The longest bull run in stock-market history is on its last legs — and a 'deep and prolonged correction' is coming
Business Insider
Published Dec 04, 2018 06:02AM ET
Updated Dec 04, 2018 09:29AM ET
- The longest bull run in US stock-market history is on its last legs, at least in the view of a team of technical analysts at Societe Generale (PA:SOGN).
- The team says Elliott Wave Principles point to a stock-market top that will produce a "deep and prolonged correction."
- Wall Street strategists are mostly bullish for 2019, with an average year-end price target of 3,052.
The rolling bear market " all year, thinks most of the declines have already occurred, with the market having fallen by as much as 11.47% from its September peak.
"The Rolling Bear market is now better understood by the consensus; and more importantly, it is better priced, with forward P/Es falling 18% from peak to trough," he wrote in a recent note. "In short, while 90% of the price damage has been done by this bear, we've likely only served 50% of the time."
Wilson says that there is more than a 50% chance of a modest earnings recession in 2019 but that the market should look past that as the Federal Reserve pauses its interest-rate-hike cycle in the middle of next year. He has a 2019 year-end S&P 500 target of 2,750 — just below its current level.
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Written By: Business Insider
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