Published Jul 15, 2019 06:00AM ET
Updated Jul 15, 2019 09:30AM ET
Brazil's High-Flying Stocks May Gain Altitude as Rates Decline
(Bloomberg) -- Brazilian stocks have extended their year-to-date gain to about 20% on renewed optimism that Latin America’s largest economy will finally overhaul its heavily indebted social security system. But the rally that has pushed the market to record highs still may have some juice left.
The benchmark Ibovespa index may climb 11% from current levels to about 115,000 by the end of 2019, according to the average forecast of 10 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. Their targets range from 105,000 to 123,000, implying an increase of as much as 18%. That would mark the fourth year of double-digit gains for Brazilian stocks.
Reforming pensions should allow Brazil’s central bank to reduce the benchmark interest rate below the current, historically low 6.5%, pushing more funds into the local stock market, strategists say. While the domestic swap rates curve is pricing in an easing cycle of 108 basis point until the end of the year, some of the nation’s fund managers and economists see room for the Selic rate to reach 5%.
“A strong fiscal anchor will likely open room for deeper interest rate cuts,” Bradesco BBI analysts led by Andre Carvalho wrote in a July 10 report, raising their target for the Ibovespa to 122,000 from 116,000. “Low interest rates should help boost the capital markets and M&A activities, as well as reduce financial expenses and increase the attractiveness of bond-like stocks,” Carvalho said.
Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) has reiterated its overweight rating for Brazilian stocks in its Latin American portfolio, seeing the Ibovespa at 120,000 in the end of this year. “Flows into equities should keep supporting the market,” BofA’s Latin America equity strategist David Beker wrote in a note.
Passing pension reform is also expected to unlock a long-awaited rebound in Brazil’s economy. Since the beginning of the year, economists have been lowering their estimates for gross domestic product in 2019, as doubts about the country’s fiscal outlook have kept investments on hold.
Here’s a list of strategists’ top picks in Brazil:
Bradesco BBI
BTG Pactual
Itau BBA
JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM)
Safra
Written By: Bloomberg
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.