Estee Lauder, Canada Goose slash annual targets as China recovery drags

By Ananya Mariam Rajesh and Aatrayee Chatterjee

(Reuters) -Estee Lauder and Canada Goose Holdings (NYSE:GOOS) on Wednesday cut their annual forecasts as the luxury goods companies grapple with weak demand in high-growth market China.

Estee's shares tumbled as much as 21% to hit an over six-year low of $102.22 while Canada Goose's stock shed 10%.

Global companies ranging from L'Oreal to LVMH have indicated that inflation and economic turmoil are curbing a post-pandemic spending spree, mainly in the world's second-largest economy China.

Luxury companies have also flagged a hit from Beijing's tighter controls of "daigou" resellers - people who buy items at lower prices abroad and resell them at a discount in the country.

"They are very exposed to the daigou trade and are also big beneficiaries...the Chinese authorities have clearly clamped down on these bigger trades and it might have fundamentally changed the trade from here," said Javier Gonzalez Lastra, luxury-focused portfolio manager at Tema ETFs.

Canada Goose, whose luxury parkas retail for over $1,000, said sales in China slowed in the second quarter from the preceding quarter, while Estee has struggled with a weaker-than-expected rebound in demand from fliers in Asia, mainly in travel destinations such as Korea and China's Hainan province.

"Their (Canada Goose's) Chinese business has not gone back to what they would have anticipated at this point...," said Cole Smead of Smead Capital Management. "The people selling the stock today are just saying in the interim they do not think it is going to recover anytime soon."

Smead Capital owns Canada Goose shares in its International Value portfolio.

Estee signaled that a resetting of inventory in Asia travel retail is expected to extend until the end of the third quarter of its financial year 2024.

Duty-free retailer Dufry is expected to give a clearer picture of travel retail growth when it reports quarterly results on Thursday.

Estee now expects adjusted profit per share between $2.17 and $2.42 for its full year, compared to a prior forecast of $3.50 to $3.75. It said disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East could have an 8 cents per share impact on profit.

Annual sales are estimated to decrease 2% to an increase of 1%, compared with a rise of between 5% and 7% earlier.

Canada Goose expects 2024 revenue to be between C$1.20 billion ($864.49 million) and C$1.40 billion, compared to C$1.40 billion to C$1.50 billion estimated earlier.

Annual adjusted profit is expected to be between C$0.60 and C$1.40 per share, compared to the prior range of C$1.20 to C$1.48.

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Canada Goose also posted a nearly 11% decline in revenue in the United States region, on strained demand for high-end goods while Estee, seen as an affordable luxury, posted an 8% increase in sales in the Americas.

($1 = 1.3881 Canadian dollars)