China's exports seen rising in April but at slower pace, outlook challenging

Reuters

Published May 08, 2023 01:29AM ET

Updated May 08, 2023 03:10AM ET

By Joe Cash

BEIJING (Reuters) -China's exports were expected to have risen again in April, albeit at a less robust pace than a month earlier, a Reuters poll showed, supported by unfulfilled orders after last year's COVID disruptions though slowing global growth is darkening the outlook.

Outbound shipments last month from the world's second largest economy is expected to show growth of 8.0% year-on-year, following an unexpected surge of 14.8% in March, according to the median forecast of 27 economists in the poll finalised on Monday.

Imports are still expected to paint a less favourable picture of the overall economy, with economists predicting no growth, similar to April, 2022, after falling by 1.4% year-on-year in March.

The trade data will be released on Tuesday.

With many of China's major trade partners on the brink of recession, analysts remain wary about the outlook, noting that the stunning improvement in March partly reflects suppliers catching up with unfulfilled orders from last year's COVID disruptions.

The cautious stance was backed by the recent official manufacturing purchasing managers' index for April showing new export orders contracting sharply and underlining the challenge facing Chinese policymakers and businesses hoping for a robust post-COVID economic recovery.

"We believe March's 14.8% year on year growth is unsustainable and monthly export growth may drop to low single-digit or even into negative territory again," Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, wrote in a note, citing a slowing global economy and rising geopolitical tensions.

South Korean exports to China, a leading indicator of China's imports, were down 26.5% in April, continuing 10 consecutive months of decline.