EMERGING MARKETS-Rebound on euro zone data, Fed comments

Reuters

Published Aug 13, 2009 07:03AM ET

* Emerging markets rebound on euro zone data, Fed

* Commodities boosts South African rand and Russia rouble

* Romania leu down post-GDP data; Ukraine hrynvia falls

By Sebastian Tong

LONDON, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Emerging markets rebounded on Thursday after two successive days of losses, boosted by forecast-beating euro zone growth figures and the Federal Reserve's optimism over the U.S. economy.

Russia's rouble made its biggest gain versus a dollar-euro basket in three weeks amid resurgent commodity prices which also prompted an over one-percent jump in South Africa's rand ahead of a central bank rate cut decision later in the day.

Germany and France surprised investors with data showing that two of Europe's largest economies had returned to economic growth in the second quarter to end their recessions earlier than expected. [ID:nLD331672]

The news provided a further lift to sentiment which steadied after the Fed said the U.S. economy was stabilising two years into the deepest financial crisis in decades. [ID:nN1272730]

Emerging shares shrugged off recent-day worries about credit-tightening in China to rise 1.7 percent by 1130 GMT while emerging sovereign debt spreads <11EMJ> tightened 4 basis points to trade at 357 bps over U.S. Treasuries.

"The feel-good factor is back. It was a short shake out that probably reduced positions quite suddenly and now people are rebuilding (their positions) again," said Beat Siegenthaler, chief strategist emerging markets at TD Securities.

"It does seem that most people are now convinced that we are in a recovery phase and I think many bears are bitterly disappointed -- after two days of falls we seem to be back in a bullish phase. I think it will force more people to come in."

Czech shares <.PX> rose over 3 percent to test 10-month highs while Turkish shares .XU100 were up 2.7 percent to resume their climb towards 18-month highs.

The improved global economic outlook strengthened commodity prices which helped South African shares <.JTOPI> rise 1.8 percent to snap a six-day losing streak and drove Russian shares <.IRTS> 3.5 percent higher.

RAND, ROUBLE

Higher commodity prices also bolstered the South African rand, which jumped over 1 percent against the dollar , and the Russian rouble which reversed seven consecutive sessions of losses to rise over 1.4 percent versus its dollar-euro basket .

South Africa's central bank is expected to hold the key repo rate to stay on hold at 7.5 percent as inflation remains a concern. [ID:22371]

Emerging European currencies were broadly firmer as sharpened global risk appetite helped offset disappointing growth figures from the region.

The Czech crown held its ground against the euro despite weaker-than-expected June retail sales figures while the Hungarian forint rose 0.5 percent despite a record 7.6-percent economic contraction in the second quarter, a faster drop than most analysts had anticipated. [ID:nLD653897]

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Romania's leu, however, eased against the euro as news of its 9.8 percent second-quarter GDP fall underscored the likelihood of further interest rate cuts.

Ukraine's hryvnia was quoted down 1.4 percent to a five-month low against the dollar .

The central bank, which has limited its intervention to sales of the dollar only to those needing to redeem banking or state debts, stepped in on Thursday to offer to sell dollars. [ID:nLD440235]

"We remain cautious on commodities and therefore see some pressure developing on (Ukraine's) balance of payments and believe that this could put the currency and the credit under pressure," said BNP Paribas in a note. (Additional reporting by Sujata Rao; Editing by Andy Bruce)

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