Factbox-What to expect in 2024: Forecasts for GDP, inflation and other assets
Reuters
Published Apr 18, 2024 12:38PM ET
(Reuters) -Global growth will likely slow this year and major central banks across the globe have indicated interest rate cuts this year.
Following are forecasts from some major banks on economic growth, inflation, and how they expect certain asset classes to perform:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024
GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO UK INDIA
AREA
Goldman 2.8% 5.0% 0.7% 0.6% 6.6%
Sachs
3.1%
Morgan 2.8% 1.9% 4.2% 0.5% -0.1% 6.4%
Stanley
UBS Global 2.6% 1.1% 4.4% 0.6% 0.6% 6.2%
Wealth
Management*
Barclays 2.6% 1.2% 4.4% 0.3% 0.1% 6.2%
J.P.Morgan 2.2% 1.6% 5.2% 0.4% 0.3% 5.7%
BofA Global 4.8% 0.3% 5.7%
Research 0.4%
2.9% 2.7%
Deutsche 2.4% 0.6% 4.7% 0.2% 0.3% 6.0%
Bank
Citigroup 1.9% 1.0% 4.6% -0.2% 0.1% 6.3%
HSBC 4.9% 0.5%
2.6% 2.3% 0.4% 6.3%
UBS Global 3.0% 2.2% 4.6% 0.6% - -
Research*
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U.S. INFLATION
U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in March as Americans continued to pay more for gasoline and rental housing, leading financial markets to anticipate that the Federal Reserve would delay cutting interest rates until September.
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024)
Headline CPI Core PCE
Goldman Sachs 2.50%
2.5%
Morgan Stanley 2.10% 2.70%
Wells Fargo 2.60%
Investment 3.0%
Institute
Barclays 2.70% 2.4%
J.P.Morgan 2.50% 2.50%
BofA Global 2.50%
Research 3.5%
Deutsche Bank 2.10%
Citigroup 2.0% 3.0%
HSBC
3.4%
-----
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
S&P 500 US 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/C
target yield NY
target
Goldman Sachs 5,200 4.00% 1.12 145 7.05
Morgan Stanley 4,500 1 140 7.5
UBS Global 5,000 3.50% 1.12 140 7.00
Wealth
Management*
Wells Fargo 4.25-4.75% 1.06-1.10
Investment 5,100-5,300
Institute 156-160
Barclays 5,300 4.25% 1.09 145 7.20
J.P.Morgan 4,200 3.75% 1.13 146 7.25
BofA Global 5,400 4.25% 1.15 142 6.90
Research
Deutsche Bank 5,100 4.10% 1.10 135
Citigroup 5,100 4.30% 1.02 135 7.25
HSBC 5,400 3.00% 1.05 7.10
145
Oppenheimer
5,500
UBS Global 5,400 3.6% 1.12 140 7.00
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Research*
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
Written By: Reuters
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