High inflation clouds Philippine growth outlook in 2023, IMF says

Reuters

Published Oct 03, 2023 03:41AM ET

Updated Oct 03, 2023 05:01AM ET

By Mikhail Flores and Karen Lema

MANILA (Reuters) -The Philippine economy is on track to expand this year, but probably at a slower clip, as stubbornly high inflation may warrant a "higher-for-longer policy rate path," the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday.

The Fund said it cut its growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.3% from a July estimate of 6.2%, following a slowdown in second quarter growth, while inflation is expected to stay elevated, hurting consumer demand.

For the year, the IMF expects Philippine inflation to average close to 6.0%, before easing to close to 3.5% in 2024, which would probably require the central bank to hold on to higher interest rates.

"Thus, a higher-for-longer policy rate path is warranted until inflation firmly falls within the target range, alongside a tightening bias to anchor inflation expectations," the Fund said in a statement.

The central bank has kept interest rates steady at its last two meetings, but left the door open to further rate hikes to bring inflation back to its target of 2.0% to 4.0% for the year, after it quickened in August to 5.3%.