USDA redaction of trade analysis causes concern about report integrity

By Julie Ingwersen and Leah Douglas

CHICAGO/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Analysts voiced concerns this week about the integrity of U.S. Department of Agriculture reports after the agency delayed a report and excluded findings that point to tariffs as a reason for a forecasted increase in the agricultural trade deficit, according to Reuters interviews with four analysts.

The administration of President Donald Trump has pledged to shrink the farm trade deficit and has said tariffs will strengthen the farm economy, but farm groups have been critical of the approach. 

The agency's delay of a quarterly agricultural trade report and exclusion of its typical explanatory text were concerning because the moves raised questions about the objectivity of the data, two analysts said.

"The trade is uneasy about USDA statistics now," said Charlie Sernatinger, head of grains with Marex, a brokerage and financial services company.     

A USDA spokesperson said the report was delayed by an internal review. 

"The report was hung up in internal clearance process and was not finalized in time for its typical deadline. Given this report is not statutory as with many other reports USDA does, the department is undergoing a review of all of its non-statutory reports, including this one, to determine next steps," the spokesperson said.

The quarterly trade outlook report jointly published by the USDA's Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service was scheduled to be released on May 29. Shortly before it was set to publish, its authors were told to stop its release, according to a source familiar with the situation. 

The authors were then questioned by leaders at the ERS, FAS and USDA Office of the Chief Economist about the report's attribution of the growing agriculture trade deficit to tariffs and sentiments like "Buy Canadian" that have reduced demand for U.S. goods, the source said. In the delayed report released on Monday, the USDA raised its forecast of the U.S. agriculture trade deficit for fiscal-year 2025 to $49.5 billion, from the $49 billion it previously forecast in February.

The version of the report published on Monday contains correct and unaltered data, the source said, but excludes explanatory text typically contained in the forecasts. 

The report delay and redaction were first reported by Politico.

Such trade reports would typically be reviewed by communications and policy staff, but the removal of the explanatory text was highly unusual, according to a second source familiar with the report publication process.

Two other analysts said they were confident in the USDA data for now, but expressed concern about how Trump's disruption of the federal government could affect future reports. 

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"Departures of key personnel limit the ability of agencies to collect and analyze information," said Patrick Westhoff, director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri. 

The USDA has lost about 27% of ERS employees and 14% of FAS employees to terminations or voluntary incentives to leave the agency as the Trump administration works to reduce the size and cost of the federal government, according to Reuters reporting.

The U.S. had an agricultural trade surplus for decades but in recent years, imports of high-value goods like alcohol, fruits and vegetables have driven a growing deficit, according to USDA data.