US dollar rises as strong data push against dovish policy narrative
Reuters
Published Jul 27, 2023 12:53AM ET
Updated Jul 27, 2023 04:37PM ET
By Laura Matthews
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar strengthened against the euro on Thursday, after better-than-expected U.S. economic data continue to foil investors' expectation for relatively dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.
A recent string of strong data show that, for now, the U.S. is staving off a recession, increasing the likelihood that the Fed could further hike interest rates if it continues to see strong economic numbers across the board.
The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter as labor market resilience underpinned consumer spending, while businesses boosted investment in equipment, potentially keeping a recession at bay.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 221,000 for the week ended July 22, the lowest level since February, according to a Labor Department report. Economists had forecast 235,000 claims for the latest week.
"The market is of the view that things will slow down pretty rapidly in the U.S. And the market is instead somewhat more constructive on the rest of the world," said Alvise Marino, macro strategist at Credit Suisse in New York.
"It doesn't take a lot to upset those expectations. Today's numbers very much reinforced that."
The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers, rose 0.692% to 101.790, while the euro is down 1.06% to $1.0965.
Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened 0.77% versus the dollar at 139.14, after a report that the Bank of Japan will discuss tweaking its yield curve control policy at a meeting on Friday.
The BOJ is largely seen maintaining its ultra-loose policy stance, although a tweak to the policy remains a possibility.
"The market is generally positioned in a way that it is prepared for the possibility that the BOJ might do something that is relatively hawkish," said Marino.
The BOJ is that last in a trio of central banks to hold policy meetings in a week where both the Fed and the European Central Bank raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point, as expected.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell left open the possibility of another hike in September, and the ECB kept its options open on whether more increases will be needed to bring down inflation even as evidence of a slowdown in Europe is mounting.
Loan demands hit a record low in the second quarter, business confidence has deteriorated in Germany, and disappointing Purchasing Manager Indexes came in below expectations for the euro zone as a whole.
"You've got this weakness in the data from the euro zone and more resilience from the U.S. That just questions why the market's being so long of the euro whilst it's questioning the ability of the dollar to hold its ground," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy, Rabobank London.
Get The News You Want
"I think that the resilience of the U.S. economy should counter some of the bearishness that the dollar has been seeing in recent weeks."
Meanwhile, Sterling was last trading at $1.2783, down 1.21% .
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin last fell 1.41% to $29,159.00, and Ethereum last fell 1.04% to $1,860.50.
========================================================
Currency bid prices at 4:01PM (2001 GMT)
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Dollar index
101.7900 101.1000 +0.69% -1.643% +101.8400 +100.5400
Euro/Dollar
$1.0967 $1.1086 -1.07% +2.35% +$1.1150 +$1.0966
Dollar/Yen
139.1350 140.2450 -0.80% +6.12% +141.3050 +138.7700
Euro/Yen
152.59 155.45 -1.84% +8.76% +156.2300 +152.2000
Dollar/Swiss
0.8698 0.8606 +1.06% -5.94% +0.8698 +0.8554
Sterling/Dollar
$1.2784 $1.2940 -1.19% +5.72% +$1.2995 +$1.2782
Dollar/Canadian
1.3235 1.3206 +0.23% -2.31% +1.3243 +1.3159
Aussie/Dollar
$0.6701 $0.6760 -0.86% -1.69% +$0.6821 +$0.6699
Euro/Swiss
0.9539 0.9540 -0.01% -3.60% +0.9556 +0.9523
Euro/Sterling
0.8577 0.8565 +0.14% -3.02% +0.8599 +0.8545
NZ
Dollar/Dollar $0.6175 $0.6210 -0.52% -2.71% +$0.6273 +$0.6175
Dollar/Norway
10.1970 10.1460 +0.55% +3.95% +10.2030 +9.9990
Euro/Norway
11.1793 11.2059 -0.24% +6.53% +11.2659 +11.1101
Dollar/Sweden
10.5283 10.3921 +0.16% +1.16% +10.5288 +10.3004
Euro/Sweden
11.5408 11.5224 +0.16% +3.51% +11.5525 +11.4731
Written By: Reuters
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.