Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: November 26 - 30

Investing.com - The U.S. dollar fell to a four-week low against the Swiss franc on Friday, as market sentiment improved after the release of encouraging German economic data and amid hopes for progress on a financial aid deal for Greece.

USD/CHF hit 0.9265 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since October 23; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9277 by close of trade on Friday, 1.84% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9258, the low from October 23 and resistance at 0.9357, Friday’s high.

Market sentiment improved after Greece’s Finance Minister said the International Monetary Fund had relaxed its debt-cutting target for the country, suggesting lenders were closer to a deal for a vital aid tranche to be paid.

However, other sources involved in the talks cautioned that the funding gap was far bigger than Greece has suggested.

Talks between finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund ended without a deal on Tuesday, amid disagreements on how best to reduce the country’s debt to sustainable levels.

Investor confidence also strengthened after the German Institute for Economic Research earlier said that its index of business confidence improved to 101.4 in November from a reading of 100.0 the previous month, beating expectations for a decline to 99.5.

Elsewhere, investors continued to remain concerned over the U.S. fiscal cliff, automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1.

There are fears the U.S. economy will fall back into a recession, unless a divided Congress and the White House can work out a compromise in the six weeks left before the January 1 deadline.

In the week ahead market participants will be focusing on developments relating to the U.S. fiscal cliff, as well as Monday’s meeting of the euro group of finance ministers to discuss unlocking Greece’s next aid installment.

Investors will also be anticipating data on Swiss economic growth as well as a speech from Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 26

Switzerland is to produce official quarterly data on the employment level.

Tuesday, November 27

Switzerland is to publish an index of leading economic indicators, which is designed to predict the future direction of the economy.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to release official data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as industry data on house price inflation, an important indicator of demand in the housing sector.

In addition, the Conference Board is to publish data on U.S. consumer confidence, while Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to deliver brief remarks at the National College Fed Challenge Finals, in Washington D.C.

Wednesday, November 28

SNB President Thomas Jordan is due to speak at an event at the Economic Society, in Bern.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to release official data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as government data on crude oil inventories. Later Wednesday, the Fed is to publish its Beige Book.

Thursday, November 29

Switzerland is to publish official data on third quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to produce revised data on third quarter gross domestic product, as well as data on pending home sales and initial jobless claims.

Friday, November 30

Switzerland is to publish its KOF economic barometer, designed to predict the future direction of the economy.

Later Friday, the U.S. is to release government data on personal income, personal spending and core consumer inflation. The U.S. is also to publish official data on manufacturing activity in Chicago.