Atlassian stock: Should you own it into the print, or wait to buy a dip after?
Investing.com | Author Sam Boughedda
Published Jul 19, 2025 06:00AM ET
Investing.com -- Investors are split on Atlassian (NASDAQ:TEAM) ahead of its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings, with Bernstein stating in a note this week that it has become “one of the most debated names in our coverage.”
The key question heading into the results, according to the firm, is: “Should we own it into the print, or wait to buy a dip after?”
Bernstein maintained an Outperform rating and a $310 price target on the stock, citing long-term strength and upside potential despite near-term uncertainty around guidance.
“The real anxiety surrounds the upcoming FY26 guidance and how the company will balance its 3-year 20% CAGR target with a desired beat and raise cadence,” analysts wrote.
While the firm expects FY26 growth to reach 21% to 22%, it anticipates that Atlassian may initially guide to only around 17% growth.
That’s below both the 3-year 20% CAGR target and the current sell-side consensus of ~19%. Still, Bernstein said: “Investors we spoke with seemed to believe a FY26 17% growth guide would thread the needle, and be received positively.”
For FY25, the outlook is said to be more confident. Bernstein expects growth “closer to 20% vs. the initial ‘de-risked’ 16% guide.”
They believe cloud revenue should remain in the low-20% range, supported by price increases and stable seat expansion, while Data Center could grow 20%+ due to pricing strength.
“Net net: we see line of sight to 20%+ CAGR… and risk seems to be to the upside,” Bernstein concluded.
The firm believes concerns around Rovo monetization and developer employment may be “overblown,” and any downside from seat reductions “won’t materialize (and may end up a tailwind).”
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