Forex - Weekly outlook: August 12 - 16

Investing.com - The dollar recovered from seven week lows against other major currencies on Friday, after slumping earlier in the week amid doubts over how soon the Federal Reserve will start to unwind its asset purchase program.

The dollar regained ground against the euro, with EUR/USD down 0.28% to settle at 1.3341, trimming the week’s gains to 0.64%.

The greenback came under broad selling pressure after the latest U.S. jobs report for July showed that the economy added fewer jobs than expected.

The soft data saw investors reassess expectations on when U.S. central bank would start to taper its bond buying program.

The dollar was higher against the pound, with GBP/USD sliding 0.20% to 1.5505. Sterling remained supported following the release of positive trade data for the U.K. on Friday.

The pound ended the week with gains of 0.98% after the Bank of England revised up its forecast for growth on Wednesday while giving forward guidance on interest rates. The BoE outlined plans to keep interest rates on hold at current record lows of 0.5% until the U.K. unemployment rate falls to 7%.

Elsewhere, the dollar was lower against the yen, with USD/JPY falling 0.47% to 96.24, extending the week’s losses to 2.03%. The dollar fell to a seven-week low of 95.79 against the yen on Thursday.

The Australian dollar rose to a more than one-week high against the greenback on Friday, with AUD/USD jumping 1.04% to 0.9195, after a series of data releases indicated that a slowdown in China’s economy is stabilizing. The Australian dollar fell to three-year lows of 0.8846 on Monday.

Official data on Friday showed that Chinese industrial output rose significantly more-than-forecast in July and consumer price inflation remained unchanged. Chinese trade data released Thursday showed that both imports and exports rose in June.

China is the largest market for Australian commodity exports.

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low 2.5% following its meeting on Tuesday and said it would continue to adjust monetary policy in order to foster growth and keep inflation contained.

In the week ahead, investors will be closely watching U.S. data on retail sales and consumer inflation, as well as reports from the housing and manufacturing sectors. Second quarter growth data from Japan and the euro zone will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, August 12

Japan is to release preliminary data on second quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health.

Switzerland is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

In the euro zone, France and Spain are to hold auctions of 10-year government bonds.

Tuesday, August 13

Japan is to release data on core machinery orders.  The Bank of Japan is to publish its monetary policy meeting minutes, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

Australia is to release a private sector report on business confidence.
The U.K. is to produce official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as data on economic sentiment in the wider euro zone. The euro zone is to release official data on industrial production.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish government data on retail sales, import prices and business inventories.

Wednesday, August 14

New Zealand is to release official data on retail sales, while Australia is to publish private sector data on consumer sentiment and official data on labor costs.

The euro zone is to produce preliminary data on second quarter gross domestic product, while Germany and France are to publish individual reports.

The U.K. is to release official data on the change in the number of people unemployed and the unemployment rate, as well as data on average earnings.

The ZEW Institute is to publish a report on economic expectations in Switzerland, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to release official data on producer price inflation later Wednesday.

Thursday, August 15

The U.K. is to release official data on retail sales.

Markets in Italy are to remain closed for a national holiday.

The U.S. is to release a series of economic data, with reports on consumer inflation, jobless claims, industrial production and manufacturing data from the Empire state and the Philly Fed.

Friday, August 16

The euro zone is to release official data on consumer price inflation and the trade balance.

Canada is to publish official data on manufacturing sales and foreign securities purchases.

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction sector activity, as well as data on housing starts. The University of Michigan is to release its closely watched preliminary data on consumer sentiment.