Tesla faces bumpy ride in H2, but real story is autonomy, robots: DB
Investing.com | Author Yasin Ebrahim
Published Jul 18, 2025 04:15PM ET
Investing.com -- Tesla’s second-quarter deliveries topped Deutsche Bank’s forecast thanks to stronger-than-expected results in the US and overseas, but Deutsche Bank analysts remain cautious on volumes and margins for the rest of 2025—even as they double down on the long-term promise of autonomous driving and humanoid robotics as Tesla’s true growth engine.
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) delivered 384,000 vehicles in Q2, down 13% from the same period last year but up 14% from Q1, topping Deutsche Bank’s internal forecast, with the upside driven by stronger results in the U.S. and international markets even as China tracked a bit softer than expected, Deutsche Bank analysts said in a recent note. The analysts now forecast Q2 revenue at $22.2 billion, helped by a Model Y mix that lifted average selling prices 4% quarter-on-quarter.
Margins are also tracking better than expected, with automotive gross margin excluding credits now seen around 14% in Q2, versus 12.5% in Q1. Still, the analysts are less upbeat on the rest of the year, calling for 1.58 million vehicle deliveries in 2025, which is below consensus of 1.62 million, pointing to persistent uncertainty around Model Q’s timing, price competition in China, and the impact of rivals like Xiaomi’s YU7.
“Looking at the rest of the year, we maintain a cautious stance on volume,” the analysts said, highlighting that their delivery forecast “remains below consensus” and that Model Q ramp is the key swing factor.
Tamer U.S. tariffs than expected, meanwhile, have encouraged the analysts to revise their full-year auto gross margin (ex credits) forecast higher to 13.8%. Still there's plenty of reason for caution, the analysts warn, noting that pressure on overall gross margin and ongoing competition in China where a new Model Y L and a Model 3+ variant are set to launch.
These headwinds, however, aren't likely to be a drag on the long-term outlook for Tesla. Deutsche Bank sees real value in Tesla’s push into full autonomy and humanoids, calling these “leading positions” in transformative technology.
Tesla’s pilot robotaxi fleet in Austin, which launched with a small geofenced Model Y fleet last month, looks set for rapid expansion in coming quarters. DB expects the fleet to top 1,000 vehicles within 6–9 months as the service expands to San Francisco, Phoenix, and potentially Miami.
“With robotaxi now officially in operation, we think Tesla’s roadmap will start off somewhat similar to Waymo, focusing on expanding size of vehicle fleet and operating domains,” the analysts said. They added that operational and teleoperator efficiency is likely to improve by year-end, with Tesla also poised to share more real-world safety and usage metrics.
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