Asia FX optimism eases with bearish yuan sentiment: Reuters poll

By Jongwoo Cheon

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Emerging Asian currencies bulls stepped back during the last two weeks with bearish sentiment on China's yuan, a Reuters poll showed.

However, positive views on regional currencies remained as the U.S. Federal Reserves on Wednesday indicated it was not in a hurry to raise interest rates although it kept the door open to a June hike.

The Bank of Japan on Thursday held monetary policy unchanged, spurring investors to dump dollar holdings against the yen and other Asian currencies.

Sentiment on the yuan turned bearish, according to the survey of 19 fund managers, currency traders and analysts conducted from Tuesday through Thursday.

That turnaround came as Chinese companies have rushed to buy dollars for overseas investments, with a slowing economy hurting local investments. [CNY/] The renminbi's views had been bullish since late March on some signs of stabilization in the world's second-largest economy.

The Malaysian ringgit's bullish bets shrank to the lowest since mid-March, the poll found.

On Tuesday, the ringgit fell to its weakest in more than a week as state fund 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) said some of its bonds were in default after missed payments.

Views on the Philippine peso turned bearish with its short positions hitting their largest since mid-February.

Foreign investors were net sellers of Manila stocks in the last three straight weeks amid fears that whoever wins the May 9 election could find it difficult to generate the economic momentum built up during President Benigno Aquino's six-year single term.

Bullish bets on the Singapore dollar continued to decline after the central bank unexpectedly eased its exchange-rate based monetary policy. The city-state's exports in March tumbled with sales to China, the United States and Europe down.

South Korea's won saw long positions halving in the last two weeks with caution growing over possible intervention by the foreign exchange authorities to stem its strength amid a slowdown in Asia's fourth-largest economy.

The won last week hit a 5-1/2-month peak on stock inflows and some speculation that the authorities may allow more appreciation ahead of a U.S. Treasury report on currency practice of major trading partners.

Optimism on the Taiwan dollar and the Thai baht almost evaporated.

Taiwan's economy likely shrank in the first three months of the year, a Reuters poll showed, which would mark the third quarter in a row that the economy has contracted on a year-on-year basis.

Sentiment on the baht deteriorated as the central bank said it is ready to act if the currency's moves affect the economy.

By contrast, the Indian rupee's bullish bets hit the largest since mid-April 2015 as local financial markets were set to see net offshore fund inflows for a second consecutive month.

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Optimism over reform momentum, after an investor-friendly budget from the federal government and a modest current account gap spurred purchases from foreign investors.

India's economy grew at a robust annual 7.3 percent in the October-December quarter, aiding gains.

The poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht.

The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars.