Global Market Wrap: Global Trade On Hold- The NFP Impact
LFB Forex
Published Dec 31, 0000 07:00PM ET
Updated Nov 06, 2009 08:10AM ET
Global Market Wrap:
Global Trade On Hold- The NFP Impact Equity Futures:
European Trade: European shares started the day with light momentum, and have managed to stay in the green. The S&P futures traded on a light momentum, ahead of the infamous NFP (U.S. payroll report), which is scheduled today at 08:30 EST.
The European markets moved jointly higher in Friday trade, with the German Dax and the U.K. FTSE up 0.20%. Stronger gains came from Finland, Norway and Luxembourg, which are trading up nearly 0.70%, with no index managing to break above the 1% benchmark level. The emerging European shares traded mixed, with Poland and Czech Republic declining, while the other markets posting minimal gains.
The daily trading range has historically been around 0.5%, and we have noticed over the last 18 months of absorbing credit crisis reactions, that +/- 1% is nearer the norm. Volatility has increased in a fashion that the break-hold-reverse-break pattern of trade has been replaced with break-and-hold. Without have a trawling net on either side of the markets, the credit crisis trading arena has not allowed for patterns to build, outside of stair-step/elevator moves, that seem to have made a +50% gain in seven months of trade, one that some have found less than enjoyable. In a new-era trading arena, a mentor is essential.
S&P futures had weak attempts to break free from the 1060.00 area, with the tentative moves retraced very quickly. The chances are that the European and S&P futures market will come to a standstill ahead of the NFP report, and only afterwards will the market be able to develop and sustain a trend.
4 Hour chart trend: Short. Main price points: 1025, and 1069.75. Looking for: Move lower
S&P futures traded higher yesterday, in perfect technical fashion, with the recent turning point between the 1055-1065 areas, as discussed. The red wave IV we were waiting on looks complete now and suggests a move lower over the next few sessions.
As such, an expected wave V may fall down to the 1011 target zone while the market trades below the 1069.75 resistance area. Wave V confirmation comes in a 1025 breakout.
Sector Moves: Following the side-ways movement seen in the major European indexes, most sectors moved up and down around the break-even line. However, the market was helped by the gains seen in the banking sector, where RBS surged 5.75%, Barclays advanced 3.30% and Credit Agricole added 3.00%.
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In addition to this, the travel & leisure sector also advanced 0.95% in Friday trade, following British Airways better than expected results. Right now, British Airways is the best gainer in the U.K. FTSE, trading up 6.5%. However, the two
French companies Lafarge and L’Oreal fell after posting weaker Q3 results. The cement producer Lafarge is trading down 2.9%, while L’Oreal fell 2.5%.
Economic Moves: Ahead, the market is wired up for the infamous NFP report, which is expected at 08:30 EST. The market is preparing for a -173K read, after the U.S. economy loss 263K jobs in September. A different number from this, either up or down, or in the revision, will have a strong effect in the global markets.
Crude oil was recently trading at $80.10 per barrel, higher by $0.45.
Crude oil Technical View: TheLFB Member Charts
4 Hour chart trend: Long. Main price points: 76.47, and 82. Looking for: Break through 81.95
The market is still pushing oil prices higher, and our wave V) of larger wave V looks to be developing. A break of the 81.95 wave III) top may appear over the next few session, which should be the key for a move near to the 84 target area.
The current wave count stays valid so long as the market trades above the 76.47, wave IV) support.
Gold was recently trading higher by $5.20 to $1094.50.
Gold Technical View: TheLFB Member Charts
4 Hour chart trend: Long. Main price points: 1026, and 1110. Looking for: Wave 5)
On the four hour gold chart, the blue wave III may already be completed around the 1095 area, as the market looks very choppy and slowat the moment. As such, traders may look for a wave IV corrective pull-back before another push higher of the final wave 5) appears.
Target of this move (blue wave V), will be somewhere around 1010.
Written By: LFB Forex
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