Boeing lifts China jet demand estimate over two decades to $1.47 trln

Reuters

Published Sep 22, 2021 11:48PM ET

Updated Sep 23, 2021 01:06AM ET

BEIJING (Reuters) -Boeing Co raised its forecast slightly on Thursday for China's aircraft demand for the next 20 years, betting on the country's quick rebound from COVID-19 and future growth in its budget airline sector and e-commerce.

Chinese airlines will need 8,700 new airplanes through 2040, 1.2% higher than its previous prediction of 8,600 planes made last year. Those would be worth $1.47 trillion based on list prices, the U.S. planemaker said in a statement.

The 1.2% increase contrasted with the 6.3% growth Boeing (NYSE:BA) forecast last year, which made China a bright spot in the aviation market at the height of coronavirus lockdowns worldwide.

Earlier this month, Boeing revised up long-term forecasts for global airplane demand on the back of a strong recovery in commercial air travel in domestic markets like the United States.

"There are promising opportunities to significantly expand international long-haul routes and air freight capacity," said Richard Wynne, managing director of China marketing at Boeing's commercial arm.

"Longer-term, there is the potential for low-cost carrier growth to further build on single-aisle demand."

China's domestic aviation market, although still vulnerable to sporadic local COVID-19 outbreaks, has more or less rebounded to pre-COVID levels, but the country's borders remain virtually closed, with the number of international flights only 2% of pre-COVID levels.

Boeing projected a need for nearly 6,500 new single-aisle airplanes over the next 20 years, while China's widebody fleet, including passenger and cargo models, will require 1,850 new planes, accounting for 20% of total deliveries.

Air freight market has become a bright spot for Boeing in China as e-commerce demand booms, even as the U.S. planemaker struggles with sales of passenger jets due to trade tensions and the grounding of its 737 MAX.