Stocks, dollar gain ahead of key inflation data this week
Reuters
Published Aug 06, 2023 08:27PM ET
Updated Aug 07, 2023 04:41PM ET
By Herbert Lash
NEW YORK (Reuters) -A gauge of global equities rose and the dollar edged higher on Monday, reversing downward moves after a mixed U.S. jobs report last week, as investors await U.S. and Chinese inflation data that could test the stock market's recovery this year.
The dollar recovered from a one-week low on Friday following data showing the U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in July, while solid wage gains and a drop in the unemployment rate suggested the Federal Reserve may keep rates higher for longer.
Additional interest rate hikes would likely be needed in order to lower inflation to the Fed's 2% target, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Monday in remarks that largely repeated what she told a banking group on Saturday.
The dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency against six peers, edged up 0.03%, while Treasury yields were mixed, with shorter-dated notes falling and long-dated securities rising.
A U.S. economy growing more than expected has pushed aside fears of a recession, but rising bond yields pose a risk to equity investors, said Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners in New York.
"The bond market is coming back into the driver's seat again," Colmar said, much as it was in 2022. "If the cost of capital isn't the thing causing economic damage here, as everybody predicted - and our framework suggests it isn't - then it's pretty hard to argue for rate cuts."
The yield on two-year Treasuries, which typically reflect interest rate expectations, fell 1 basis points to 4.781%, while the yield on benchmark 10-year notes rose 3.3 basis points to 4.095%.
"Rate cuts have been pushed out - not until the end of first quarter of next year is the expectation," said Kevin Flanagan, head of fixed-income strategy at WisdomTree in New York. "After a long bout of trying to counter some of the narrative you were seeing from the Fed, Treasuries are now coming around to a meeting of the minds ... that rates will more than likely be higher for longer."
Futures imply only a 13.5% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, but expectations rise to 30.1% in November. A rate cut below 5% is not expected until May 1, 2024.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe closed up 0.50%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index eked out 0.09% gain.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.16%, the S&P 500 gained 0.90% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.61%.
"It's not just tech anymore. Basically it was all tech all the time through May 31st," said Rhys Williams, chief strategist at Sprouting Rock Asset Management in Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania.
CORPORATE RESULTS BEAT LOWERED EXPECTATIONS
Without the outsized returns of the megacap stocks in the first five months of the year, the remaining S&P 500 would have sported a negative year-to-date price return.
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U.S. corporate results have beaten greatly lowered expectations. With roughly 90% of S&P 500 earnings reported, results are 4% better than consensus estimates, with more than 79% of companies beating the Street, according to Refinitiv I/B/E/S data.
Results due this week include Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) and News Corp (NASDAQ:NWSA).
Data on the U.S. consumer price index to be released Thursday is forecast to show headline inflation picking up slightly in July to an annual 3.3%, while the core rate is seen unchanged at 4.8%, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
"I am expecting a good CPI print this week. So that will help sentiment," Williams said. "The surprise could be positive as the only thing that really worked against you this past month was oil and gas."
Analysts have argued that Treasury supply hitting the market could pressure rates higher, as bond prices fall.
The Treasury Department plans on selling $103 billion in Treasuries this week as it faces a growing deficit and the need to balance the overall profile of its debt issues. Fitch last week downgraded the United States' credit rating.
The shift in yields has aided the dollar. The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1001, and the yen weakened 0.50% to 142.49 per dollar.
Gold prices slid after the hawkish comments from the Fed's Bowman. U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% lower at $1,970.00 an ounce. [GOL/]
Oil prices fell as a sustained rally driven by OPEC's most recent production cut ran into the approaching end of higher demand from the U.S. market, traders said.
U.S. crude fell 88 cents to settle at $81.94 a barrel, while Brent settled down 90 cents at $85.34.
Written By: Reuters
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