German Economy Stutters As Exports And Production Drop

(Reuters) - German exports fell sharply in November and industrial output also declined, suggesting Europe's largest economy ended 2014 on a weak note.

Seasonally-adjusted exports dropped for a second consecutive month, dipping 2.1 percent, while imports pushed up 1.5 percent, narrowing the trade surplus to 17.7 billion euros, data from the Federal Statistics Office showed on Friday.

Economists polled by Reuters had been expecting a more modest fall in exports of 0.2 percent.

Industrial output decreased by 0.1 percent as construction activity weakened and energy production fell, separate data from the Economy Ministry showed. The headline figure was weaker than a consensus forecast for a 0.4 percent increase.

"Things are certainly not rosy. The geopolitical situation, especially the Russia conflict and the related economic uncertainty, is limiting growth," said Alexander Krueger, an economist at Bankhaus Lampe.

He added that while production - which rose by 1.0 percent in the less volatile two-month comparison - probably boosted gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter, the economy was unlikely to have grown by more than 0.2 percent between October and December.

The disappointing figures came after data on Thursday showed demand for German industrial goods declining, with orders plunging 2.4 percent due to fewer bookings for big-ticket items.

Most economists expect Germany to post only modest growth in the fourth quarter, rounding off a disappointing year which saw the economy contract in the second quarter and barely grow in the third.

There have been some positive signs for fourth-quarter growth though. Sentiment indicators took a turn for the better late last year and retail sales climbed in October and November.

Full-year 2014 GDP data is due on Thursday. The government has forecast 1.2 percent growth.

While Germany has traditionally been an export-oriented economy, shipments abroad have suffered this year as demand from weakened euro zone trading partners faltered and crises abroad hurt business

confidence, leading to investment delays.

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A breakdown of unadjusted trade data showed shipments to the European Union, Germany's largest export market, increasing by 4.8 percent in November compared to the same period last year, while exports to countries outside of Europe dropped by 3.0 percent.