Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: March 28-April 1

Investing.com - Last week saw the New Zealand dollar jump to a seven-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as optimism over the global economic recovery boosted risk appetite and bolstered demand for commodity-linked currencies.

NZD/USD hit 0.7681 on Friday, the pair's highest since February 10; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7674 by close of trade, jumping 1.9% over the week. 

The pair was likely to find support at 0.7581, Thursday's low and resistance at 0.7721, the high of February 10.

The U.S. Department of Labor said Friday that payrolls rose by 216,000 in March after a 194,000 gain the prior month, outstripping expectations for a 188,000 increase. The unemployment rate unexpectedly slid to a two-year low of 8.8%, from 8.9% in February, the Labor Department said.

Also Friday, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said that the country’s Purchasing Managers Index rose for the first time in four months in March, climbing to 53.4 from 52.2 in February. China is New Zealand’s second largest trading partner.

The upbeat data fuelled optimism over the economic growth of the world’s two largest economies.

Also last week, official data showed that New Zealand posted its first trade surplus in eight months in February, swinging to a surplus of NZD194 million from a deficit of NZD3 million in January, as record-high commodity prices boosted exports.

In the week ahead, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy setting meeting, while the U.S. is to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, New Zealand is to produce data on business confidence.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 4

In the U.S., Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at a public engagement; his comments will be closely watched for clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Meanwhile, New Zealand is to publish data on business confidence, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, April 5

The Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of the most recent policy setting meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The minutes contain in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

In addition, the U.S. Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on service sector growth, a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, April 6

The U.S. is to produce weekly data on crude oil inventories.

Thursday, April 7

The U.S. is to publish a key weekly report on initial jobless claims, the nation’s earliest employment data as well as data on consumer credit and natural gas inventories.

Friday, April 8

The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on wholesale inventories, an important indicator of future business spending.