Japan’s Exports Fall for Fifth Month Amid Trade Tensions

Bloomberg  |  Author 

Published May 21, 2019 08:03PM ET

Updated May 21, 2019 08:30PM ET

Japan’s Exports Fall for Fifth Month Amid Trade Tensions

(Bloomberg) -- Japanese exports fell for a fifth straight month in April, offering the latest sign that China’s slowdown and its trade conflict with the U.S. are continuing to weigh on Japan’s economy.

The value of shipments abroad declined 2.4% in April from a year earlier, according to the finance ministry. Economists had forecast a 1.6% drop, following a 2.4% slide the previous month. Separate data showed machinery orders, a leading indicator of capital spending, rose for a second month in March, gaining 3.8% from the previous month.

Key Insights

  • The figures should offer insight into how trade will affect the economy in the current quarter, after an abrupt fall in imports in the first quarter skewed Japan’s gross domestic product figures to show unexpected economic growth despite export weakness.
  • Economic data is currently under close scrutiny amid speculation that a tax hike scheduled for October might be postponed due to concerns over the strength of the economy.
  • The outlook for exports is gloomy given an escalation in the U.S.-China trade war in May that may weigh more heavily on Japan’s shipments to the world’s second-largest economy.
  • The figures come ahead of a visit by U.S. President Donald Trump to Japan starting this weekend. Trade talks are likely to be on the agenda when he meets Prime Minister Shinzo Abe with any mention of agriculture, currencies or car tariffs to generate high interest.

What Bloomberg’s Economist Says

“The U.S.-China trade war is hardly good for an exporter like Japan. But, taking a ‘glass half full’ view, it’s not all bad. As we’ve noted, there are some opportunities for nimble Japanese businesses.”

Yuki Masujima, economist Click here to read more

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  • Imports rose 6.4% in April, indicating a drag on the economy at the start of the second quarter.
  • The trade balance was a surplus of 60.4 billion yen in April, versus a median forecast for a 232.7 billion yen surplus.
  • Exports to China decreased 6.3% in April, while shipments to the U.S. climbed 9.6% and sales to Europe retreated 2.6%.