Love for Trump Led to Baby Boom in Republican Counties in 2016
Bloomberg
Published Jul 28, 2021 12:39PM ET
Updated Jul 28, 2021 01:00PM ET
Love for Trump Led to Baby Boom in Republican Counties in 2016
(Bloomberg) -- Mothers in Republican-leaning counties saw a baby boost over their Democratic counterparts after former President Donald Trump’s surprise 2016 victory, suggesting partisanship is following people to the bedroom.
In the year after Trump’s win, Republican-leaning counties saw an increase in fertility relative to Democratic-leaning ones, according to a paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research. This equaled a 1.1 percentage-point difference in annual births, or roughly 23,000 excess babies in GOP counties that the authors tie to optimism over the election’s results.
The effects also continued for the following two years for which data were available.
What’s more, the gap was bigger in heavily partisan counties. The fertility gap between extreme Republican and extreme Democratic counties was 2.6 percentage points, according to the authors, Gordon Dahl and William Mullins of the University of California San Diego and Runjing Lu of the University of Alberta.
Hispanic mothers also saw significantly fewer births than non-Hispanics, the authors wrote, noting some of the former president’s harsh rhetoric toward immigrants during his campaign.
For some context, there was no partisan effect on fertility after former President Barack Obama’s 2008 victory, although the onset of the Great Recession complicated the data. The authors found some evidence that relative fertility fell in Democratic counties after former President George W. Bush’s 2000 win.
The states with the highest birth rates shortly after the election were Utah, Alaska and the Dakotas.
©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Get The News You Want
Written By: Bloomberg
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.