Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: December 12 - 16

Investing.com - The U.S. dollar was sharply lower against its Canadian counterpart on Friday, paring some of the week’s gains as market sentiment improved after an agreement on deeper economic integration in the euro zone, although the plan only partially reassured markets.

USD/CAD hit 1.0262 on Friday, the pair’s highest since November 30; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0167, edging 0.04% higher over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0084, the low of December 6 and resistance at 1.0293, the high of November 17.

European leaders agreed to increase the financial backstops to countries with debt problems by channeling EUR200 billion of funds to the International Monetary Fund. However, they postponed decision on increasing the capacity of the European Stability Mechanism until March.

U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron vetoed changes to the EU treaty after failing to secure concessions, meaning new fiscal rules will have to operate as an intergovernmental agreement.

Meanwhile, investors remained cautious amid uncertainty over whether the European Central Bank will now play a bigger role in stabilizing the region’s bond market. 

In the U.S., official data showed that the trade deficit narrowed to USD43.5 billion in November, in line with expectations, from a deficit of USD44.2 billion the previous month.

In a separate report, the University of Michigan said that its index of consumer sentiment rose more-than-expected to 67.7 in November, from 64.1 the previous month.

Earlier in the day, official data showed that Canada’s trade balance fell unexpectedly to a CAD0.9 billion deficit in October from a surplus of CAD1 billion the previous month. Analysts had expected Canada’s trade surplus to narrow to CAD0.7 billion in October.

The loonie also found support on Friday as crude oil for delivery in January rose 1.48%, to trade at USD99.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. 

Raw materials, including oil account for about half of Canada’s export revenue.

Demand for the greenback strengthened on Thursday after the U.S. Department of Labor said that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell to the lowest level since late February, tumbling to 381,000 after a reading at 404,000 the previous week.

In the week ahead, investors will be keeping a close eye on the borrowing costs of troubled euro zone states, as a rise in borrowing costs could prompt a rating cut after Standard & Poor’s warned that it may carry out a mass downgrade of 15 euro zone members, including France, Italy and Spain.

Italy and Spain are both set to auction government bonds in the coming week.

Markets will also be closely watching the Federal Reserve’s policy setting meeting on Tuesday, as concerns over the impact of the euro zone’s financial crisis on global growth continue to weigh.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, December 12

Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the possible future direction of monetary policy.

Also Monday, the U.S. is to publish official data on the federal budget balance.

Tuesday, December 13

The U.S. is to publish official data on retail sales, the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. In addition, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate.

Wednesday, December 14

Canada is to publish an index of leading indicators, designed to predict the future direction of the economy, as well as a report on manufacturing sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to produce official data on import prices and crude oil stockpiles. The data can be a big market mover for the loonie due to the size of Canada's energy sector.

Also Wednesday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is to meet to discuss a range of issues regarding energy markets, including oil production levels.

Thursday, December 15

Canada is to release government data on the capacity utilization rate.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to release a flurry of economic data, including the weekly report on initial jobless claims and data on producer price inflation. The U.S. is also to release official data on industrial production, capacity utilization, the current account, TIC long term purchases and manufacturing activity in New York and Philadelphia regions.

Friday, December 16

Canada is to publish official data on the balance of foreign investment.
The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.