Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: February 23 - 27

Investing.com - The pound edged lower against the dollar on Friday as weaker-than-expected domestic retail sales data weighed and eased back from seven-year peaks against the euro after Greece secured an agreement with the euro zone to extend its bailout by four months.

GBP/USD was down 0.12% to 1.5394 in late trade, off Wednesday’s seven-week highs of 1.5479.

The drop in sterling came after the Office for National Statistics said U.K. retail sales fell 0.3% in December, compared to forecasts of a 0.2% decline. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales rose 5.4%, falling slightly short of expectations of 5.9%.

Another report showed that the U.K. public finance surplus, excluding banks, rose to £8.8 billion, up 35% from a year earlier, but slightly short of a forecast surplus of £9.0 billion.

The pound’s losses were held in check after data earlier in the week showing that pay growth easily outstripped inflation in the last three months of 2014.

Meanwhile, the minutes of the Bank of England’s February meeting showed that while policymakers voted unanimously to keep rates unchanged this month one monetary policy committee member believes the BoE it is as likely to loosen monetary policy as tighten it.

EUR/GBP was up 0.14% to 0.7385 in late trade, after falling to lows of 0.7340 earlier, the weakest since January 2008.

The single currency found support after the euro zone approved the extension of Greece’s €240 billion bailout, removing concerns that the country would face a liquidity crunch when its current bailout agreement expired at the end of the month.

Markets have been hit by growing concerns over a possible Greek exit from the euro area if the country missed a debt payment.

Athens has until Monday to present a list of reforms to be approved by the country’s creditors in order to secure the four-month bailout extension, which will give it more time to reach a lasting agreement with its creditors.

Earlier Friday, data showed that euro zone private sector activity expanded at the fastest pace in seven months in February, but firms continued cutting prices, underlining concerns over persistently low levels of inflation.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 94.40 late Friday.

Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting showed that some officials thought that raising rates too soon could weigh on the U.S. economic recovery, and that a deterioration in the global economic outlook could also pose a threat to the recovery.

In the coming week, Tuesday’s testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen to the Senate Banking Committee will be closely watched for any indication on when U.S. interest rates may start to rise.

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Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of this and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 23

The U.K. is to release private sector data on retail sales.

Later Monday, the U.S. is to publish a report on existing home sales.

Tuesday, February 24

The U.S. is to produce a private sector report on consumer confidence. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington.

Wednesday, February 25

The U.S. is to release data on new home sales.

Thursday, February 26

The U.S. is to release data on the consumer price index, as well as reports on initial jobless claims and durable goods orders.

Friday, February 27

The U.K. is to release revised figures on fourth quarter economic growth, as well as preliminary data on business investment.

The U.S. is to round up the week with revised data on fourth quarter growth, as well as reports on pending home sales, business activity in the Chicago region and consumer sentiment.