Investing.com
Published Feb 26, 2025 09:57AM ET
Golden Ocean Group (NASDAQ:GOGL) Ltd reported its Q4 2024 earnings with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.20, slightly missing the forecasted $0.21. Despite the minor miss, the company showed resilience with a net income of $39 million. The stock responded positively, with a 1.7% increase in pre-market trading, reflecting investor confidence in the company's strategic direction and future outlook. According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains impressive financial health with a "GREAT" overall score of 3.04 and a perfect Piotroski Score of 9, indicating strong operational efficiency.
Golden Ocean Group Ltd demonstrated robust performance in Q4 2024, with net income reaching $39 million, translating to an EPS of $0.20. Although this fell short of analyst expectations, the company achieved a significant increase in full-year net profit, up to $223.2 million from $112.3 million in 2023. The company attributes its strong annual performance to strategic investments and operational efficiencies.
Golden Ocean reported an EPS of $0.20, missing the forecast by $0.01. However, the company exceeded revenue expectations with $210.97 million against the forecasted $176.84 million, marking a positive surprise of 19.3%.
Following the earnings announcement, Golden Ocean's stock price rose by 1.7% in pre-market trading. The stock's movement reflects investor optimism, despite the slight EPS miss, as the company continues to outperform revenue expectations and maintain a healthy dividend policy.
Golden Ocean remains optimistic about its future prospects, anticipating stronger market sentiment in the latter half of 2025. The company is focused on fleet renewal and maintaining its leading position in the Capesize and Newcastle Max segments, with expectations of capitalizing on market opportunities in vessel sales and purchases.
Peter Simonson, Interim CEO and CFO, emphasized the company's commitment to cost reduction and maintaining a low cash breakeven rate. "We continue to push for lower cost, retaining conservative meaningful leverage," Simonson stated. He also highlighted the company's strategic position, saying, "We are more sellers than buyers at the moment."
During the earnings call, analysts questioned the potential impact of U.S. port fees and recent freight rate movements. The company's management addressed these concerns by outlining their drydocking strategy and vessel upgrade investments, reinforcing their commitment to operational efficiency and environmental compliance.
Conference Operator: Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Golden Ocean Group Limited Q4 twenty twenty four Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants will be in listen only mode. Please note that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker, Mr.
Peter Simonson, Interim CEO and CFO. Please go ahead.
Peter Simonson, Interim CEO and CFO, Golden Ocean Group Limited: Good afternoon and welcome to the Gold Motion Q4 '20 '20 '4 earnings release. My name is Peter Simonson and I am the Interim CEO and CFO of Gold Motion. Today, I will present our Q4 numbers and forward outlook. In the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, we have the following main highlights. Our adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four ended at $69,900,000 compared to $124,400,000 in the third quarter.
We delivered a net income of $39,000,000 and earnings per share of $0.2 compared to a net income of $56,300,000 and earnings per share of $0.28 for the third quarter. Our full year 2024 net profit was $223,200,000 dollars up from an annual result of $112,300,000 in 2023. Our TCE rates were about $24,700 per day for Capesizes and about $14,800 per day for our Panamax vessels. The fleet wide net TCE of about $20,800 for the quarter. We have during Q4 recorded drydocking costs of 34,300,000.0 relating to 13 vessels compared to 9,700,000.0 in Q3 relating to five vessels.
We have declared a purchase option under our lease agreement with SFL Corp for eight Capesize vessels for an aggregate sum of $112,000,000 The acquisition will be part financed by a two year ninety million dollars non amortizing revolving credit facility and will reduce our Capesize cash breakeven by approximately $1,000 per day. For Q1, we have secured a net TCE of about $15,100 per day for 77% of Capesize days and about 9,900 per day for 81% of our Panamax days. For Q2, we have locked in a net TCE of about 20,900 per day for 16% of our Capesize days and about $14,200 per day for 10% of our Panamax days. Finally, we are pleased to declare a dividend of $0.15 per share for the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four. Let's look a little deeper into the numbers.
Our total fleet YTCE rate was 20,800 in Q4, down from 23,700 in Q3. We are in a period with frequent drydocks. From Q4 and including Q2 twenty twenty five, we will have drydocked close to 30 of our Capesize Newcastle Maxes. We had 13 ships drydocked in Q4 compared to five ships in Q3, contributing to approximately three sixty four days of off fire in Q4 versus two fifty three days in Q3. Nine ships are scheduled to dry dock in Q1 twenty twenty five with four vessels completed as of today.
And further seven ships are expected to dry dock in Q2 twenty twenty five. We recorded net revenues of SEK 174,900,000.0, down from SEK 206,600,000.0 in Q3. Our OpEx recorded SEK 95,600,000.0 versus SEK $69,400,000 a $26,000,000 increase. Running expenses ended at $59700000.0.4800000.0 dollars up from Q3, mainly due to bunkers related to dry dock and expense ballast water treatment system upgrades. We expense all our drydocking costs and we saw an increase in the OpEx result of $24,600,000 quarter on quarter relating to drydocking.
OpEx classified from charter hire was $2,000,000,400,000 down from Q3. Our general and administrative expenses ended at $6,400,000 up from $5,300,000 in Q3. Daily G and A came in at $7.00 $9 per day, net of cost free charge to affiliated companies, dollars 137 per day up from Q3. Now charter hire expense, we recorded 4,200,000 versus $6,400,000 in Q3 with the lower number of vessel days for the trading portfolio and profit sharing expense accounting for the difference. Our net financial expense ended at $23,300,000 versus $25,500,000 in Q3, a reduction mainly due to lower software rates, as well as lower average debt in the quarter.
On derivatives and other financial income, we recorded a gain of $13,600,000 compared to a loss of $12,000,000 in Q3. On derivatives, we recorded a gain of $11,800,000 versus a loss of $11,000,000 in Q3. For results from investments in associates, we recorded a gain of $1,600,000 compared to $700,000 loss in Q3 relating to investments in Swiss Marine, TFG and UFC. And a net profit of $39,000,000 or $0.2 per share and adjusted net profit of $12,700,000 or $0.06 and a dividend of $0.15 declared for the quarter. Looking at our cash flow, we recorded cash flow from operations of $71,700,000 down from $100,800,000 in Q3.
Cash flow used in financings of SEK91.5 million, mainly comprising of net proceeds from new financings and new building draw downs of SEK26.9 million, dollars 30 1 point 9 million dollars in scheduled debt and lease repayments, $19,000,000 in prepayments of debt relating to vessels sold, $5,700,000 in debt fees paid and share repurchases and dividend payments of $60,000,000 relating to the Q3 results. Total net increase in cash of $14,100,000 Looking at our balance sheet, We recorded cash and cash equivalents of $131,700,000 including $2,600,000 of restricted cash. In addition, we have $150,000,000 of undrawn available credit facilities at quarter end. Debt and finance lease liabilities totaled $1,400,000,000 at end of Q4, down by approximately $23,000,000 quarter on quarter. Average fleet wide loan to value under the company's debt facilities for quarter end was 38.3% and book equity of $1,900,000,000 and a ratio of equity to total assets of approximately 56%.
Gold Motion has in Q4 started and will in the first half twenty twenty five continue an intensive drydocking period for its Capesize fleet. Close to half of its of the fleet completing special surveys over a period of nine months. We believe that the timing of the drydocks is favorable ahead of a seasonal stronger second half of twenty twenty five and onwards. Gold and Ocean maintains the position as the largest listed owner in the Capesize and Newcastle Max segment. Capes and Newcastle Maxes represent over 80% of Gold and Ocean's deadweight tons and thereby earnings capacity.
And we are the only listed drybulk company offering CapExposure and at the same time significant market capitalization and trading liquidity. In Q4, we saw cargo volumes start off healthy, but volumes fell by November ahead of the seasonally weaker winter season. Brazilian R and R volumes were down 13% quarter on quarter, while annual exports volumes were up 3%. Vale reported record exports in the upper end of guidance range, while the Australian exports continued in strong volumes, but slightly down quarter on quarter. We saw Vale reduced production after reaching their annual targets and further we've seen bad weather impacting mining and port operations, both in Brazil and Australia.
In its high season, the Guinea bauxite volumes have grown 14% year on year and have during Q4 averaged over 13,500,000 per month run rate exports, up from average 10,500,000 tons per month in Q3. Coal volumes continued in healthy levels in Q4, but whereas Colombian coal export increased ton mile in the first half of twenty twenty four, in Q4 we saw volumes being replaced by Australia and Indonesia. China is providing steady demand for most cargo types, representing 74% of iron ore volumes and 85% of worksite volumes for 2024, further supplemented by other Southeast Asian economies. As a comment to the various tariffs and taxes being announced, U. S.
Exports are largely limited to grain and coal volumes, which in an adverse scenario, we expect will be replaced by other sources. As an example, of the five forty three million tonnes of coal that China imported last year, only 12,200,000 came from The U. S. Iron ore and bauxite are not U. S.
Related cargoes. However, an ongoing trade war will be negative for the sentiment and over time impact drybulk demand. Looking at drybulk volumes from an historical perspective, we have over the last twenty five years seen volumes grow at a multiple of 1.1 to GDP growth. This is mainly due to demand for drybulk commodities being higher in emerging economies, who have had higher and average growth rates. Although the growth in emerging economies driven by China and India has come down from historical highs, we expect the trend to continue.
In addition, because emerging economies are located away from exporting regions, The ton mile effect of this growth will add another boost to shipping demand. This is the case for most major drybulk commodities. Latest growth projections for 2025 and 2026 from IMF forecast an annual GDP growth of 3.3% globally, while China and India are expected to grow 4.56.5% respectively. Brazilian miners have delivered a full year export of three ninety million tonnes, which is in the upper end of the full year guiding. Both Vale and Australian miners are continuing to guide positively on production targets for 2025 with new expansion projects also emerging in both basins.
Australia and Brazil continue to be the largest exporters of iron ore. Brazil with around three times the sailing distance to Asia compared to Australia is the most important ton mile demand contributor to the Capesize market. Chinese steel production has remained flat quarter on quarter, but it's up 6% compared to Q4 twenty twenty three. Sentiment among steel mills is more positive and Chinese authorities have reiterated their commitment to stimulate the economy if needed. But analysts claim that new stimulus news has been postponed due to the ongoing tariff discussions.
China continue its attempt to decarbonize its heavy industry, including steel production. By using higher quality commodities, they're able to reduce emissions per tonne steel produced. Increased demand for high grade iron ore and coal is highly supported to tonne mile with the largest new deposits of high grade iron ore being found in Brazil and Guinea. Outside China and India, crude steel production has started recovering, but only by conservative 1.5% quarter on quarter as weak demand from construction and high interest rates is limiting growth. However, as the recovery is coming closer, it presents a significant upside to potential steel demand.
In Q4 this year, we will see the Simon Do Mine in Guinea, West Africa commence exports. Simon Do high grade iron ore mine is expected to ramp up its production over two years, adding an expected 120,000,000 tonnes export capacity annually. In addition, new expansion projects are underway in Brazil with an additional capacity of approximately 50,000,000 tonnes coming on stream during 2025 and 2026. Iron ore prices have been volatile, but stayed at historically healthy levels despite negative macro backdrop and actually increased amidst an escalating trade uncertainty. Iron ore is currently trading at around $107 per tonne, which compares very favorably to the breakeven rate for the major miners of approximately $40 per tonne delivered in Asia.
At current iron ore prices, most producers are profitable, but it's expected that new volumes will put pressure on prices. The cost curve among the key producers shows that Australian Brazilian ore is highly resilient at lower prices and out compete more expensive producers, including Chinese domestic production. Given the quality of the new iron ore coming into the market, analysts are expecting that the high grade ore will replace Chinese domestic, which is of significantly poorer quality. If we conservatively assume that the Cymandu volumes will replace Australian volumes, it will triple the sailing distance to Asia, boosting tonne mile demand for Capesizes significantly. Guinea in West Africa has become a major exporter and holds to vast deposits of high grade bauxite and iron ore.
The Guinea government has together with mining majors and large Chinese industrial conglomerates made significant investments in infrastructure and mine developments. With the majority of demand being located in Southeast Asia, this provides steady growth in ton mile for the largest vessels. Kinmen bauxite exports over the last five years has grown with an average compounded growth rate of 22%. Bauxite, which is used in production of aluminum, is feeding the booming EV industry as well as other sectors in China. The Gilean bauxite replaces volumes from Indonesia, which in addition to significant growth in traded volumes and ton mile represents a switch to Capesizes from smaller vessel segments.
The average monthly export volumes in 2024 were 12,000,000. While Q1 to date in high season, exports have exceeded 15,500,000 tonnes per month. Following infrastructure improvements, analysts are expecting an annual export of 155,000,000 tonnes in 2025, representing a 5% to 10% year on year growth. As bauxite exports currently contributing to about 13% to 15% of ton mile for Capesize vessels, This will represent the demand growth covering most, if not all of the scheduled deliveries of Capesizes in 2025. The order book development has followed last year's pattern with container ships filling up most of the capacity on shipyards able to build Newcastle Maxis and Capesize vessels.
Despite elevated newbuilding prices, the largest dry bulk vessels remain unfavored by the shipyards as they provide for lower profit margins compared to other shipping segments. In addition, limited shipyard capacity leads to long dated delivery dates, currently quoting 2028 as the earliest delivery for any meaningful capacity volume. The global Capesize and Newcastle Max fleet is entering into a period of frequent drydockings. And analysts estimate an additional 0.5% to 1% in fleet capacity reduction during both 2025 and 2026 compared to 2024. We are in a period with increasing competitive advantages for modern vessels, both in terms of fuel efficiency and carrying capacity, but also increasing requirements to safety, crew welfare and emissions.
The large size dry bulk fleet is aging and over half of the Capesize fleet will be above 15 years of age in 2028, in a period where environmental regulations are tightening. The fleet continues to operate at record efficiency. And although we have seen some seasonal disruptions, it has not reduced the operating fleet capacity meaningfully. For drybulk, full urbanization of transits through the Suez Canal will have a marginal negative effect to provide some reduction in ton miles, but will also open for further transatlantic trades. The company has over the last year outperformed indexes by close to $4,500 per day on the full fleet.
We continue to push for lower cost, retaining conservative meaningful leverage and an industry low cash breakeven rate. The recently announced refinancing of leases for eight vessels with SFL Corp will reduce the cash breakeven rate for the Cape fleet with $1,000 per day. As mentioned, we are using the weakness in the market to significantly upgrade the vessels. This will provide us with highly competitive fleet ahead of the seasonally strong second half and onwards. These investments are funded with a combination of sales proceeds and cash on hand.
We continue our strategy to reward our shareholders through dividends, as well as previously announced share buybacks. Although we expect volatility in the near term, with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, we continue to remain fundamentally positive on the market outlook and have positioned ourselves thereafter. On the left hand side, we illustrate a significant cash flow potential of Golden Ocean as we move into the stronger market sentiment. I will now pass the word back to the operator and will have any questions.
Conference Operator: Thank you. Thank you. We are now going to proceed with our first question. The questions come from the line of Omar Nochtar from Jefferies. Please ask your question.
Your line is open.
Omar Nochtar, Analyst, Jefferies: Hi, Simon. Thank you. Good update as usual and kind of given a good overview of the market and how things look big picture. Just a couple of questions as a follow-up to that. Maybe and I know it's a little too short term, but what do you make of what we've been seeing here this week in the cake market specifically?
I know it's still early days and rates haven't really run away, but there seems to be a good amount of momentum. Sentiment looks like it's improving. You can see that obviously in the futures and whatnot. I just want to get your sense of what do you think is behind this latest move we've been seeing in freight rates?
Peter Simonson, Interim CEO and CFO, Golden Ocean Group Limited: Hi, Omar. Thanks for the question. I think what we're seeing now is a little bit of a rebound in sentiment, which is based on improvement in weather conditions in Australia, which has started to ramp up some volumes there, which disappear for a while when cyclones were active. In addition, we've seen due to the boost in Panamax rates, we've seen some of the coal volumes move into The Capes as well, which has created a bit of a squeeze in The Pacific that you've seen now with rates moving. We're still not sort of seeing a lot of volume increases in Brazil.
It's still at fairly muted levels. But I think that's what's driving the sentiment now. But it does show that the market is very responsive and we are sort of in the end of maybe the seasonal downturn. And then it remains to be seen how long we will need to wait before it sort of firmly moves upwards.
Omar Nochtar, Analyst, Jefferies: Yes. Okay. Thank you. Good color. And then just kind of on the drydocking, as you mentioned, you've perhaps maybe accelerated the drydocks or at least are going through some upgrades.
You spent $34,000,000 in the fourth quarter on those 13 ships. What are you thinking or what are you budgeting for the drydocks you have earmarked for the first half of twenty twenty
Peter Simonson, Interim CEO and CFO, Golden Ocean Group Limited: five? I think we it depends very much on which sort of is it the five year, 10 year or fifteen year drydock. I think in general, what we are doing is we're putting a lot of efforts into upgrading the vessels within used and best paints, the best sandblasting of the hull. We are also investing in Mavis Ducts and BOSCAP FINS on some of the ships. So we are in addition to moving ships up to class standard and sort of making them sort of fully maintained, we are also investing additional money into them.
I think the sort of the average that you saw in this quarter was maybe slightly higher than what we would see normally going forward because we have had quite a few of the fifteen year old drydockings in this quarter. But I think the due to the regulations that we have seen come in and the requirements to the quality of the vessels moving into the drybox space as well, we have seen that costs have moved up and expenses have moved up in addition to sort of the value of having a high performing vessel commercially.
Omar Nochtar, Analyst, Jefferies: Got it. Okay, that's very helpful. Thank you. I'll pass it back.
Peter Simonson, Interim CEO and CFO, Golden Ocean Group Limited: Thanks, Omar.
Conference Operator: We are now going to proceed with our next question. The question comes from the line of Craig Lewis (JO:LEWJ) from BTIG. Please ask your question.
Craig Lewis, Analyst, BTIG: Hey, thanks and good afternoon and thanks for taking my question. I was hoping you could talk a little bit about opportunities you're seeing on the sales and purchase side. Obviously, the purchase options you exercised were in the money. So I guess that was I mean, I guess I would think that was kind of a no brainer just given the pricing of that. But I guess like as you think about positioning the fleet over the next one to two years, How are you thinking about opportunities maybe to add tonnage or following this eight vessel acquisition thinking about maybe even selling some vessels now?
Peter Simonson, Interim CEO and CFO, Golden Ocean Group Limited: Yes. Hi, Greg. I think from where we are in the cycle at the moment, we are maybe more sellers than buyers where the vessel valuations are coming in. We do have an ongoing fleet renewal strategy, which means that we have some older outliers that we for that reason will consider selling. At the same time, we want to maintain as much capacity as we can in The Cape and Newcastle MAX base, which is sort of our strategic sort of long term favorable segment.
I think the SFL transaction is more a refinancing than a sort of S and P transaction. I mean, we've had the ships, we had the options, they were structured in a way which made them sort of very, very highly likely that we will declare the options. And so that so we won't be sort of seeing those for more of those. So I think in general in the S and P side, I think we are generally more sellers than buyers at the moment. We are more sort of keen on growing in the Capesize space than the Panamax space over time.
And other than that, we will sort of continue to be opportunistic. And it's not been that long until since we sold some vessels. But if the opportunity comes up, we may end up buying ships as well. I'd say it's we're always very light footed and nimble here in the building.
Craig Lewis, Analyst, BTIG: Yes. Thank you for that. And then just it's funny how the cycles kind of play out. Everyone's a little bit different.
Omar Nochtar, Analyst, Jefferies: I guess
Craig Lewis, Analyst, BTIG: in the past other companies have been a little bit more active in M and A. I guess as you think about that and people always ask about the potential for M and A in the drybulk space. I guess just given your focus on the larger scale or the large vessels, I mean, I guess what I would think is as you look out over the next twelve months where we are in the cycle, do you think we could see a pickup in M and A or do you think it's kind of business as usual and that can be private and public fleets?
Peter Simonson, Interim CEO and CFO, Golden Ocean Group Limited: Yes. No, I think M and A is a wide term. I think transactions where we use the share as a collateral So it's very much possible if the pricing is right. And obviously, there's different constellations on the fleet and on the shareholder side on different players in the space, which may add or not add value to an M and A transaction. But M and A in general has proven to be challenging in the shipping space as sort of the it is the assets that we're everybody's after and they are pretty generic.
So if we start to trade a little bit more around the sort of underlying asset values and sort of there is the right combination of ownership and fleet composition in terms of age and type. That's very much possible.
Omar Nochtar, Analyst, Jefferies: Okay. Super helpful. Thanks for the time.
Peter Simonson, Interim CEO and CFO, Golden Ocean Group Limited: Thanks,
Conference Operator: We are now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Clement Mullins from Value Investors Edge. Please ask your question.
Clement Mullins, Analyst, Value Investors Edge: Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions and thank you for this presentation. I wanted to ask about recent news flow around the potential imposition of port fees on Chinese built vessels docking in The U. S. It remains to be seen whether those will ultimately come into force.
But if so, what impact do you foresee on the overall market? To what extent do you expect those to impact trading
Peter Simonson, Interim CEO and CFO, Golden Ocean Group Limited: patterns? Hi. I think it is very much coming from what the analysts we read about the new proposal and what the analysts view on it. It seems that the suggested policies are very much in on the drawing board still and then it's suggesting is very much course and not sort of in the details enough to make any meaningful assessment of the impact. I think for drybulk in general, The U.
S. Is not a major player. It has some volumes on the soybean side and also on coal. These are volumes that are possible to replace from other sources if it becomes economically challenging to lift these volumes from The U. S.
Due to the increased cost on freight. So I think that falls in line with a lot of other elements that we see in the drywall space, where there are things happening in one region, which then reroutes trading patterns from one place to another. And that's very much possible here in the if this suggestion comes into play. But I do also think that it seems that it will hurt as it looks more U. S.
Consumer than it will China, which it seems to be the intention. And I think also like with the fuel EU or other types of tariffs or taxes or fees, they will be passed on to the end user at the end of the day and will be sort of included in the freight calculations when we fix our ships. So it will not be we do not see this as a massive change to the shipping outlook for drybulk.
Clement Mullins, Analyst, Value Investors Edge: Yes, makes sense. I was just wondering whether you expected that to have an effect on the, let's say, Korean or Japanese chips taking more of a prominent role in routes towards The U. S. But time will tell, I guess. So I'll turn it over.
Peter Simonson, Interim CEO and CFO, Golden Ocean Group Limited: Okay. Thank you.
Clement Mullins, Analyst, Value Investors Edge: Sorry, go ahead.
Peter Simonson, Interim CEO and CFO, Golden Ocean Group Limited: No, no. I was just saying that if it comes through and it will come into effect as it is presented, then I guess more of the ships in the Atlantic Basin will be Korean and Japanese ships. But it is still very much a theoretical exercise.
Clement Mullins, Analyst, Value Investors Edge: All right. Makes sense. I'll turn it over. Thank you for taking my questions.
Peter Simonson, Interim CEO and CFO, Golden Ocean Group Limited: Thank you.
Conference Operator: We have no further questions at this time. I will now hand back to you for any closing remarks.
Peter Simonson, Interim CEO and CFO, Golden Ocean Group Limited: Thank you very much. Thank you for listening in and thank you for the questions. And have a continued great week.
Conference Operator: This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.
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