and we're in all those markets and we're getting starts in all those markets over the next except London over the next twelve months. So, we're building in the very best markets, the most high barrier to entry markets where there is very, very good solid demand and negotiations going on in all those markets at different stages. But what we are doing to tighten up the gap in the programme or the time in programme is make sure we move forward along lead items. So we're ordering a lot of generators around the world.
We're putting power infrastructure in. We're going vertical on shelves and two stage arrangements where we'll have a contract for a shell and we'll have a contract for a build through, and we'll keep closing up that timeframe so then we put ourselves in the best position to negotiate outcomes.
Tom Bedore, Analyst, UBS: So from a capital partner's perspective, is the desire to not come in not necessarily require a lease more a function of wanting to leave leasing as long as possible to maximise potential revenue?
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: Look, I think to be quite frank, the partners we're talking to around the world are varied. So, I mentioned in my presentation there's a few data centers that have actually transferred through to Capital Partners. They have completed product in Japan and also up in Europe, and I mentioned that in the presentation. So, what you'll see over the years and many years is a combination of built form that going into partners, you'll see a combination of capital coming in at the development phase so we can share the risk. Because our program around the world of five gigs is over $100,000,000,000 of in value, and we're not sitting here today pretending we're to fund the whole lot.
So, effectively, do want to share the risk on the developments as we go through, because we'll have a number on over the next two or three years and that would make economic sense, but also share the risk. But big capital partners of Goodman's and big capital partners globally like the development process, like the thematic that's running behind the development process, the demand, and you'll see the big CapEx numbers still coming through from the hyperscalers in regard to spends on data centers. A lot of that is in the metro locations that we're in. It'll be many and varied, and we'll be managing capital and risk and return.
Tom Bedore, Analyst, UBS: Sounds like leasing's less of a constraint, at least at this point in time. Thank you.
Conference Operator: Thank you. Just a moment for our next question. Next, we have Ben Brayshaw from Barron Joey. Your line is now open.
Ben Brayshaw, Analyst, Barron Joey: Yes. Good morning, Greg. I was wondering if you could provide a situational update on the establishment of a second partnership in The US to sell down the surplus assets acquired from GNAT.
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: Look, I mentioned that a little earlier. As we were I think last time we chatted, we're through that currently. But I will say, and I said it a bit earlier, that capital is taking its time, people being sensible and cautious and so are we, but we are using this opportunity to actually pick up some pretty good sites around the world, which we are doing in most markets. So, I think there's an opportunity on one side, but you've got to be realistic to adjust your programs, particularly around capital, where people want to be a bit more cautious with what's going on around the world and see a little bit more settlement in regard to certainly what's happening with trade and things of that nature. But The US, we think, is compelling buying at the moment.
Ben Brayshaw, Analyst, Barron Joey: Just in relation to LaxOne and Hong Kong ten, are you able just to, I guess, step through your expectations on the composition of the customer base for those two assets? Are they likely to be, for example, single customer buildings or you're expecting that there'll be a variety of customers that you'll introduce into those projects? And secondly, could you just talk through when you think that the, I guess, the income stream from both of those is likely to stabilize, noting that your comments around completion is the priority. But just curious as to what your expectations are on the yield on costs in terms of that stabilising post completion.
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: Yeah. Look, in Hong Kong, it's pretty clear. Both programs are shells, so you expect in the shell you're going to have a single customer, whether it's a colo that we have in Hong Kong, got a number of colos in our portfolio there. You expect them to be a hyperscaler colo, single operator, leasing the shell because that's the configuration we're working on at the moment. That changes, I'm sure we'll let you know in the work in progress number.
And I think the yields on costs and things are pretty consistent with what you're seeing in the market, and I think the market's looking at anywhere between 9s and 10s, a little bit lower in some of the Asian countries like Japan on shells running through to full MEP fit outs. But the program in Hong Kong at the moment, as was the first couple of hundred megs we did in Chunghwa West, is around a shell program.
Ben Brayshaw, Analyst, Barron Joey: And just, Greg, any comments you could provide on Vernon, given that your comments earlier are that it's likely to be a fully fitted facility?
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: Yeah, I think it's just the location we think is really good. The amount of power available in some of the key markets in The US is difficult. Lead times on a lot of these products is blowing out to years, not months. So, there's real opportunity there. We want to be in a position where we could do floor by floor if we think that's appropriate.
There is colo interest in taking the whole building as well. So, we're just setting ourselves up to give ourselves the maximum flexibility in regard to the negotiations we're having actually right now. We will have an operating model around it, because if you're doing floor by floor, you'll need to operate it. There's some hyperscalers that want us to operate, there's some that want to operate themselves, so we'll play that out as we see it. But we're making sure that we're ordering everything we need and we're going vertical, so then we're closing up the delivery time, so then we have real power with real delivery dates and real certainty, which is critical in the data center program.
Ben Brayshaw, Analyst, Barron Joey: Thanks for your time, Greg.
Conference Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Lou Perrantz from Jarden. Your line is now open.
Lou Perrantz, Analyst, Jarden: Good morning, Greg and team. A quick question. You talked about the trade uncertainty impacting customers. Can you talk about what it means for construction in terms of cost, supply chain, just getting generators and whatnot, so how it's impacting the timing of development?
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: Yeah, no, look, it's not too bad on the construction side. I've got to say though, I think data seen in construction in the last twelve months or so is up certainly over 10% in most places in regard to cost. So, the costs are climbing on some of those aspects. That's got nothing to do with the trade tariffs we've got on at the moment. And I think in regard to industrial, we've probably got a bit of a pullback in cost on some of those because over the last twelve months, the handbrake's been pulled up by a lot of developers that actually in some markets don't have the funding to progress, and the demand with pre commitments is less robust.
So, I think from that point of view, it's coming into equilibrium pretty quickly, which is giving us an advantage on the cost side. At Goodman. We want to build into 'twenty six, beginning at 'twenty seven, mid 'twenty seven. So our program at the moment, as you'll see, will start kicking some starts off for that late 'twenty six, 'twenty seven program, particularly in The US and also through Australia, and some also probably in Japan where we think there's going to be a bit of a shortage. So, industrial pulling back a little bit, data centers a little more expensive, and the amount of contractors globally for data centers is smaller than people would like.
So, in many markets, you've got one or two choices effectively, and that's just because of the demand and also a lot of subcontractors, the ability to get subcontractors is getting strained and difficult. We've even heard that in residentially here in Sydney, subbies are difficult to get for residential because they're actually working on data center projects. Yeah, watching all that pretty closely.
Lou Perrantz, Analyst, Jarden: Okay, thank you. But it sounds like, given that you're still talking about 8% to 10% yield on cost on sales that the higher cost is offset by higher income. Is that fair?
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: Yeah. Look, I think the demand is low, demand is still very good, but particularly in the metro locations we're developing in. And we're going to go vertical in Otamin shortly. That's a big five storey, pretty complex build effectively. You've seen what's happening around North Ryde, barriers to entry are going to be difficult, planning is not going to be easy.
It makes projects like that even more compelling. So, you can imagine we're relatively comfortable where the economics sit.
Lou Perrantz, Analyst, Jarden: Right. Finally, the you mentioned the yield on cost expectation for shells. For the fully fitted projects, you're still expecting kind of mid teens?
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: If you're looking at development IRRs, you'd be mid to late teens. In regard to cash on cost, pretty raw. You're going to be looking for I think mid-nine through to early double digits. So, it's depending on where it is, obviously. It's a big difference if it's in Paris to locations in The US.
Lou Perrantz, Analyst, Jarden: Yeah, even for fully fitted, so similar to what you said about Shells.
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: Yeah, Shell's a little tighter in regard to cash on cost, so they're probably low 9s to 10. Fully fitted can be 10 plus sort of where we're aiming at.
Lou Perrantz, Analyst, Jarden: Thanks, Rick.
Conference Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from James Dreus from CLSA. Your line is now open.
James Dreus, Analyst, CLSA: Yes. Hi, good morning, Greg. Good morning, Nick. You touched on adtarmine just before, Greg. I was just wondering if there's any other DC stats, which are sort of imminent over the next quarter that you're thinking about?
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: Yeah, there are. Tokyo has obviously bought market for us. We're ready to go. I think we talked about that probably a quarter ago. In Europe, we're building transformers and putting all the ordering all the long lead items I've ordered we have ordered not me personally, but we at Goodman Group have ordered more Caterpillars and MTUs, and we've been making decisions around generators.
So, we're into it, no doubt about it. We're closing up the gap on delivery, and that's what we want to do, and we're not in some of the best markets in the world, we are in the best markets of the world, and I think you go and do the global map of data centers and where the demand is, where the barriers to entry and the difficulty to get power, we're in those markets and we're up and down it. So, a lot of time, a lot of intensity of work and there's not many holidays over at this joint at the moment.
James Dreus, Analyst, CLSA: Yeah, okay. Are there any pre commitment thresholds for the whole WIP that we should be thinking about when you're trying to manage risk as you roll out this DC pipeline?
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: I think look for capital, and we'll make some comments about capital as we go forward during the year, but look for capital, big partners. The data center program around the world is 100,000,000,000 rolls off the tongue pretty quickly, doesn't it? But the amount of capital to get there is big. The risks are not underestimated. The barriers to entry are getting high, not lower.
The complexity around power is extreme in different parts of the world. This is a game where you need a lot of money and you need a lot of long term capital, and that's what we're doing right at the moment.
James Dreus, Analyst, CLSA: Okay, so the more capital you bring in, less you're sort of not as worried about pre commitments, I suppose, is the idea?
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: Well, you're not running around trying to finance developments and things like that with banks. You bring in real money, real time to give yourselves the time to be able to build them out without financial risk. And I think the financial risk around data centers and other development as well, where you're building into programs where there is less capital available as well, you'll find there's going to be some things that don't work out terribly well for people. So, we're steering away from leverage, which we have been for the last, I think, fifteen, twenty years. Bronis is actually here.
You can ask him a question if you like. We're steering away from, obviously, leverage, and we're partnering with people with real money that are happy to stand there hand in hand and be able to do this with us.
James Dreus, Analyst, CLSA: Yeah, okay. Maybe just on the logistics pipeline. If we think about that in absolute terms, you sort of mentioned that demand is sort of a little bit difficult in that space at the moment, which is not hugely surprising. But given that you've completed a lot, should we expect that portion of the WIP in absolute terms to actually tail off a bit over the next halves, or do you reckon you can hold that?
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: Look, these are actually big projects we're working on at the moment, so effectively it might tail off a little bit, but longer term the trend's going to be strong because the parks we're doing, sort of like a billion dollars a park now, and we're buying actually bigger sites than we were five, six years ago, and there's land with infrastructure transactions we're doing around the world at the moment, which $500,000,000 gets you a start. I'm talking Aussie dollars and it could be in the thick end of $900 to $1,000,000,000 of land and infrastructure. We're putting more infrastructure in the bigger sites and bigger programs. So, I wouldn't underestimate it, is where I'm at. And because developers have pulled back around the world and they can't fund because maybe they need banks to do it, banks not doing it, that comes back to the opportunity I spoke about a bit earlier where we are getting access to some really good regeneration sites that maybe a year or two ago everyone was doing it, now they're not.
So, we see that as an opportunity moving forward. So, maybe in the short term, long term, it's going to be pretty solid. Other thing we're a big fan of is the mechanization, the automation. And I think you'll find fundamentally inside ten years, there won't be anyone in our warehouses. They'll all be dark, and it's all robotics with a bunch of engineers.
So, you want to set yourself up for those big sites where you can put in big power infrastructure because you need more effectively to drive these things. So, we're making sure we don't end up with stranded assets in the future where if you don't have the power and you don't have the infrastructure around them, you could have a stranded asset.
James Dreus, Analyst, CLSA: Okay. One more easy one, if I may. Just the yield on cost for industrial at the moment, is that still in the sixes or can you get a seven in front of it for what you're kicking off?
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: Yes. We're seven to eight, except Tokyo.
James Dreus, Analyst, CLSA: Thank you. Our
Conference Operator: next question comes from Richard Jones from JPMorgan.
Richard Jones, Analyst, JPMorgan: Greg, can you just clarify the structure of the data center joint ventures you've got in Europe and Japan and whether other partnerships that you're working on will be different from that?
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: Yeah, the two specifically mentioned today are buying or participating in shells that we've built primarily in Frankfurt and in Tokyo. Tokyo, we had a program of four. We're through three and we've got another one still to go. So, that's in product. I think on the development side, moving forward, bear in mind we have, I think, globally one of the biggest development programs in the sector.
We're looking for and we have already development partners. We've got a development partner who's now in Japan where the development partner's on full risk, but they are big financial institutions with big amounts of capital that rely on our expertise to make sure that we keep them safe, and there's obviously big returns at play as well.
Richard Jones, Analyst, JPMorgan: Okay, and just the Goodman equity ownership in the end product structures and the development products that you're working on?
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: Yeah, development will be fifty-fifty. The end products are anywhere between 20s to 50s. So pretty consistent with what we've done around industrial, but any development partnerships will be fifty-50s. And then with the requisite arrangement Goodman makes over development services and other things like that.
Richard Jones, Analyst, JPMorgan: Okay. And then the eight identified development starts that you outlined at the capital raise, should we expect that you have land sale profits out of the balance sheet and the managed funds into these new development partnerships and then all the construction will be done in those partnerships?
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: Look, I think you'll find there'll be many in varied ways, but I think I saw your note recently, and I think it was relatively clear what you said. I don't take any issue with your view on how we might do it.
Richard Jones, Analyst, JPMorgan: Okay. Thanks, Craig.
Conference Operator: Thank you. I see no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference back to Greg for closing remarks.
Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group: I'd just like to thank everyone very much and good day.
Conference Operator: Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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