Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: May 16-20

Investing.com – Last week saw the Australian dollar decline against its U.S. counterpart for a second week, dropping to a three-week low on Friday as concerns over a slowdown in demand for commodities pushed the growth-linked currency lower.

AUD/USD hit 1.0519 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since April 20; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0570 by close of trade, slumping 1.35% over the week.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.0442, the low of April 19 and resistance at 1.0716, Friday’s high.

The Aussie fell sharply on Wednesday as weaker-than-expected industrial output data from China sparked concerns that Chinese economic growth was slowing, triggering fears over a slowdown in demand for commodities. China is Australia’s largest trading partner.

Meanwhile, a government report on Thursday showed an unexpected drop in Australian employment in April, dampening expectations for an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

The number of employed Australians fell by 22,100 in April, confounding expectations for an increase of 17,000. The unemployment rate held steady at a seasonally adjust 4.9%, in line with expectations.

News that China raised reserve requirements for lenders for the fifth time in 2011 in an effort to curb inflation also weighed in the Aussie.

The Aussie added to losses on Friday as weaker commodity prices and mounting fears over a potential default for Greece’s debt weighed on risk appetite.

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to publish government data on housing and employment while both the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia are to publish the minutes of their most recent policy meeting.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Friday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, May 16

Australia is to publish official data on home loans, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market, as well as a report on new vehicle sales.

The Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the possible future direction of monetary policy. The U.S. is also to publish government data on the balance of domestic and foreign investment as well as data on manufacturing activity in New York state.

Tuesday, May 17

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy meeting. The minutes give in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on where to set interest rates.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish official data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity as well as data on housing starts, a leading indicator of economic health. The country is also to publish government reports on the capacity utilization rate and industrial production.

Wednesday, May 18

Australia is to publish a report on consumer sentiment as well as official data on its wage price index, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

Later in the day, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy meeting. The minutes give in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on where to set interest rates. The U.S. is also to publish government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, May 19

Australia is to publish a report on inflation expectations.

The U.S. is to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as industry data on existing home sales and official data on manufacturing activity in Philadelphia.