Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: April 11-15

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar fell for a second week against the euro last week, plummeting to a 15-month low, after the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time since the onset of the global financial crisis.

EUR/USD hit 1.4242 on Thursday; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.4482 by close of trade on Friday, rallying 1.74% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.4242, Thursday’s low and short-term resistance at 1.4577, the high of January 13, 2010.

On Thursday, the ECB increased its key interest rate for the first time since July 2008 to 1.25% from 1%.

“We did not decide that it was the first of a series of interest-rate increases,” ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said, following the rate decision. “We will continue to do in the future” what is appropriate “to ensure price stability,” he said.

The rate increase came less that 24 hours after Portugal became the third euro zone member, after Greece and Ireland to seek a bailout from the European Union. The size of the package was expected to be as much as EUR80 billion.

The dollar remained under broad selling pressure after on Friday as the White House and Congress attempted to break a U.S. budget deadlock in order to avoid a government shutdown.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking towards March U.S. retail sales data to gauge the strength of consumer spending, as well as U.S. data on consumer and producer price inflation.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 11

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy. Also Monday, Federal Reserve Governor Janet Yellen is to speak.

Tuesday, April 12

In the euro zone, the ZEW Centre for Economic Research is to publish a report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to release government data on its trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services, as well as a report on import prices, an important indicator of inflation. The U.S. is also to publish monthly data on the federal budget balance.

Wednesday, April 13

The euro zone is to publish official data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish government data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The country is also to publish official data on business inventories and crude oil stockpiles while the Federal Reserve is to publish its Beige Book.

Thursday, April 14

In the euro zone, the ECB is to publish its monthly bulletin, which provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank's viewpoint.

The U.S. is to publish official data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation. The country is also to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims, an important signal of overall economic health.

Friday, April 15

The euro zone is to publish official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation.

The U.S. is to publish official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation. In addition, the U.S. is to publish official data on industrial production and the capacity utilization rate, while the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is to publish its manufacturing index. The U.S. is also to publish a report on the balance of domestic and foreign investment, while the University of Michigan is to publish preliminary data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.