Reuters
Published May 26, 2016 03:12AM ET
Asia FX pessimism deepens on Fed rate hike view, China uncertainty
By Jongwoo Cheon
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Bearish sentiment toward emerging Asian currencies deepened in the last two weeks as speculation of an imminent U.S. interest rate hike grew and as confusion flared again over China's foreign exchange policy, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
Top Federal Reserve officials have recently suggested the U.S. central bank may raise borrowing costs as early as June or July on encouraging economic data, boosting the dollar and forcing global investors to price in a near-term tightening.
Markets had seen the odds for a June hike at almost zero after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said in late March that the central bank may not hurry to raise interest rates.
Pessimistic bets on the Chinese yuan
The renminbi on Wednesday hit a 3-1/2-month low as China's central bank set its daily guidance rate at a five-year trough, reflecting the dollar's broad strength. The People's Bank of China has often fixed the midpoint in line with the greenback's movements. [CNY/]
Worries are also growing that a promising improvement seen in Chinese economic data earlier this year may be fizzling out.
Sentiment on the South Korean won
The won on Tuesday fell to its weakest in more than two months as the Bank of Korea is predicted to cut interest rates to help Asia's fourth-largest economy weather the aftermath of restructuring of shipbuilding and shipping industries.
Sentiment toward the Indian rupee INR=D2 turned pessimistic for the first time since mid-March, with its short positions at a three-month peak, on worries that a Fed hike may spur capital outflows. Importers' dollar demand also weighed on the currency.
Views on Indonesia's rupiah
Foreign investors have swung to being net sellers of Indonesian government bonds so far this month after increasing holdings of the country's debts over the previous seven months.
Standard & Poor's, which raised its outlook on the country's speculative-grade sovereign rating to positive from stable last year, is expected to announce the results of its rating review for the country this month.
Malaysia's ringgit
Investigations on a scandal-hit Malaysian government fund also widened. Singapore closed down BSI's operations in the city-state, while Switzerland began criminal proceedings against the private bank, in the biggest international crackdown on financial entities dealing with 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB).
The Thai baht's
The Taiwan dollar's
Bearish bets on Singapore's dollar SGD=D3 rose to the largest since early February as the city-state on Wednesday cut its export forecasts for this year after the trade-reliant economy barely grew in the first quarter.
The poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso
The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars.
Written By: Reuters
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