Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: November 26 - 30

Investing.com - The U.S. dollar ended Friday’s session at the lowest level in almost three-weeks against the Canadian dollar as demand for risk sensitive currencies improved after upbeat German economic data and amid new hopes for progress on a deal for Greece.

USD/CAD hit 0.9914 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since November 7; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9926 by close of trade, 0.83% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9901, the low from October 25 and resistance at 0.9980, Friday’s high.

Market sentiment improved after Greece’s Finance Minister said the International Monetary Fund had relaxed its debt-cutting target for the country, suggesting lenders were closer to a deal for a vital aid tranche to be paid.

However, other sources involved in the talks cautioned that the funding gap was far bigger than Greece has suggested.

Talks between finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund ended without a deal on Tuesday, amid disagreements on how best to reduce the country’s debt to sustainable levels.

Investor confidence also strengthened after the German Institute for Economic Research earlier said that its index of business confidence improved to 101.4 in November from a reading of 100.0 the previous month, beating expectations for a decline to 99.5.

Meanwhile, in Canada, official data showed that core consumer price inflation, which excludes the eight most volatile items, rose 0.3% in October, in line with expectations, after a 0.2% rise the previous month.

Consumer price inflation rose 0.2% last month, as expected, after a 0.2% increase in September.

Elsewhere, investors continued to remain concerned over the U.S. fiscal cliff, automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1.

There are fears the U.S. economy will fall back into a recession, unless a divided Congress and the White House can work out a compromise in the six weeks left before the January 1 deadline.

In the week ahead market participants will be focusing on developments relating to the U.S. fiscal cliff, as well as Monday’s meeting of the euro group of finance ministers to discuss unlocking Greece’s next aid installment.

Investors will also be anticipating data on Canadian economic growth.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events for that day.

Tuesday, November 27

The U.S. is to release official data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as industry data on house price inflation, an important indicator of demand in the housing sector.

In addition, the Conference Board is to publish data on U.S. consumer confidence, while Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to deliver brief remarks at the National College Fed Challenge Finals, in Washington D.C.

Wednesday, November 28

The U.S. is to release official data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as government data on crude oil inventories. Later Wednesday, the Fed is to publish its Beige Book.

Thursday, November 29

The U.S. is to produce revised data on third quarter gross domestic product, as well as data on pending home sales and initial jobless claims.

Meanwhile, Canada is to release official data on the current account, as well as government data on raw material price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

Friday, November 30

The U.S. is to release government data on personal income, personal spending and core consumer inflation. The U.S. is also to publish official data on manufacturing activity in Chicago.

Canada is to publish official data on monthly GDP growth, a leading indicator of economic health.